If you’re a supporter of Initiative 522 like we are, you’ll be glad to know that Yes on I-522’s share of the vote is still headed upwards on the eve of the fifth day of ballot counting, and now stands at 47.85%. That’s an improvement of more than two full percentage points since Election Night, which is cool to see.
In addition, two more counties have joined the Yes camp: Clallam and Snohomish. Clallam is now backing the initiative, 50.09% to 49.91%. On Election Night, it was rejecting I-522, 52.5% to 47.5%. The story in Snohomish is similar. Just three days ago it was against I-522, but now it’s in the Yes column.
50.7% voters in Snohomish are for I-522 as of the latest tally. 49.3% are opposed. On Election Night, 51.7% were opposed and 48.3% were for.
Two more counties may potentially flip before the election is certified: Kitsap and Island. In Kitsap County, I-522 is down by only one hundred and twenty-two votes; in Island County, the initiative is behind by only two hundred and five votes.
Despite these gains, we still anticipate that I-522 will be defeated, because it started out too far behind on Election Night. The number of outstanding ballots is dropping, which means there will be fewer and fewer ballots tabulated and added to the tally in the days ahead. There are 147,688 ballots waiting to be processed as of tonight, according to the Secretary of State. Most of those are in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties (the three most populous).
I-522 presently trails by 68,135 votes. To make up that gap, Yes on I-522 would need to capture more than 73% of the remaining 147,688 ballots. We think that is unlikely to occur. The margin will continue to tighten, but when the election is certified, I-522 will be defeated, unfortunately. It probably would have passed handily had it been on the ballot last year.