Presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden enjoys a twenty-two point lead over incumbent Donald Trump in Washington and is on track to carry the Evergreen State in a landslide this November, a new survey conducted for the Northwest Progressive Institute has found.
59% of respondents surveyed by Public Policy Polling from Tuesday, May 19th to Wednesday, May 20th, said they would vote for Biden this fall, while only 37% said they would vote for Trump. 5% said they were not sure.
Four years ago, when PPP asked Washington voters about the presidential race on our behalf, only 49% said they would vote for presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, while 37% said they would vote for Trump. 13% were not sure.
Clinton went on to receive 54% of the popular vote, while Trump received 38%.
This week’s finding mirrors our finding from last autumn, when we found that Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders would all do almost equally well against Donald Trump. 60% expressed support for Warren in a head-to-head matchup against Trump, while 59% expressed support for Biden and 58% expressed support for Sanders if they were to face Trump.
(59% is also the percentage of respondents who said they would vote for an unnamed Democratic challenger to Donald Trump in our May 2019 survey.)
Half a year has now passed since our October 2019 survey, but Biden’s position in Washington State remains completely unchanged. Also unchanged is Trump’s position. Note that in 2016, our poll found him at 37% against Clinton; this year’s survey finds him at 37% against Biden. That is the exact same percentage.
What that suggests is that Trump’s base is about the same size, percentage wise, as it was in 2016; it has experienced neither net growth nor net shrinkage.
On the other hand, the universe of voters aligned with Trump’s Democratic opponent has grown by about ten points from 2016 to 2020. That’s great news for the Washington State Democratic Party, which is hoping for a big year.
Here are the statewide numbers again, and the exact question we asked:
QUESTION: If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
ANSWERS:
- Joe Biden: 59%
- Donald Trump: 37%
- Not sure: 5%
Now, here are the numbers by age, party, and race/ethnicity:
QUESTION: If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
ANSWERS:
- Age
- 18 to 29: 59% for Biden, 31% for Trump, 10% not sure
- 30 to 45: 64% for Biden, 31% for Trump, 5% not sure
- 46 to 65: 58% for Biden, 38% for Trump; 4% not sure
- 65 & older: 53% for Biden, 44% for Trump, 3% not sure
- Party
- Democratic: 94% for Biden, 4% for Trump, 1% not sure
- Republican: 87% for Trump, 10% for Biden, 3% not sure
- Independent: 52% for Biden, 38% for Trump, 10% not sure
- Race/Ethnicity
- Hispanic/Latino
- 66% for Biden
- 34% for Trump
- White
- 57% for Biden
- 39% for Trump
- 4% not sure
- Asian or Pacific Islander
- 62% for Biden
- 20% for Trump
- 17% not sure
- Black/African American
- 81% for Biden
- 4% for Trump
- 15% not sure
- Native American
- 72% for Biden
- 16% for Trump
- 13% not sure
- Other
- 63% for Biden
- 34% for Trump
- 3% not sure
Our survey of 1,070 likely 2020 Washington State voters was in the field from Tuesday, May 19th through Wednesday, May 20th, 2020.
It utilizes a blended methodology, with automated phone calls to landlines and text message answers from cell phone only respondents.
The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.0% at the 95% confidence level.
If Joe Biden carries Washington State by twenty-two points this November, his margin of victory would surpass even that of Barack Obama’s from 2008, which was one of the biggest Democratic routs in American political history.
Here are the results of the popular vote in Washington State for President and Vice President of the United States going back sixty years for comparison:
Year | Democratic Nominee | % | Republican Nominee | % |
2016 | Hillary Clinton | 54.30% | Donald Trump | 38.07% |
2012 | Barack Obama | 56.16% | Mitt Romney | 41.29% |
2008 | Barack Obama | 57.34% | John McCain | 40.26% |
2004 | John Kerry | 52.82% | George W. Bush | 45.64% |
2000 | Al Gore | 50.13% | George W. Bush | 44.56% |
1996 | Bill Clinton | 49.84% | Bob Dole | 37.30% |
1992 | Bill Clinton | 43.41% | George H.W. Bush | 31.97% |
1988 | Michael Dukakis | 50.05% | George H.W. Bush | 48.46% |
1984 | Walter Mondale | 42.86% | Ronald Reagan | 55.82% |
1980 | Jimmy Carter | 37.32% | Ronald Reagan | 49.66% |
1976 | Jimmy Carter | 46.11% | Gerald Ford | 50.00% |
1972 | George McGovern | 38.64% | Richard Nixon | 56.92% |
1968 | Hubert Humphrey | 47.23% | Richard Nixon | 45.12% |
1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 61.97% | Barry Goldwater | 37.37% |
1960 | John F. Kennedy | 48.27% | Richard Nixon | 50.68% |
We have to go all the way back to 1964 to find a presidential election in which the margin of the winning candidate’s popular vote was greater than twenty points in Washington. That was the election in which President Lyndon Baines Johnson, or LBJ, thoroughly trounced Republican nominee Barry Goldwater.
Our research has consistently indicated that the 2020 presidential election could be incredibly historic. If Joe Biden wins Washington State by a big margin, we could see a noticeable coattails effect that boosts the Washington State Democratic Party’s candidates up and down the ballot.
Think blue wave, part two.
The party has candidates running in every single legislative district in the state, and it has strong challengers taking on three of the Republicans’ most prominent in-state officeholders: U.S. Representative Jaime Herrera-Beutler, Secretary of State Kim Wyman, and Treasurer Duane Davidson. Their expected challengers are Carolyn Long, NPI’s Gael Tarleton, and Mike Pellicciotti, respectively.
“Since 2016, we’ve seen a historic surge in commitment to public service across our state and I couldn’t be more proud of the candidates we have running in every legislative district,” said Tina Podlodowski, Chair of the Washington State Democratic Party, in a statement released after Filing Week had concluded.
“This fall, voters will have a chance to do more than reject the failed leadership of Donald Trump, they’ll have the opportunity to elect a new generation of community leaders who they can trust to steer our state through the public health and economic crisis we’re facing,” Podlodowski added.
Podlodowski’s counterpart, Caleb Heimlich, the Chair of the Washington State Republican Party, feels very differently. He and his staff claim that voters are tired of Democratic governance, and they continually talk of turning Washington red.
“The stakes are higher than ever this election and after years of unsustainable budgets and tax increases on hardworking Washingtonians, it’s our turn to fight back,” Heimlich said in a May 14th message to the Republican Party’s statewide email list. “After what Democrats did last session, voters all across the state want to see real change, and that starts right at home in our local communities.”
The stakes are indeed high, but all the data we have suggests that a supermajority of Washington voters want more Democratic governance, not less. Donald Trump’s deeply corrupt, self-serving regime just isn’t working for them. However, Jay Inslee’s data-driven, science-oriented, public health based leadership is.
COVID-19 and its fallout will unquestionably be the defining issue of the 2020 presidential election. But even before the pandemic hit, Biden and the Democrats were on a strong trajectory in Washington State. Our latest poll finding shows that the party remains on that trajectory, even though our state’s economic health and social fabric have profoundly changed within a matter of weeks.
We activists need to give some support to Democratic candidates in all the Republican-held congressional districts. The 3rd (which should be flippable this year) is at the top of the list, but we should also prioritize the 4th and 5th to some degree.