On Decem­ber 20th, 2019 the House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives vot­ed to impeach Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump, to the over­whelm­ing approval of Demo­c­ra­t­ic vot­ers and with a plu­ral­i­ty of sup­port among the Amer­i­can electorate.

Impeach­ment was the prop­er, moral, and nec­es­sary course of action to take. It should have been pur­sued ear­li­er and more vig­or­ous­ly by Demo­c­ra­t­ic leaders.

Although it is extreme­ly unlike­ly that Mitch McConnel­l’s Repub­­li­­can-con­trolled Sen­ate will vote to throw Trump out of office, the House had an oblig­a­tion and a duty to impeach Trump for vio­lat­ing the Unit­ed States Constitution.

The impeach­ment vote was made pos­si­ble by the results of the 2018 midterms, where Democ­rats secured con­trol of the House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives with the largest major­i­ty in the his­to­ry of midterm elec­tions.

How­ev­er, among those Democ­rats com­pet­ing to replace Trump in the White House, the con­se­quences of impeach­ment are more com­pli­cat­ed than the sym­bol­ic con­dem­na­tion of a leader they all see as incom­pe­tent, cor­rupt and dangerous.

Sen­a­tor Cory Book­er of New Jer­sey said it the most blunt­ly, in an inter­view with the Asso­ci­at­ed Press: an impeach­ment tri­al could be a “big, big blow” to his (already strug­gling) pres­i­den­tial campaign.

Sen­a­tor Cory Book­er at a cam­paign event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa (Pho­to: Lorie Shaull, repro­duced under Cre­ative Com­mons license)

Booker’s con­cern is not based on the (high­ly con­test­ed) idea that vot­ers will turn against the Democ­rats for impeach­ing Trump, but is based on the nuts and bolts of polit­i­cal campaigning.

The impeach­ment tri­al – which could begin as soon as next week – will take place in the U.S. Sen­ate in Wash­ing­ton D.C. As a sit­ting sen­a­tor, Book­er will be oblig­ed to attend, tak­ing him away from where he will real­ly want to be – Iowa.

The Iowa Demo­c­ra­t­ic cau­cus­es are to be held Feb­ru­ary 3rd, mean­ing that the impeach­ment tri­al in late Jan­u­ary will eat up the pre­cious final weeks that many of the can­di­dates seek­ing the pres­i­den­tial nom­i­na­tion have to campaign.

Iowa is famed for its sta­tus as a test­ing ground for retail pol­i­tics (“shak­ing hands and kiss­ing babies”), and long peri­ods of absence from the state in the run up to Feb­ru­ary 3rd could destroy any chance Book­er has of win­ning over unde­cid­ed vot­ers in the Hawk­eye State – a major blow to a can­di­date who con­tem­plat­ed drop­ping out of the race as ear­ly as last September.

Book­er is not the only can­di­date with this prob­lem. Five Demo­c­ra­t­ic sen­a­tors are cur­rent­ly run­ning for the nom­i­na­tion, and all want to do well in Iowa.

An impeach­ment tri­al would force all five to return to Wash­ing­ton D.C. from the cam­paign trail, and would give their rivals the chance to out-cam­­paign them in the cru­cial final stretch before vot­ers go to the caucuses.

This con­se­quence of the impeach­ment tri­al is par­tic­u­lar­ly wor­ry­ing for sup­port­ers of the most pro­gres­sive candidates.

Polls in Iowa cur­rent­ly show a three-way tie for first place between for­mer Vice Pres­i­dent Joe Biden, Sen­a­tor Bernie Sanders, and for­mer May­or Pete Buttigieg with Sen­a­tor Eliz­a­beth War­ren hot on their heels. A tri­al in Wash­ing­ton D.C. would force the two most pro­gres­sive can­di­dates in the race – Sanders and War­ren – away from the cam­paign and leave the field more open to Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg (both of whom have more neolib­er­al tendencies).

May­or Pete Buttigieg at a cam­paign event in Des Moines, Iowa. He is expect­ed to per­form well at the state’s cau­cus (Pho­to: Gage Skid­more, repro­duced under Cre­ative Com­mons license)

This could have dra­mat­ic con­se­quences down the road, espe­cial­ly for Buttigieg. As the pre­vi­ous may­or of a small city, Buttigieg has faced ques­tions over his youth and polit­i­cal inex­pe­ri­ence. A vic­to­ry in Iowa could cement his campaign’s legit­i­ma­cy in the eyes of many vot­ers and qui­et his critics.

Vice Pres­i­dent Biden cam­paigns in Des Moines. Suc­cess in Iowa would solid­i­fy his sta­tus as fron­trun­ner (Pho­to: Gage Skid­more, repro­duced under Cre­ative Com­mons license)

For Biden, an impeach­ment tri­al in the Sen­ate would remove the only two can­di­dates who have come any­where near to chal­leng­ing his fron­trun­ner sta­tus nation­wide, and put him in an even stronger posi­tion in Iowa.

Iowa Democ­rats are more lib­er­al than Demo­c­ra­t­ic vot­ers in oth­er states, but War­ren and Sanders’ absence in the final weeks might allow Biden to win over those skep­ti­cal of his pol­i­tics with his “Uncle Joe” per­sona – a pow­er­ful tool in a retail pol­i­tics ori­ent­ed state that is over­whelm­ing­ly white and large­ly rural.

Iowa is undoubt­ed­ly plays an out­sized role in pres­i­den­tial pol­i­tics — over half of the time, the win­ner of the Iowa cau­cuses goes on to secure the pres­i­den­tial nom­i­na­tion from their par­ty. How­ev­er, that does not mean dis­as­ter for the sen­a­tors remain­ing in the race. With over a dozen can­di­dates still run­ning, a deci­sive vic­to­ry by any sin­gle cam­paign is high­ly unlikely.

Very few del­e­gates are at stake in Iowa, and of the sen­a­tors, at least Sanders and War­ren appear posi­tioned to be able to con­tin­ue cam­paign­ing for many weeks beyond the ear­ly states with the resources they’ve already secured.