Visualization of NPI's February 2024 Republican presidential primary poll finding
Visualization of NPI's February 2024 Republican presidential primary poll finding (NPI graphic)

Neo­fas­cist Don­ald Trump’s cam­paign is on course to blow out rival Nik­ki Haley in the Ever­green State’s upcom­ing pres­i­den­tial pri­ma­ry and cap­ture all of Wash­ing­ton’s 2024 Repub­li­can Nation­al Con­ven­tion del­e­gates, a new poll con­duct­ed last week for the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute has found.

A whop­ping 77% of like­ly Repub­li­can pres­i­den­tial pri­ma­ry vot­ers sur­veyed Feb­ru­ary 20th-23rd by Civiqs for NPI said Trump was their pref­er­ence this year, while only 8% said Haley was. Anoth­er 7% said they planned to vote for Ron DeSan­tis, who dropped out after a dis­ap­point­ing fin­ish in the Iowa Repub­li­can cau­cus­es. 1% of respon­dents backed Chris Christie and anoth­er 1% backed Vivek Ramaswamy, who are also out of the race but still on the bal­lot, like DeSantis.

An addi­tion­al 6% of respon­dents said they were undecided.

It would­n’t be unprece­dent­ed for Trump to receive the sup­port of more than sev­en in ten Repub­li­can vot­ers in Wash­ing­ton, because he’s done it before.

The last time Trump appeared on a pres­i­den­tial pri­ma­ry bal­lot in Wash­ing­ton with a bunch of rivals who had stopped cam­paign­ing, he gar­nered 75.46% of the vote. That was back in May of 2016, dur­ing Barack Oba­ma’s presidency.

Trump had been com­pet­ing against Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Ben Car­son, but they all bowed out before Wash­ing­ton’s pri­ma­ry was held. Trump crushed them: Cruz gar­nered 10.81% of the vote, Kasich got 9.78%, and Car­son got 3.96%.

Trump faced no rivals on the 2020 Repub­li­can pres­i­den­tial pri­ma­ry bal­lot four years ago (where­as Democ­rats had a large field for much of the cycle) and accord­ing­ly received 98.4% of the vote, with 684,239 Wash­ing­to­ni­ans cast­ing votes for him. There were also 11,136 write-in votes for anoth­er candidate.

Despite his incite­ment of the Jan­u­ary 6th insur­rec­tion, despite his pletho­ra of fed­er­al and state indict­ments, despite big judg­ments against him in mul­ti­ple civ­il cas­es, despite his record of los­ing, and despite his com­ments about being a dic­ta­tor on day one and let­ting Rus­sia do what­ev­er it wants to our allies, a huge num­ber of Repub­li­can vot­ers are still hap­pi­ly with Trump. And he knows it.

For­mer South Car­oli­na Gov­er­nor Nik­ki Haley has become increas­ing­ly com­fort­able cri­tiquing Trump on the cam­paign trail, but her argu­ments just aren’t res­onat­ing with most Repub­li­can vot­ers. She has yet to win a nom­i­nat­ing contest.

How­ev­er, she has still out­per­formed many pun­dits’ expec­ta­tions, and her totals in New Hamp­shire, South Car­oli­na, and Michi­gan sug­gest she could end up with more than 8% of the vote in Wash­ing­ton’s pres­i­den­tial pri­ma­ry. Those unde­cid­ed vot­ers have to go some­where, for instance, if they’re real­ly going to vote.

Add the unde­cid­ed group to Haley’s camp, and that would make 14%.

Haley’s performance in primary states

(States that have held cau­cus­es aren’t shown below)

New Hamp­shire

  • Don­ald Trump: 54.4% (176,385 votes)
  • Nik­ki Haley: 43.2% (140,290 votes)

South Car­oli­na

  • Don­ald Trump: 59.8% votes (51,905 votes)
  • Nik­ki Haley: 39.5% (298,681 votes)

Michi­gan (incom­plete results)

  • Don­ald Trump: 68.2% (676,422 votes)
  • Nik­ki Haley: 26.5% (263,386 votes)

It is also pos­si­ble that our poll over­states Trump’s sup­port, though the 2016 results sup­port the argu­ment that three quar­ters of Repub­li­can vot­ers in Wash­ing­ton are com­fort­able vot­ing for a sex­u­al preda­tor and a patho­log­i­cal liar.

And Haley’s per­cent­ages have been declin­ing from state to state. She was in the for­ties in New Hamp­shire, dropped into the thir­ties in South Car­oli­na, and is now in the twen­ties in Michi­gan. It’s entire­ly pos­si­ble that she’ll be in the teens when Wash­ing­ton weighs in. It does­n’t help that she has­n’t done any seri­ous cam­paign­ing here, though there is a group work­ing to build sup­port for her can­di­da­cy, which includes House Minor­i­ty Leader Drew Stokesbary.

Wash­ing­ton is what The Green Papers char­ac­ter­izes as a “win­ner take most” state. The Ever­green State’s del­e­gate allo­ca­tion will work as fol­lows:

All 43 of Wash­ing­ton’s del­e­gates to the Repub­li­can Nation­al Con­ven­tion are allo­cat­ed to pres­i­den­tial con­tenders based on the results of the vot­ing in today’s Pres­i­den­tial Primary.

