NPI's Cascadia Advocate

Offering commentary and analysis from Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Monday, October 24th, 2011

Poll Watch: Support for Eyman’s I-1125 sinks

Local pollster Stuart Elway, whose firm has been surveying public opinion in Washington State for many years, has another survey measuring support for I-1125 out today – the third in a series he has conducted for this election.

The survey found that support for I-1125 has sunk dramatically, from fifty-six percent in favor last month to forty-three percent in favor this month. Opposition, meanwhile, climbed from twenty-five percent to thirty-six percent. The number of undecided voters remains the same, at around twenty percent.

On ballot measures, undecided voters historically tend to break no when there are good reasons to vote against (as there are with I-1125).

The Seattle Times went and got Tim Eyman’s reaction, and described Eyman as trying “to put a positive spin on the poll”. No surprise there – that’s what Tim does, although in our view, spin is too charitable of a word.

While it’s true that more respondents of Elway’s poll were in favor than against, the gap is getting close to the margin of error.

If Tim Eyman puts any stock in polls, he should be worried. When a ballot measure is polling under fifty percent, that’s a sign that it’s not going to pass.

Of course, this is just one poll. And even if there were other polls backing it up, it would still just be opinion research, which isn’t always reliable.

The real poll – the only one that matters – is currently being conducted by county elections officials across Washington State.

Please join us in voting NO on Tim Eyman’s I-1125 between now and November 8th, if you haven’t already. Keep our roads safe, and keep Washington rolling.

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  1. It will be interesting to see if any other polls come out on I-1125 and if the results back up Elway’s research.

    # by Mackerel :: October 25th, 2011 at 2:50 PM
    • The Washington Poll, conducted by the UW, is due out on Halloween (next Monday) and it should include I-1125.

      # by Andrew :: October 27th, 2011 at 12:28 AM