NPI's Cascadia Advocate

Offering commentary and analysis from Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Monday, October 28th, 2019

Washingtonians overwhelmingly support impeaching Donald Trump, NPI poll finds

More than three in five Washingtonians disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance and almost that many want the House to impeach him, a new statewide survey conducted for the Northwest Progressive Institute has found.

61% of likely 2019 Washington State voters said they disapproved of Trump’s job performance, a figure identical to our finding from last May. 36% said they approved of Trump’s job performance, and 4% were not sure.

Asked about impeachment, 58% of respondents said they favored impeaching Trump, while 38% were opposed. 4% were not sure.

Our survey of nine hundred likely 2019 Washington State voters was in the field from Tuesday, October 22nd through Wednesday, October 23rd.

The poll utilizes a blended methodology inclusive of cellphone only voters, with 53% of respondents participating via landline and 43% participating via text.

The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level.

Here’s our job performance question and responses:

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?

ANSWERS:

  • Disapprove: 61%
  • Approve: 36%
  • Not sure: 4%

Note that percentages do not add to one hundred due to rounding.

Here are the numbers by region:

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?

ANSWERS:

  • King County
    • Disapprove: 78%
    • Approve: 19%
    • Not sure: 3%
  • North Puget Sound
    • Disapprove: 54%
    • Approve: 41%
    • Not sure: 5%
  • South Sound
    • Disapprove: 54%
    • Approve: 41%
    • Not sure: 5%
  • Olympic Peninsula and Southwest Washington
    • Disapprove: 61%
    • Approve: 38%
    • Not sure: 1%
  • Eastern Washington
    • Disapprove: 46%
    • Approve: 49%
    • Not sure: 5%

If you’d like to see the numbers from our earlier finding, they are available in this Cascadia Advocate blog post from May 2019.

While the overall number disapproving of Trump’s job performance stayed the same at 61%, there were some changes at the regional level.

Disapproval of Trump in King County shot up to 78% while declining in North and South Puget Sound. Trump’s approval also slid in the Olympia Peninsula and Southwest Washington while slightly rebounding in Eastern Washington.

Nationwide polls show that more Americans also disapprove of Trump’s job performance than approve, although the disparity is less pronounced than it is in Democratic-controlled states such as Washington.

Washingtonians who support impeachment are about as numerous as those who disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Here’s our impeachment question:

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose impeaching Donald Trump?

ANSWERS:

  • Support: 58%
  • Oppose: 38%
  • Not sure: 4%

Here are the numbers by region:

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose impeaching Donald Trump?

ANSWERS:

  • King County
    • Support: 71%
    • Oppose: 22%
    • Not sure: 7%
  • North Puget Sound
    • Support: 50%
    • Oppose: 46%
    • Not sure: 4%
  • South Sound
    • Support: 52%
    • Oppose: 45%
    • Not sure: 3%
  • Olympic Peninsula and Southwest Washington
    • Support: 59%
    • Oppose: 38%
    • Not sure: 3%
  • Eastern Washington
    • Support: 48%
    • Oppose: 50%
    • Not sure: 2%

Note that the margin of error is higher for the regional subsamples.

It is notable that a majority of the electorate supports impeaching the lawless Donald Trump in every region of the state except for Eastern Washington, where voters are almost evenly divided on the question.

All of the Democrats in Washington’s congressional delegation have announced support for an impeachment inquiry, while none of the Republicans (Jaime Herrera-Beutler, Dan Newhouse, Cathy McMorris Rodgers) have followed suit.

Herrera-Beutler is the only one of the three who represents a slice of Washington State that’s west of the Cascades. Our research indicates her constituents aren’t happy with Trump and want him impeached. Yet Herrera-Beutler is still voting in lockstep with Trump and top House Republican Kevin McCarthy.

Herrera-Beutler is also the only Republican left who represents a district that borders the Pacific Ocean in the contiguous forty-eight states. The Republican Party considers her among its most vulnerable incumbents and has classified her campaign as needing help from the party’s House campaign arm.

Challenger Carolyn Long turned heads around the country last cycle by seemingly coming out of nowhere to give Herrera-Beutler her first credible challenge in a long time (pun intended). Herrera-Beutler’s share of the vote decreased from 61.75% in 2016 to 52.67%% in 2018. That performance spurred Long to seek a rematch.

With an earlier start and increased name recognition, Long has an even better chance of winning in 2020. She will also benefit from the Democratic Party making WA-03 its top electoral target, having already picked up WA-08 in 2018.

We imagine that as the Democratic impeachment inquiry moves along, support for impeachment will continue to grow, both in Washington and across the country.

The evidence against Trump is already compelling — it shows that he abused his power and violated his oath of office. Voters don’t like that. They want Trump held accountable. It’s bad enough that one branch of our federal government isn’t functioning well — for our country to emerge from this mess, we need our system of checks and balances to work. The House must do its job and impeach Trump.

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