A majority of voters in the Pacific Northwest want Democratic representation in the next Congress and say they’d vote for the Democratic candidate from their congressional election if the 2024 presidential election were being held today, the Northwest Progressive Institute’s latest public opinion research survey has found.
52% of 1,012 Washington, Oregon, and Idaho voters surveyed by Civiqs earlier this month for NPI said they’d vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the election were being held now, while 40% said they’d vote for the Republican candidate. 8% were not sure.
Respondents in Oregon were the most enthusiastic about voting Democratic — 57% of them said they’d vote for the Democratic candidate, while just 34% said they’d pick the Republican. Respondents in Idaho were the least enthusiastic, with 27% saying they’d vote for the Democratic candidate and 64% saying they’d vote for the Republican.
Respondents in historically blue Washington State also not surprisingly expressed a preference for Democrats. 54% of them said they’d vote for the Democratic candidate, while 38% said they’d vote for the Republican candidate.
Critically, Democrats have an advantage with suburban voters. Our survey found that 57% of suburban voters in the three states would vote for the Democratic candidate from their district. 38% would vote for the Republican candidate. A mere 5% were not sure. The party’s advantage in the suburbs is, interestingly, greater than Republicans’ advantage in rural communities. 40% of rural voters say they’d vote for the Democratic candidate and 53% say they’d vote for the Republican candidate. 8% are not sure.
This is an intriguing finding, because many pundits consider predominantly rural districts to be unwinnable for Democrats. But the party has proved it can break through with the right candidates. Consider Mary Peltola’s two consecutive victories in Alaska, or Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s upset win in 2022 (which our polling suggested was a real possibility, even though many national pundits were stunned).
The Pacific Northwest has eighteen congressional districts: ten in Washington, six in Oregon, and two in Idaho. Eight of the ten Washington districts are currently held by Democrats following Gluesenkamp Perez’s election to the House. In Oregon, four of the six seats are currently held by Democrats after Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s victory. Republicans have held both of Idaho’s seats since the 2010 midterms.
Democrats would like to pick up Chavez-DeRemer’s seat in Oregon’s 5th and keep Washington’s 3rd, 6th, and 8th Democratic. Republicans consider Washington’s 3rd their top pickup opportunity in the region. They’d like to expand the map and go after Oregon’s 4th and 6th Districts as well, but that may not be feasible this cycle.
In Washington’s 5th, which used to be represented by Speaker Tom Foley, Cathy McMorris Rodgers is retiring, creating an open seat. A large field of Republicans is running, which creates an opening for Democrats. Whether they can capitalize remains to be seen. The party hasn’t yet united behind one candidate like it did with Gluesenkamp Perez in 2022, and the district is much more Republican than Washington’s 3rd. But anyone who thinks a Democratic pickup of WA-05 is impossible should remember the mantra it’s often considered impossible until it’s done.
Here is the exact text of the question we asked and the answers we received:
QUESTION: If the election for the United States House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?
ANSWERS FROM THE ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SAMPLE:
- Democratic candidate: 52%
- Republican candidate: 40%
- Not sure: 8%
ANSWERS FROM WASHINGTON STATE RESPONDENTS:
- Democratic candidate: 54%
- Republican candidate: 39%
- Not sure: 7%
ANSWERS FROM OREGON RESPONDENTS:
- Democratic candidate: 57%
- Republican candidate: 34%
- Not sure: 9%
ANSWERS FROM IDAHO RESPONDENTS:
- Democratic candidate: 27%
- Republican candidate: 64%
- Not sure: 9%
Our poll of 1,012 likely voters was in the field from April 13th-16th, 2024.
The survey was conducted entirely online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel, and it has a margin of error of ± 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. 598 of the respondents interviewed were from Washington, 246 were from Oregon, and 168 were from Idaho. (Reflecting its larger population as measured in the last national census, Washington has as many electoral votes as Oregon and Idaho put together — twelve! — and that’s why the sample has more Washington voters in it.)
The next few weeks will bring important developments in the PNW’s congressional races. Filing Week in Washington State will be from May 6th — 10th, and after that, the ten congressional fields in Washington State will be set.
A couple weeks later, voters in Oregon and Idaho will pick Democratic and Republican nominees for the U.S. House, in their May 21st primaries. Washington doesn’t have a real primary, so Evergreen State voters don’t get the opportunity to pick nominees.
Instead, in the Top Two election on August 6th, voters in Washington will choose two candidates to appear on the November general election ballot in every congressional district. Those two candidates could be from different parties, but they could also be from the same party… as was the case in Washington’s 10th in 2020, when Democrats Marilyn Strickland and Beth Doglio competed in the general election.
We’ll continue to bring you coverage of this year’s congressional races throughout the remainder of the cycle here on The Cascadia Advocate.
