The Washington State Democratic Party appears nicely positioned to maintain its legislative majorities in the Washington State House and Senate in the coming presidential election, with a majority of likely voters saying they’d prefer continued Democratic governance to a Republican takeover next January.
51% of 789 likely 2024 voters surveyed earlier this month (February 13th-14th) by Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute said they’d prefer Democratic majorities after the next election, while 41% said they’d prefer Republican majorities. Another 8% said they were not sure.
It’s the latest indication that Republicans are utterly failing to make inroads with Washington voters, despite their fervent attempts to exploit the housing crisis, the fentanyl and substance abuse crisis, and the rising cost of living.
If you follow the House and Senate Republican caucus accounts on social media, you’ve probably noticed they regularly criticize Democratic policies — proposed or adopted — with hashtags like “UnwiseWA” or “UnaffordableWA” or “UnsafeWA.” Unfortunately for them, their memes and narratives aren’t moving the needle. Washington voters seem mostly satisfied with Democratic leadership and want to continue along the path the state has been on for another two years.
This is the second straight cycle in which we’ve asked Washington voters which party they’d like to see in charge of the Legislature after the next election.
In 2022, we asked this question three times and consistently found a lead for Democrats. Republicans ignored or dismissed our research, but when the midterm elections were certified, our data was vindicated.
Republicans suddenly found themselves with fewer seats than before, with their much-hyped “red wave” having totally failed to materialize. They’re under no obligation to take these results seriously, but if they think we can’t be right, then they’re setting themselves up for another Election Night shock this November.
Here’s the exact question we asked and the responses we received:
QUESTION: Which party would you prefer have majority control over the Washington State House and the Washington State Senate in Olympia after the next election: the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
ANSWERS:
- Would prefer Democratic majorities in the State House and Senate after the next election: 51%
- Would prefer Republican majorities: 41%
- Not sure: 8%
Our survey of 789 likely 2024 Washington State voters was in the field from Tuesday, February 13th through Wednesday, February 14th, 2024.
The poll utilizes a blended methodology, with automated phone calls to landlines (42%) and online answers from respondents recruited by text (58%).
It was conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% at the 95% confidence interval.
NPI and PPP have worked together for a decade and have a track record of excellence, as detailed in this 2022 electoral polling recap and this 2020 one.
Detailed comparison to our 2022 findings
In the 2021–2022 biennium, Democrats controlled 57 House seats and 28 Senate seats. In the 2022 midterms, they gained one House seat and one Senate seat, respectively, increasing their majorities to 58 and 29, with Clyde Shavers’ win in the 10th District and Sharon Shewmake’s victory in the 42nd District.
Our preelection polling at this juncture two years ago found only a five point lead for Democrats. They weren’t above the fifty percent mark, but they did have a lead in our legislative control question:
February 2022 Responses
- Democratic Party: 49%
- Republican Party: 44%
- Not sure: 7%
Poll of 700 likely November 2022 Washington State voters, conducted February 17th-18th, 2022
By June, Democrats had expanded their lead to nine points:
June 2022 Responses
- Democratic Party: 51%
- Republican Party: 42%
- Not sure: 7%
Poll of 1,039 likely November 2022 Washington State voters, conducted June 1st-2nd, 2022
By October, the margin shrunk back to around where it had been in February:
October 2022 Responses
- Democratic Party: 49%
- Republican Party: 43%
- Not sure: 8%
Poll of 782 likely November 2022 Washington State voters, conducted October 19th-20th, 2022
Again, as mentioned, Democrats went on to do extremely well in legislative races in 2022. They held seats that were open (such as in the 47th District), reelected their incumbents, and reduced Republicans’ numbers by one in each chamber in a year when Republicans had hoped to flip control of both chambers, having enjoyed an average lead of just six to seven points in our polling.
Here, Democrats have a ten point lead in our generic legislative question. They have entered double-digit territory for the first time.
Republicans should be very, very, very worried. It’s possible they’ll lose even more seats this year, bringing Democrats closer to having supermajority control.
We don’t know what will happen, of course. Master Yoda put it well in Star Wars Episode II: Impossible to see, the future is. But the available evidence is not encouraging for the Party of Trump. They’re in a hole and making it deeper.
The twin cudgels that Republicans say Democrats used so effectively against them in 2022 — Trump and abortion — have arguably only gotten more potent since.
Pretending the Dobbs decision isn’t hurting people and ignoring Trump’s fascist rhetoric and attacks on democracy is not going to help Republicans improve their odds this year. Rather than getting themselves back on the road to becoming a normal or semi-normal political party again, they’ve become even more cult-like. Voters have noticed, and our polling strongly suggests they’d like to keep Democrats at the helm instead of giving Republicans a chance to govern.
Comments are closed.