Visualization of NPI's February 2024 presidential poll finding
Visualization of NPI's February 2024 presidential poll finding (Northwest Progressive Institute)

Pres­i­dent Joe Biden has slight­ly widened his lead over pre­sump­tive Repub­li­can nom­i­nee Don­ald Trump in the Ever­green State with eight months to go until bal­lots get mailed out to in-state vot­ers, the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute’s lat­est sur­vey of the like­ly 2024 Wash­ing­ton elec­torate has found.

54% of 789 like­ly vot­ers sur­veyed Feb­ru­ary 13th-14th, 2024 by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling for the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute said they would vote for Biden if the elec­tion were being held today, while 38% said they would vote for Trump. Anoth­er 8% were not sure. It’s Biden’s best per­cent­age so far this cycle in our Wash­ing­ton State polling — bet­ter than the 53% he got last June, and bet­ter than the 52% Biden got in Novem­ber in head-to-head matchups with Trump.

The Ever­green State has been a Demo­c­ra­t­ic bas­tion for a rather long time. It last vot­ed for a Repub­li­can for Pres­i­dent in the 1980s, when Ronald Rea­gan was the Grand Old Par­ty’s nom­i­nee. Since then, it has vot­ed for Democ­rats, often by fair­ly lop­sided mar­gins. Michael Dukakis, Bill Clin­ton, Al Gore, John Ker­ry, Barack Oba­ma, and Hillary Clin­ton all won Wash­ing­ton State, as did the Biden-Har­ris tick­et four years ago. And no cred­i­ble polit­i­cal observ­er expects that to change.

Wash­ing­ton may not be a bat­tle­ground state, but that has nev­er stopped us from ask­ing peo­ple who they’re sup­port­ing for Pres­i­dent. It’s use­ful, fas­ci­nat­ing data to have, and we’re glad to be able to share it pub­licly with you, our readers.

Here’s the exact text of the ques­tions we asked and the responses:

QUESTION: If the elec­tion for Pres­i­dent of the Unit­ed States were being held today, would you vote for Demo­c­rat Joe Biden or Repub­li­can Don­ald Trump?


  • Joe Biden: 54%
  • Don­ald Trump: 38%
  • Not sure: 8%

Our sur­vey of 789 like­ly 2024 Wash­ing­ton State vot­ers was in the field from Tues­day, Feb­ru­ary 13th through Wednes­day, Feb­ru­ary 14th, 2023.

The poll uti­lizes a blend­ed method­ol­o­gy, with auto­mat­ed phone calls to land­lines (42%) and online answers from respon­dents recruit­ed by text (58%).

It was con­duct­ed by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling (PPP) for the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute, and has a mar­gin of error of +/- 3.5% at the 95% con­fi­dence interval.

NPI and PPP have worked togeth­er for a decade and have a track record of excel­lence, as detailed in this 2022 elec­toral polling recap and this 2020 one.

Insights from our crosstabs

Because we ask our respon­dents who they sup­port­ed in the last pres­i­den­tial elec­tion, we always have 2020 pres­i­den­tial vote crosstabs avail­able to look at. As you might expect, pret­ty much every­one who vot­ed for Biden last time is pre­pared to do so again, and the same is true for Trump voters.

How­ev­er, we noticed that in this sur­vey, there are more Biden vot­ers will­ing to stick with Biden than Trump vot­ers will­ing to stick with Trump, and that Trump has an advan­tage among those who vot­ed for some­one else or did not vote.

Take a look:

QUESTION: If the elec­tion for Pres­i­dent of the Unit­ed States were being held today, would you vote for Demo­c­rat Joe Biden or Repub­li­can Don­ald Trump?


  • 2020 Biden voters 
    • Joe Biden: 92%
    • Don­ald Trump: 2%
    • Not sure: 6%
  • 2020 Trump voters 
    • Joe Biden: 4%
    • Don­ald Trump: 90%
    • Not sure: 6%
  • Some­one else / did not vote 
    • Joe Biden: 16%
    • Don­ald Trump: 46%
    • Not sure: 38%

With respect to par­ty, Democ­rats are more unit­ed behind Biden than Repub­li­cans are for Trump. 93% of Demo­c­ra­t­ic vot­ers are back­ing Biden, where­as only 89% of Repub­li­can vot­ers are. Self-iden­ti­fied inde­pen­dents are about even­ly split: 41% for Biden, 42% for Trump, and 17% are not sure.