  • Each of the state’s 10 con­gres­sion­al dis­tricts is allo­cat­ed 3 delegates. 
    • If a can­di­date receives a major­i­ty of the vote or only 1 can­di­date receives 20% of the vote, that can­di­date receives all 3 delegates.
    • If there are 2 can­di­dates who receive at least 20% of the pri­ma­ry vote, then the top vote get­ter will be allo­cat­ed 2 del­e­gates and the oth­er can­di­date will be allo­cat­ed 1 delegate.
    • If no can­di­date receives at least 20% of the vote or more than 2 can­di­dates receive at least 20% of the vote, then the top three vote get­ters each receive 1 delegate.
  • 13 at-large del­e­gates (10 base at-large del­e­gates plus 0 bonus del­e­gates plus 3 RNC del­e­gates) are allo­cat­ed based on the statewide vote. At-Large can­di­dates must receive at least 20% of the total statewide vote in order to be allo­cat­ed delegates. 
    • If a can­di­date receives a major­i­ty of the statewide vote, that can­di­date receives all 13 delegates.
    • Oth­er­wise, allo­ca­tion is in pro­por­tion to the total statewide vote NOT the total vote of those can­di­dates receiv­ing 20% or more of statewide vote. 
      • Com­pute the num­ber of del­e­gates allo­cat­ed to each Pres­i­den­tial can­di­date: 13 del­e­gates × can­di­date’s vote ÷ total statewide vote. Round to the near­est whole number.
      • If more than 13 del­e­gates are allo­cat­ed, sub­tract 1 del­e­gate from the can­di­date or can­di­dates fur­thest from the round­ing thresh­old until 13 del­e­gates have been allocated.
      • If few­er than 13 del­e­gates are allo­cat­ed (due to the 20% thresh­old or round­ing), those del­e­gates become unbound.

Note that the above only gov­erns del­e­gate allo­ca­tion to the Repub­li­can Nation­al Con­ven­tion. Demo­c­ra­t­ic Par­ty rules have some sim­i­lar­i­ties, but dif­fer in many ways. Democ­rats will also send a larg­er del­e­ga­tion to their convention.

Here’s the exact ques­tion we asked and the answers we received:

QUESTION: If the Repub­li­can pres­i­den­tial pri­ma­ry were being held today, who would you vote for?


  • Don­ald Trump: 77%
  • Nik­ki Haley: 8%
  • Ron DeSan­tis: 7%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 1%
  • Chris Christie: 1%
  • Unde­cid­ed: 6%

Before ask­ing this ques­tion, we asked our respon­dents how they felt about Don­ald Trump. 57% of them said they had a “very favor­able” opin­ion of him, while 27% said they had a “some­what favor­able” opin­ion, for a total of 84% favor­able. Only 16% had an unfa­vor­able opin­ion. 1% were not sure. Here’s the exact ques­tion we asked and the respons­es again, this time in list form:

QUESTION: What is your opin­ion of Don­ald Trump?


  • Very favor­able: 57%
  • Some­what favor­able: 27%
  • Some­what unfa­vor­able: 5%
  • Very unfa­vor­able: 11%
  • Not sure: 1%

Our sur­vey of 522 like­ly 2024 Wash­ing­ton State Repub­li­can pri­ma­ry vot­ers was in the field from Tues­day, Feb­ru­ary 20th through Fri­day, Feb­ru­ary 23rd, 2024.

The poll was con­duct­ed for NPI by Civiqs, among select­ed mem­bers of the fir­m’s research pan­el. All sam­pled indi­vid­u­als were emailed by Civiqs and respond­ed using a per­son­al­ized link to the sur­vey at The sur­vey has a mar­gin of error of ± 5.5% at the 95% con­fi­dence lev­el, account­ing for the design effect.

Like­ly Repub­li­can pri­ma­ry vot­ers are respon­dents who answered “Yes, in the Repub­li­can pri­ma­ry” to ques­tion 1 of the sur­vey, which asked if they were plan­ning to vote in the Wash­ing­ton pres­i­den­tial pri­ma­ry in March. Respon­dents must have also self-iden­ti­fied as a Repub­li­can or Inde­pen­dent in a pre­vi­ous Civiqs sur­vey. Only Repub­li­can and Inde­pen­dent vot­ers in Wash­ing­ton were sampled.

Wash­ing­ton’s 2024 Repub­li­can and Demo­c­ra­t­ic pres­i­den­tial pri­maries will con­clude on Tues­day, March 12th. For a vote to count, it must be cast for only one can­di­date from one par­ty, and the vot­er must affirm they wish to affil­i­ate with the major par­ty of the can­di­date they are vot­ing for by check­ing a box on the bal­lot return enve­lope. Bal­lots are due back by 8 PM Pacif­ic Time.

We have an exten­sive Q&A about vot­ing in the pri­ma­ry here for those inter­est­ed.

About the author

Andrew Villeneuve is the founder and executive director of the Northwest Progressive Institute, as well as the founder of NPI's sibling, the Northwest Progressive Foundation. He has worked to advance progressive causes for over two decades as a strategist, speaker, author, and organizer. Andrew is also a cybersecurity expert, a veteran facilitator, a delegate to the Washington State Democratic Central Committee, and a member of the Climate Reality Leadership Corps.

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