NPI's Cascadia Advocate

Offering commentary and analysis from Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Thursday, May 21st, 2020

Donald Trump is becoming more unpopular in Washington State’s suburbs, NPI poll finds

For the third con­sec­u­tive year, a statewide sur­vey com­mis­sioned by the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute has found that three out of five like­ly Wash­ing­ton vot­ers dis­ap­prove of Don­ald Trump’s job per­for­mance, sug­gest­ing that most peo­ple liv­ing in the heart of Cas­ca­dia have well formed opin­ions about the cur­rent occu­pant of 1600 Penn­syl­va­nia Avenue in the oth­er Wash­ing­ton.

60% of respon­dents sur­veyed by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling on NPI’s behalf this week said they dis­ap­proved of Trump’s job per­for­mance, while 35% approved.

5% said they were not sure.

These find­ings are vir­tu­al­ly unchanged from last year (2019), when we found 61% dis­ap­proved of Trump’s job per­for­mance and 35% approved.

Sim­i­lar­ly, the year before that (2018), we found that 59% dis­ap­proved of Trump’s job per­for­mance while 35% approved. 6% were not sure.

Though each of our sur­veys was tak­en a year apart and had a dif­fer­ent sam­ple size, the statewide num­bers have stayed remark­ably con­sis­tent.

Even after impeach­ment and the onset of the nov­el coro­n­avirus pan­dem­ic, we’re still see­ing about the same over­all fig­ures as before, which is a tes­ta­ment to the strong feel­ings that peo­ple have about Trump. He is eas­i­ly the most polar­iz­ing per­son to occu­py the high­est office in the land in mod­ern Amer­i­can his­to­ry.

How­ev­er, we did see move­ment in the num­bers at the region­al lev­el. Let’s dive into those. First, here are the statewide num­bers again:

QUESTION: Do you approve or dis­ap­prove of Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump’s job per­for­mance?

ANSWERS:

  • Dis­ap­prove: 60%
  • Approve: 35%
  • Not sure: 5%

Now, here are the num­bers by region:

QUESTION: Do you approve or dis­ap­prove of Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump’s job per­for­mance?

ANSWERS:

  • King Coun­ty
    • Dis­ap­prove: 72%
    • Approve: 23%
    • Not sure: 5%
  • North Puget Sound
    • Dis­ap­prove: 65%
    • Approve: 32%
    • Not sure: 4%
  • South Sound
    • Dis­ap­prove: 69%
    • Approve: 27%
    • Not sure: 4%
  • Olympic Penin­su­la and South­west Wash­ing­ton
    • Dis­ap­prove: 48%
    • Approve: 47%
    • Not sure: 5%
  • East­ern and Cen­tral Wash­ing­ton
    • Dis­ap­prove: 43%
    • Approve: 52%
    • Not sure: 6%

The only region where Trump is above water (at least in this sur­vey!) is East­ern and Cen­tral Wash­ing­ton. 52% of vot­ers there said they approved of Trump’s job per­for­mance, while 43% dis­ap­proved and 6% were not sure.

Last year, we found almost the inverse in that region.

Trump also fared bet­ter in the Olympic Penin­su­la and South­west Wash­ing­ton (coun­ties south and to the west of metro Seat­tle) in this year’s sur­vey.

How­ev­er, his gains among rur­al vot­ers were entire­ly can­celed out by a much high­er mar­gin of dis­ap­proval in the South Sound and North Sound regions.

It seems vot­ers in Pierce and Sno­homish coun­ties are increas­ing­ly aligned with vot­ers in King Coun­ty on the ques­tion of Trump’s job per­for­mance.

This is an omi­nous devel­op­ment for the Wash­ing­ton State Repub­li­can Par­ty, because statewide majori­ties are made and lost in the North Sound and South Sound regions. Trump’s unpop­u­lar­i­ty could be a drag on the entire par­ty’s tick­et, espe­cial­ly its statewide incum­bents Kim Wyman and Duane David­son.

With no cred­i­ble Repub­li­can can­di­date run­ning for gov­er­nor this year, the par­ty sim­ply does­n’t have a high pro­file fig­ure like Lar­ry Hogan or Char­lie Bak­er who might be able to help it devel­op an iden­ti­ty dis­tinct from Trump’s tox­ic brand. Every sin­gle one of the par­ty’s guber­na­to­r­i­al hope­fuls is a Trump admir­er.

Our sur­vey of 1,070 like­ly 2020 Wash­ing­ton State vot­ers was in the field from Tues­day, May 19th through Wednes­day, May 20th, 2020.

It uti­lizes a blend­ed method­ol­o­gy, with auto­mat­ed phone calls to land­lines and text mes­sage answers from cell phone only respon­dents.

The poll was con­duct­ed by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling for the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute, and has a mar­gin of error of +/- 3.0% at the 95% con­fi­dence lev­el.

Nation­wide polls show that more Amer­i­cans also dis­ap­prove of Trump’s job per­for­mance than approve, although the dis­par­i­ty is less pro­nounced than it is in Demo­c­ra­t­ic-con­trolled states such as Wash­ing­ton.

Tomor­row, May 22nd, we’ll share our head to head pres­i­den­tial matchup find­ing, which pit­ted pre­sump­tive Demo­c­ra­t­ic nom­i­nee Joe Biden against Trump. Join us here on the Cas­ca­dia Advo­cate on Fri­day for a dis­cus­sion of Wash­ing­to­ni­ans’ views on which par­ty should con­trol the White House for the next four years.

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One Comment

  1. Wake up, rur­al vot­ers! If Trump gets anoth­er term, our com­mu­ni­ties are doomed. Turn away from the dark­ness; embrace com­pe­ten­cy and hon­esty in gov­ern­ment.

    # by Elizabeth Nash :: May 22nd, 2020 at 6:54 AM

One Ping

  1. […] State’s sub­urbs, NPI poll finds – NPI’s Cas­ca­dia Advo­cate Trump Don­ald Trump is becom­ing more unpop­u­lar in Wash­ing­ton State’s sub­urbs, NPI poll finds  NPI’s Cas­ca­dia […]

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