NPI's Cascadia Advocate

Offering commentary and analysis from Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Friday, November 8th, 2013

Initiative 522 gets another boost as Snohomish and Clallam join the Yes column

If you’re a sup­port­er of Ini­tia­tive 522 like we are, you’ll be glad to know that Yes on I‑522’s share of the vote is still head­ed upwards on the eve of the fifth day of bal­lot count­ing, and now stands at 47.85%. That’s an improve­ment of more than two full per­cent­age points since Elec­tion Night, which is cool to see.

In addi­tion, two more coun­ties have joined the Yes camp: Clal­lam and Sno­homish. Clal­lam is now back­ing the ini­tia­tive, 50.09% to 49.91%. On Elec­tion Night, it was reject­ing I‑522, 52.5% to 47.5%. The sto­ry in Sno­homish is sim­i­lar. Just three days ago it was against I‑522, but now it’s in the Yes col­umn.

50.7% vot­ers in Sno­homish are for I‑522 as of the lat­est tal­ly. 49.3% are opposed. On Elec­tion Night, 51.7% were opposed and 48.3% were for.

Two more coun­ties may poten­tial­ly flip before the elec­tion is cer­ti­fied: Kit­sap and Island. In Kit­sap Coun­ty, I‑522 is down by only one hun­dred and twen­ty-two votes; in Island Coun­ty, the ini­tia­tive is behind by only two hun­dred and five votes.

Despite these gains, we still antic­i­pate that I‑522 will be defeat­ed, because it start­ed out too far behind on Elec­tion Night. The num­ber of out­stand­ing bal­lots is drop­ping, which means there will be few­er and few­er bal­lots tab­u­lat­ed and added to the tal­ly in the days ahead. There are 147,688 bal­lots wait­ing to be processed as of tonight, accord­ing to the Sec­re­tary of State. Most of those are in King, Sno­homish, and Pierce coun­ties (the three most pop­u­lous).

I‑522 present­ly trails by 68,135 votes. To make up that gap, Yes on I‑522 would need to cap­ture more than 73% of the remain­ing 147,688 bal­lots. We think that is unlike­ly to occur. The mar­gin will con­tin­ue to tight­en, but when the elec­tion is cer­ti­fied, I‑522 will be defeat­ed, unfor­tu­nate­ly. It prob­a­bly would have passed hand­i­ly had it been on the bal­lot last year.

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