NPI's Cascadia Advocate

Offering commentary and analysis from Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, The Cascadia Advocate provides the Northwest Progressive Institute's uplifting perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Friday, November 17th, 2023

Joe Biden has a fourteen point, eleven month out lead over Donald Trump in Washington

Pres­i­dent Joe Biden con­tin­ues to lead Don­ald Trump in a hypo­thet­i­cal (but wide­ly expect­ed) rematch among like­ly Wash­ing­ton State vot­ers with about eleven months to go until bal­lots are mailed out in the 2024 pres­i­den­tial elec­tion, the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute’s lat­est statewide sur­vey has found.

52% of 700 like­ly 2024 Wash­ing­ton State vot­ers sur­veyed by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling this week for NPI said they’d back Biden if the elec­tion were being held today, while 38% said they’d back Trump. 11% said they were not sure.

Trump has been dom­i­nant in the body of pub­lic opin­ion research that’s asked Repub­li­can pres­i­den­tial pri­ma­ry vot­ers who they want to be their nom­i­nee in 2024. Oth­er can­di­dates are con­tend­ing for the nom­i­na­tion, but they’re find­ing it hard to get trac­tion. In recent weeks, Mike Pence and Tim Scott have both end­ed their cam­paigns, hav­ing found that Repub­li­can vot­ers aren’t inter­est­ed in their can­di­da­cies. Chris Christie, Ron DeSan­tis, Nik­ki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy are still run­ning, but none looks like they have the strength to beat Trump.

With Democ­rats on track to renom­i­nate Biden and Har­ris, that sets up a sequel to the 2020 pres­i­den­tial elec­tion, which Democ­rats won with 306 elec­toral votes. (Don­ald Trump does not accept the result and is the first pres­i­dent in Amer­i­can his­to­ry to refuse to will­ing­ly par­tic­i­pate in the peace­ful trans­fer of power.)

Wash­ing­ton is a state that usu­al­ly elects Democ­rats and has sup­port­ed the Demo­c­ra­t­ic nom­i­nee for pres­i­dent for decades, so it’s no sur­prise that Biden is ahead in this poll find­ing. Nev­er­the­less, it’s good to have fresh data indi­cat­ing what the elec­toral land­scape looks like. In June, we found Biden at 53% and Trump at 36%, so their respec­tive elec­toral posi­tions in this state haven’t changed very much. A lot has hap­pened in the coun­try and the world in the last five months, but Wash­ing­ton vot­ers remain com­mit­ted to Pres­i­dent Joe Biden.

Here’s the exact text of the ques­tions we asked and the responses:

QUESTION: If the 2024 elec­tion for Pres­i­dent were being held today, would you vote for Demo­c­rat Joe Biden or Repub­li­can Don­ald Trump?

ANSWERS:

  • Joe Biden: 52%
  • Don­ald Trump: 38%
  • Not sure: 11%

Our sur­vey of 700 like­ly 2024 Wash­ing­ton State vot­ers was in the field from Tues­day, Novem­ber 14th through Wednes­day, Novem­ber 15th, 2023.

The poll uti­lizes a blend­ed method­ol­o­gy, with auto­mat­ed phone calls to land­lines (42%) and online answers from respon­dents recruit­ed by text (58%).

It was con­duct­ed by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling (PPP) for the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute, and has a mar­gin of error of +/- 3.7% at the 95% con­fi­dence interval.

NPI and PPP have worked togeth­er for a decade and have a track record of excel­lence, as detailed in this 2022 elec­toral polling recap and this 2020 one.

Insights from our crosstabs

Our crosstabs con­firm that there are sig­nif­i­cant divides with­in the Wash­ing­ton elec­torate with respect to who they sup­port for President.

Biden is sup­port­ed by:

  • Demo­c­ra­t­ic vot­ers (87%; Trump has 5%)
  • Vot­ers with post­grad­u­ate degrees (68%; Trump has 21%)
  • The youngest vot­ers (65% of those ages 18–29; Trump has 16%)
  • Vot­ers of col­or (63%; Trump has 23%)
  • Female vot­ers (60%; Trump has 31%)
  • Vot­ers with four-year col­lege degrees (60%; Trump has 31%)
  • Old­er mil­len­ni­als / Gen X (59% of those ages 30 to 45; Trump has 29%)
  • Vot­ers with some col­lege, but did not fin­ish (48%; Trump has 39%)
  • Vot­ers ages 46 to 65 (47%; Trump has 42%)

Biden leads Trump in all regions of Wash­ing­ton State except for Repub­li­can-friend­ly East­ern or Cen­tral Wash­ing­ton, where Trump has major­i­ty support.

Biden also has sup­port across income brack­ets. His sup­port among low income vot­ers is espe­cial­ly strong. Two-thirds of vot­ers mak­ing less than $30,000 sup­port Biden, as do over three-fifths of those mak­ing over $100,000 a year.

Trump is sup­port­ed by:

  • Repub­li­can vot­ers (83%; Biden has 8%)
  • Vot­ers with only a high school edu­ca­tion (49%; Biden has 39%)
  • Vot­ers with two year col­lege degrees (49%; Biden has 46%)
  • Vot­ers old­er than 65 (48%; Biden has 46%)
  • Male vot­ers (45%; Biden has 43%)

Biden-Har­ris received 57.97% of the vote in the Ever­green State in the 2020 pres­i­den­tial elec­tion, earn­ing all twelve of Wash­ing­ton’s elec­toral votes.

Trump’s criminal charges and legal problems haven’t hurt his standing with the Republican base, at least not yet

Back in June, I wrote:

The crosstabs from our hypo­thet­i­cal matchups sug­gest the Repub­li­can base still likes Trump, but will they like him more than DeSan­tis next spring, espe­cial­ly as Trump goes on tri­al for his crimes? We shall see, pre­sum­ing the Repub­li­can nom­i­na­tion is still being con­test­ed at the time we hold our pres­i­den­tial primary.

Since our June sur­vey, more indict­ments have been brought against Trump and he has begun stand­ing tri­al in New York on civ­il fraud charges. That has­n’t dimin­ished his posi­tion with the Repub­li­can base, nor has it neg­a­tive­ly impact­ed his com­pet­i­tive­ness in recent nation­al or bat­tle­ground state polls.

How­ev­er, if Trump is con­vict­ed, polling does sug­gest that would hurt him with gen­er­al elec­tion vot­ers in swing states. We are unlike­ly to see much fall­out here in Wash­ing­ton State because Trump sim­ply isn’t com­pet­i­tive with Pres­i­dent Biden.

And unfor­tu­nate­ly for DeSan­tis and oth­er Trump rivals, it does­n’t look like any num­ber of con­vic­tions would cause the Repub­li­can base to break with Trump.

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