And, in more good news for Biden, Wash­ing­ton’s youngest vot­ers still sup­port his reelec­tion by about a 2:1 mar­gin, despite his han­dling of the con­flict between Israel and Hamas in the Mid­dle East. 66% of respon­dents ages eigh­teen to twen­ty-nine are for Biden and 34% are for Trump, with none unde­cid­ed — the only age group that did­n’t have a “not sure” response in this poll.

Biden does about as well with seniors: 62% of those above the age of six­ty-five are in Biden’s camp and only 32% pre­fer Trump. Trump’s strongest age group are Gen Xers and younger boomers, but even a plu­ral­i­ty of them pre­fer Biden.

In a sig­nif­i­cant diver­gence from our last sur­vey, we also found Pres­i­dent Biden with a lead among vot­ers with only a high school education.

In our Novem­ber poll, Trump had a ten point advan­tage, with 49% sup­port among that group. But in this poll, he’s at 45% and Biden has a plu­ral­i­ty lead of 48%, with 7% unde­cid­ed. Biden also has a nar­row lead over Trump among vot­ers who’ve tak­en some col­lege cours­es but did not fin­ish (47% to 45%) and those with two-year degrees (48% to 42%). Not sur­pris­ing­ly, Biden’s sup­port is in the six­ties with vot­ers who have four-year degrees (62% to Trump’s 30%) and among vot­ers with post­grad­u­ate degrees (69% to Trump’s 22%).

As before, Biden leads in all geo­graph­ic regions of Wash­ing­ton State except for East­ern and Cen­tral Wash­ing­ton, where Trump has major­i­ty support.

Biden also has a lead with vot­ers in every income brack­et in our survey.

Trump’s strength with Republican voters nationally could be helping President Biden and Democrats locally

Don­ald Trump has won nom­i­nat­ing con­tests in each of the states that has held a pres­i­den­tial pri­ma­ry or cau­cus thus far, and now appears head­ed for a third con­sec­u­tive Repub­li­can pres­i­den­tial nom­i­na­tion this sum­mer. But his strength with Repub­li­can vot­ers seems to be work­ing to Pres­i­dent Biden’s advan­tage, at least here in Wash­ing­ton State, as his over­all sup­port is going up and he’s doing much bet­ter with a key con­stituen­cy — vot­ers with only a high school education.

Many in state Repub­li­can cir­cles des­per­ate­ly want to define the upcom­ing pres­i­den­tial and guber­na­to­r­i­al elec­tions on their terms, and they’re hop­ing a slate of six ini­tia­tives fund­ed by megadonor Bri­an Hey­wood will help them do it.

But with Trump promis­ing to be a dic­ta­tor on day one and encour­ag­ing Rus­sia to do what­ev­er it wants to Amer­i­ca’s NATO allies, the 2024 elec­tion is pret­ty much guar­an­teed to be anoth­er bat­tle for the soul of the nation. Repub­li­cans appear stuck with Trump, and NPI has over half a decade of state and local polling that makes it abun­dant­ly clear Trump and his pol­i­tics are utter­ly abhor­rent to a major­i­ty of vot­ers in Wash­ing­ton State. Trump’s pres­ence atop the tick­et is like­ly to be a seri­ous prob­lem for Repub­li­cans run­ning down­bal­lot this year.

When spring rolls around, we’ll check in again and see where the race stands. Between now and then, we’ll get some data from Wash­ing­ton’s pres­i­den­tial pri­ma­ry — a unique event in state pol­i­tics that only hap­pens every four years — and that will give us more num­bers to exam­ine as the con­ven­tions approach.

About the author

Andrew Villeneuve is the founder and executive director of the Northwest Progressive Institute, as well as the founder of NPI's sibling, the Northwest Progressive Foundation. He has worked to advance progressive causes for over two decades as a strategist, speaker, author, and organizer. Andrew is also a cybersecurity expert, a veteran facilitator, a delegate to the Washington State Democratic Central Committee, and a member of the Climate Reality Leadership Corps.

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