NPI's Cascadia Advocate

Offering commentary and analysis from Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Friday, November 8th, 2013

Analysis: Sawant on the Verge, Bleeding Stops (or Pauses) for SeaTac Minimum Wage, and Outside Chance Remains for Seattle Public Financing

Social­ist Alter­na­tive par­ty can­di­date, Kshama Sawant, appears on the verge of tak­ing the lead and not look­ing back in her race vs. incum­bent Demo­c­ra­t­ic Seat­tle City Coun­cilper­son Richard Conlin.

Dur­ing the vote count of Fri­day evening, Sawant won 58.4% of the vote, accord­ing to The Stranger’s David “Goldy” Gold­stein, result­ing in her now sit­ting only 1,237 votes shy of Con­lin’s tal­ly thus far. Accord­ing to King Coun­ty Elec­tions, there are still 33,016 votes left to count in Seat­tle. Not count­ing the hand­ful of votes left to trick­le in, Sawant need only win 51.87% of those 33,016 votes to take the lead. Accord­ing to the Sawant cam­paign, if the trend con­tin­ues, they will win by more than 1.6% by the time all of the votes are counted.

Since Elec­tion Night Tues­day, the trend in votes count­ed has been in favor all of the left-lean­ing or anti-estab­lish­ment can­di­dates in Seat­tle. Seat­tle May­or Mike McGinn won’t win his re-elec­tion bid, but has cut into State Sen­a­tor Ed Mur­ray’s share of the vote to the point that they now sit at 53%-46.5% (Mur­ray-McGinn) after stand­ing at 56%-43% Elec­tion Night. Lib­er­al City Coun­cilper­son Mike O’Brien was always lead­ing by a wide mar­gin, but has only increased his share of the votes to 66.52% vs. busi­ness-backed can­di­date, Albert Shen.

Sim­i­lar­ly, Seat­tle’s Prop. 1, which would pro­vide pub­lic financ­ing for Seat­tle munic­i­pal can­di­dates that qual­i­fied for it, appeared to be set to fail by a sol­id mar­gin on Elec­tion Night with the mea­sure fail­ing at a 46–54 mar­gin. While YES on Seat­tle’s Prop. 1 still remains a dark­horse, that mar­gin is now only 48.78%-51.22% (YES-NO). Again, cal­cu­lat­ing based on the 33,016 votes left to count in Seat­tle, YES on the mea­sure could take the lead if it earns 55.89% of those remain­ing votes.

Con­verse­ly, SeaT­ac’s Prop. 1, which would set a $15/hour min­i­mum wage for air­port and hotel work­ers, appeared set to sail to vic­to­ry with a 54%-46% mar­gin on Elec­tion Night. Unlike in the case of last-minute Seat­tle vot­ers which trend­ed strong­ly toward left-lean­ing can­di­dates, the YES! for SeaT­ac cam­paign worked hard for weeks to encour­age their sup­port­ers to return their bal­lots ear­ly. This has result­ed in a dra­mat­ic drop in their vote mar­gin as more and more votes have been count­ed. Wor­ry­ing­ly, the YES side led by only 55 votes as of the ~ 4:30 PM vote count today. As each day after Elec­tion night saw the YES cam­paign’s share of the vote reduce by a whole per­cent (1%) or more, I can say that I was dread­ing refresh­ing the vote total on my brows­er this evening. Thank­ful­ly, the blood­let­ting has appeared to stopped, or at least paused for the time-being, with vote mar­gin cut by only anoth­er dozen votes result­ing in a 43 vote lead as of the 8:10 PM vote count this evening.

One can assume that both sides of the SeaT­ac Prop. 1 cam­paign will be chas­ing bal­lots to either solid­i­fy or over­take the YES cam­paign’s nar­row­est of leads, but we can only hope that after putting the brakes on their down­ward slide, sup­port­ers of a liv­able wage can actu­al­ly start grow­ing their lead again.

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  1. […] local­ly in Occu­py Seat­tle. “Every­body’s sens­ing the rum­blings of the future. We’re …Analy­sis: Sawant on the Verge, Bleed­ing Stops (or Paus­es) for SeaT­ac Min­i­mum …North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute Advocate […]