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Offering commentary and analysis from Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, The Cascadia Advocate provides the Northwest Progressive Institute's uplifting perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Monday, June 6th, 2022

WA Democrats double their congressional generic ballot lead from six to twelve points

An increas­ing num­ber of vot­ers in Wash­ing­ton State are plan­ning to vote for Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­dates for the Unit­ed States House in the com­ing midterms, while a shrink­ing per­cent­age are plan­ning to vote for Repub­li­can can­di­dates, NPI’s most recent sur­vey of the Wash­ing­ton State elec­torate has found.

51% of 1,039 like­ly 2022 vot­ers inter­viewed last week for NPI by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling said they would vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date if the elec­tion were being held now, while 39% said they would vote for the Repub­li­can candidate.

10% were not sure.

Congressional generic ballot poll finding

Visu­al­iza­tion of NPI’s June 2022 con­gres­sion­al gener­ic bal­lot poll finding

In Feb­ru­ary, when our last statewide poll field­ed, the Demo­c­ra­t­ic advan­tage was just six per­cent­age points. Now it’s twelve. In the span of just one sea­son, the mar­gin for Democ­rats in our research has dou­bled… and dur­ing a time when Repub­li­cans have been crow­ing that increas­es in the cost of liv­ing are going to pow­er a big red tsuna­mi that they expect to ride to victory.

The increased enthu­si­asm for Democ­rats is good news for Unit­ed States Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Kim Schri­er, who rep­re­sents the only con­gres­sion­al dis­trict in the state — the 8th — that is expect­ed to be com­pet­i­tive this year. Most of the state’s ten con­gres­sion­al dis­tricts have either a strong Demo­c­ra­t­ic or Repub­li­can lean and can there­fore be expect­ed to elect a Demo­c­rat or a Repub­li­can no mat­ter what polit­i­cal winds hap­pen to be blow­ing, or what the nation­al land­scape looks like.

The new 1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 9th, and 10th Dis­tricts were all drawn to be Demo­c­ra­t­ic to vary­ing degrees, with the 7th and 9th the most Demo­c­ra­t­ic of all.

The 3rd, 4th, and 5th Dis­tricts, mean­while, were all drawn to be Republican.

The 8th is unlike the oth­er nine. It’s a true tossup dis­trict span­ning the Cas­cades that can be won by either par­ty and could go either way this November.

The new 8th includes sub­ur­ban, exur­ban, and rur­al precincts in five dif­fer­ent coun­ties: King, Sno­homish, Pierce, Kit­ti­tas, and Chelan. From its cre­ation in the 1980s until 2018, it was a Repub­li­can dis­trict that always elect­ed Republicans.

But in the last midterms, Democ­rats flipped it with Dr. Kim Schri­er, a pedi­a­tri­cian from the East­side of King Coun­ty who cam­paigned ener­get­i­cal­ly on healthcare.

Schri­er won reelec­tion in 2020 and is now in her sec­ond term. She’s being chal­lenged in her bid for a third term by sev­er­al Repub­li­cans, includ­ing King Coun­ty Coun­cilmem­ber Rea­gan Dunn, the son of one of the Repub­li­cans who used to hold the seat, for­mer Unit­ed States Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Jen­nifer Dunn.

Schri­er needs sub­ur­ban and exur­ban vot­ers to be enthu­si­as­tic about vot­ing Demo­c­ra­t­ic to have the best chance of defeat­ing Dunn or one of his fel­low Repub­li­cans this autumn. This new data sug­gests that enthu­si­asm is building.

While this is a statewide find­ing — gener­ic bal­lot ques­tions like this are not dis­trict or con­test-spe­cif­ic, which is why they are so named — we can see from look­ing at the crosstabs that momen­tum for Democ­rats is grow­ing in the por­tions of the state that Kim Schri­er and her Repub­li­can oppo­si­tion will be com­pet­ing in.

For exam­ple, in King Coun­ty, Democ­rats have a forty-point coun­ty­wide advan­tage on the gener­ic con­gres­sion­al bal­lot, up from twen­ty-three points in Feb­ru­ary. That’s sig­nif­i­cant. East King Coun­ty pow­ered Schri­er’s 2018 and 2020 vic­to­ries, and might just do so again in 2022 despite Repub­li­cans’ expectations.

Here is the text of the ques­tion we asked and the statewide num­bers again:

QUESTION: If the gen­er­al elec­tion for the Unit­ed States House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives were being held today, would you vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic or Repub­li­can can­di­date from your district?


  • Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date: 51%
  • Repub­li­can can­di­date: 39%
  • Not sure: 10%

Our sur­vey of 1,039 like­ly 2022 Wash­ing­ton State vot­ers was in the field from Wednes­day, June 1st through Thurs­day, June 2nd, 2022.

It uti­lizes a blend­ed method­ol­o­gy, with auto­mat­ed phone calls to land­lines (50%) and text mes­sage answers from cell phone only respon­dents (50%).

The poll was con­duct­ed by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling for the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute and has a mar­gin of error of +/- 3.0% at the 95% con­fi­dence interval.

More infor­ma­tion about the survey’s method­ol­o­gy is avail­able here.

Kim Schri­er’s cam­paign is one of many spon­sors of NPI’s research, but had no involve­ment in the design or exe­cu­tion of this sur­vey or the release of this finding.

Sen­a­tor Pat­ty Mur­ray also appears to ben­e­fit­ing from increased enthu­si­asm for Democ­rats. As we report­ed last week, Mur­ray has widened her lead over like­ly Repub­li­can oppo­nent Tiffany Smi­ley from nine points in Feb­ru­ary to eleven points. It’s the first time this cycle that Mur­ray’s lead has widened between two of our statewide research polls as opposed to narrowing.

We’ll be releas­ing addi­tion­al find­ings from this sur­vey as the week progresses.

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