Visualization of NPI's April 2024 U.S. President poll finding
A visualization of the Northwest Progressive Institute's April 2024 poll findings for President of the United States in the states of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho (NPI graphic)

Wash­ing­ton and Ore­gon will remain in the Demo­c­ra­t­ic col­umn in this year’s piv­otal­ly impor­tant pres­i­den­tial elec­tion, while Ida­ho will stay solid­ly Repub­li­can, a new tri-state sur­vey that was recent­ly con­duct­ed for the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute indicates. 

From April 13th to 16th, Civiqs inter­viewed 1,012 vot­ers across the Pacif­ic North­west for NPI. Our poll finds that Pres­i­dent Joe Biden holds a dou­ble dig­it lead over his pre­de­ces­sor Don­ald Trump in both Wash­ing­ton and Ore­gon, while Trump is ahead by an even larg­er mar­gin in Ida­ho. In the Pacif­ic North­west as a whole, a major­i­ty of vot­ers sup­port Biden, and he is on track to win the pop­u­lar vote across the three states that are home to the Cas­cade Range and the Colum­bia Riv­er watershed. 

The key numbers:

  • PNW toplines: 51% of respon­dents sup­port Biden, 40% sup­port Trump
  • Wash­ing­ton: 54% sup­port Biden, 39% sup­port Trump
  • Ore­gon: 54% sup­port Biden, 34% sup­port Trump
  • Ida­ho: 63% sup­port Trump, 28% sup­port Biden

Trump has a more than two-to-one lead in Ida­ho, while Biden’s lead in Ore­gon is a stout twen­ty points. In Wash­ing­ton, Biden’s lead in this sur­vey is fif­teen points. His stand­ing here dove­tails neat­ly with the num­bers from our last statewide poll of Wash­ing­ton in Feb­ru­ary, con­duct­ed by anoth­er one of our poll­sters, Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling. 

None of these find­ings are at all sur­pris­ing, espe­cial­ly con­sid­er­ing that Washington/Oregon and Ida­ho have been on oppo­site sides of pres­i­den­tial pol­i­tics for decades. 

Still, it is use­ful to have this data. 

This is NPI’s very first tri-state poll, a project we’re thrilled to have brought to fruition, and it’s great to have num­bers from each of the states with­in our area of focus. 

Wash­ing­ton and Ore­gon last vot­ed for a Repub­li­can for Pres­i­dent in 1984 when Ronald Rea­gan was seek­ing a sec­ond term; Ida­ho last vot­ed for a Demo­c­rat for Pres­i­dent in 1964 when Lyn­don Baines John­son was seek­ing to be retained by vot­ers for a full term. Wash­ing­ton and Ore­gon have vot­ed togeth­er in every pres­i­den­tial elec­tion since 1968, when Wash­ing­ton vot­ers gave the state’s nine Elec­toral Col­lege votes to Hubert Humphrey and Ore­gon vot­ers gave their six Elec­toral Col­lege votes to Richard Nixon. (Wash­ing­ton showed bet­ter judg­ment than its neigh­bors in that impor­tant election!) 

Wash­ing­ton and Ore­gon’s Demo­c­ra­t­ic strength comes pri­mar­i­ly from the Inter­state 5 cor­ri­dor. Begin­ning with the Cana­di­an bor­der to the north and con­clud­ing at the south­ern edge of the Willamette Val­ley, most of the pop­u­la­tion cen­ters I‑5 pass­es through are very Demo­c­ra­t­ic, includ­ing the cities of Belling­ham, Everett, Seat­tle, Taco­ma, Olympia, Van­cou­ver, Port­land, Salem, and Eugene (and their suburbs). 

Ida­ho has blue urban areas too — its cap­i­tal and largest city of Boise is a blue oasis in a very red state — but Boise’s sub­urbs aren’t as pro­gres­sive, and the Boise area does­n’t have the elec­toral mus­cle that the I‑5 cor­ri­dor has in Wash­ing­ton and Oregon. 

In 2020, the Biden/Harris tick­et received 57.97% of the vote in Wash­ing­ton, 56.45% in Ore­gon, and 33.09% in Ida­ho. The Trump/Pence tick­et received 38.77% of the vote in Wash­ing­ton, 40.37% in Ore­gon, and 63.89% in Ida­ho. Our sur­vey sug­gests that the 2024 results may not be very dif­fer­ent. No part of our region has been a pres­i­den­tial bat­tle­ground for a very long time, and that will almost sure­ly remain the case in 2024.

Here is the exact text of the ques­tion we asked and the answers we received: 

QUESTION: If the Novem­ber gen­er­al elec­tion were being held today, who would you vote for to be Pres­i­dent of the Unit­ed States?

ANSWERS FROM THE ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SAMPLE:

  • Joe Biden: 51%
  • Don­ald Trump: 40% 
  • Not sure: 9%

ANSWERS FROM WASHINGTON STATE RESPONDENTS:

  • Joe Biden: 54%
  • Don­ald Trump: 39%
  • Not sure: 7%

ANSWERS FROM OREGON RESPONDENTS:

  • Joe Biden: 54%
  • Don­ald Trump: 34%
  • Not sure: 11%

ANSWERS FROM IDAHO RESPONDENTS:

  • Joe Biden: 28%
  • Don­ald Trump: 63%
  • Not sure: 9%

Our poll of 1,012 like­ly vot­ers was in the field from April 13th-16th, 2024. 

The sur­vey was con­duct­ed entire­ly online, among select­ed mem­bers of the Civiqs research pan­el, and it has a mar­gin of error of ± 3.4% at the 95% con­fi­dence lev­el. 598 of the respon­dents inter­viewed were from Wash­ing­ton, 246 were from Ore­gon, and 168 were from Ida­ho. (Reflect­ing its larg­er pop­u­la­tion as mea­sured in the last nation­al cen­sus, Wash­ing­ton has as many elec­toral votes as Ore­gon and Ida­ho put togeth­er — twelve! — and that’s why the sam­ple has more Wash­ing­ton vot­ers in it.)

Tomor­row, we’ll share the find­ings from our gener­ic con­gres­sion­al bal­lot question. 

About the author

Andrew Villeneuve is the founder and executive director of the Northwest Progressive Institute, as well as the founder of NPI's sibling, the Northwest Progressive Foundation. He has worked to advance progressive causes for over two decades as a strategist, speaker, author, and organizer. Andrew is also a cybersecurity expert, a veteran facilitator, a delegate to the Washington State Democratic Central Committee, and a member of the Climate Reality Leadership Corps.

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