President Joe Biden continues to lead Donald Trump in a hypothetical (but widely expected) rematch among likely Washington State voters with about eleven months to go until ballots are mailed out in the 2024 presidential election, the Northwest Progressive Institute’s latest statewide survey has found.
52% of 700 likely 2024 Washington State voters surveyed by Public Policy Polling this week for NPI said they’d back Biden if the election were being held today, while 38% said they’d back Trump. 11% said they were not sure.
Trump has been dominant in the body of public opinion research that’s asked Republican presidential primary voters who they want to be their nominee in 2024. Other candidates are contending for the nomination, but they’re finding it hard to get traction. In recent weeks, Mike Pence and Tim Scott have both ended their campaigns, having found that Republican voters aren’t interested in their candidacies. Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy are still running, but none looks like they have the strength to beat Trump.
With Democrats on track to renominate Biden and Harris, that sets up a sequel to the 2020 presidential election, which Democrats won with 306 electoral votes. (Donald Trump does not accept the result and is the first president in American history to refuse to willingly participate in the peaceful transfer of power.)
Washington is a state that usually elects Democrats and has supported the Democratic nominee for president for decades, so it’s no surprise that Biden is ahead in this poll finding. Nevertheless, it’s good to have fresh data indicating what the electoral landscape looks like. In June, we found Biden at 53% and Trump at 36%, so their respective electoral positions in this state haven’t changed very much. A lot has happened in the country and the world in the last five months, but Washington voters remain committed to President Joe Biden.
Here’s the exact text of the questions we asked and the responses:
QUESTION: If the 2024 election for President were being held today, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden or Republican Donald Trump?
- Joe Biden: 52%
- Donald Trump: 38%
- Not sure: 11%
Our survey of 700 likely 2024 Washington State voters was in the field from Tuesday, November 14th through Wednesday, November 15th, 2023.
The poll utilizes a blended methodology, with automated phone calls to landlines (42%) and online answers from respondents recruited by text (58%).
It was conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence interval.
Insights from our crosstabs
Our crosstabs confirm that there are significant divides within the Washington electorate with respect to who they support for President.
Biden is supported by:
- Democratic voters (87%; Trump has 5%)
- Voters with postgraduate degrees (68%; Trump has 21%)
- The youngest voters (65% of those ages 18–29; Trump has 16%)
- Voters of color (63%; Trump has 23%)
- Female voters (60%; Trump has 31%)
- Voters with four-year college degrees (60%; Trump has 31%)
- Older millennials / Gen X (59% of those ages 30 to 45; Trump has 29%)
- Voters with some college, but did not finish (48%; Trump has 39%)
- Voters ages 46 to 65 (47%; Trump has 42%)
Biden leads Trump in all regions of Washington State except for Republican-friendly Eastern or Central Washington, where Trump has majority support.
Biden also has support across income brackets. His support among low income voters is especially strong. Two-thirds of voters making less than $30,000 support Biden, as do over three-fifths of those making over $100,000 a year.
Trump is supported by:
- Republican voters (83%; Biden has 8%)
- Voters with only a high school education (49%; Biden has 39%)
- Voters with two year college degrees (49%; Biden has 46%)
- Voters older than 65 (48%; Biden has 46%)
- Male voters (45%; Biden has 43%)
Biden-Harris received 57.97% of the vote in the Evergreen State in the 2020 presidential election, earning all twelve of Washington’s electoral votes.
Trump’s criminal charges and legal problems haven’t hurt his standing with the Republican base, at least not yet
The crosstabs from our hypothetical matchups suggest the Republican base still likes Trump, but will they like him more than DeSantis next spring, especially as Trump goes on trial for his crimes? We shall see, presuming the Republican nomination is still being contested at the time we hold our presidential primary.
Since our June survey, more indictments have been brought against Trump and he has begun standing trial in New York on civil fraud charges. That hasn’t diminished his position with the Republican base, nor has it negatively impacted his competitiveness in recent national or battleground state polls.
However, if Trump is convicted, polling does suggest that would hurt him with general election voters in swing states. We are unlikely to see much fallout here in Washington State because Trump simply isn’t competitive with President Biden.
And unfortunately for DeSantis and other Trump rivals, it doesn’t look like any number of convictions would cause the Republican base to break with Trump.