This week’s Texas 2022 midterm primary elections, held on Tuesday, March 1st, produced a few surprises amidst mostly expected results.
As expected, Beto O’Rouke and Governor Greg Abbott were easily nominated to represent the Democratic and Republican parties in the gubernatorial race.
Abbott, who had $60 million available with which to campaign, protected his right flank from challengers Adam West and Dan Huffines. A byproduct of the relatively competitive Republican primary for Governor was that over 800,000 more Republicans than Democrats voted in this specific primary race in a state that’s been watched closely for signs that it could soon turn purple.
Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick had a better result than Governor Abbott in his primary due to facing no significant opposition.
Even with a slightly redrawn congressional map, there weren’t many districts where incumbents encountered any unexpected difficulties.
In one surprise, Republican Representative Van Taylor failed to attain a majority and avert a May 24th runoff election, despite having the advantages of incumbency and solid fundraising. Van Taylor outspent his combined opponents’ spending by almost six-to-one. But he only managed 48.7% of the vote, which means he’ll be heading into a runoff of Tuesday, May 24th against former Collin County Judge Keith Self, who’s campaign was largely focused against Taylor’s vote to accept the Presidential Electoral College result in 2020.
After Election Night, Representative Van Taylor opted to suspend his campaign in light of an affair with a former partner of an ISIS/Daesh militant, Tania Joya, made public by right wing website Breitbart.
Taylor has until March 16th to file a request with Texas Republican Chairman Matt Rinaldi to withdraw his name from the runoff. Once that happens, Keith Self will become the nominee and the primary runoff election for the office in late May will not be held, Self becoming Congressman-elect by default.
The effect of Donald Trump’s endorsements and condemnations were decidedly mixed. While he may have had an effect on Taylor’s candidacy, in other districts, Trump didn’t get the outcome he wanted.
For example, incumbent Dan Crenshaw, who had criticized Trump’s 2020 attacks on election officials, easily won in his primary in the 2nd Congressional district.
And Dawn Buckingham, Trump’s choice for Land Commissioner, will be headed to the late May runoffs with only 41.4% of the Republican vote.
Another surprise was that Attorney General Ken Paxton, who also had Trump’s endorsement and who had seemed to be able to shrug off almost any accusation made against him, including a federal indictment for securities fraud (made in 2015 and still not yet having gone to trial) and an unrelated FBI investigation, was only able to garner 42.7% of the vote and will be heading to a runoff in late May against George P. Bush, the son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and presently the state Lands Commissioner.
In the 15th Congressional District, which was redrawn from being Democratic leaning to Republican leaning, there were competitive primaries on both sides.
Just over twenty-eight hundred more Democratic than Republican votes were cast – amidst a large statewide Republican gubernatorial vote advantage in this primary. General elections are often very different elections than primaries or runoffs, but the results are worth paying attention to.
In the 28th Congressional District, progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros, a twenty-eight year-old immigration attorney, qualified for a runoff in late May against conservative Democrat Henry Cuellar, who received 48.43% of the vote and a seven hundred and sixty-seven vote advantage over Cisneros.
In the 2020 Democratic primary, Cellular gained an absolute majority of 51.8% and a 2,690-vote advantage. One difference since then is that Cuellar has been subjected to an FBI investigation, where agents entered Representative Cuellar’s home as voting was starting in the primary, possibly related to the Republic of Azerbaijan, which recently signed a defense pact with Russia just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Cuellar has released a video declaring his innocence.
Another difference between the two elections may have been the candidacy of a third Democratic candidate, Tannya Benavides, who garnered 2,289 votes. Her website espouses positions similar to Cisneros’. Will Benavides’ voters go for Cisneros in the late May runoff? Time will tell.