A majority of Washington voters are still planning on voting for Democratic candidates in this year’s election for the United States House of Representatives, the Northwest Progressive Institute’s most recent survey of the Evergreen State electorate has found.
51% of 615 likely voters surveyed last week by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for NPI said they’d vote for the Democratic candidate if congressional elections were being held now, while 40% said they’d vote for the Republican candidate. 9% were not sure. Those numbers are similar to what we found in February, when 52% said they’d vote for the Democratic candidate and 39% said they’d vote for the Republican candidate.
They’re also similar to the Washington State results from our April 2024 tri-state poll conducted by Civiqs, which included voters from Oregon and Idaho along with voters from Washington. In that survey, 54% of the Evergreen State subsample favored Democrats and 39% favored Republicans, while 7% were not sure.
Washington has ten seats in the United States House of Representatives. Eight of those are currently held by Democrats and two by Republicans, reflecting the state’s Democratic lean. Washington presently has one tossup district (the 3rd, represented by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez), one Democratic leaning battleground district (the 8th, represented by Dr. Kim Schrier), six solidly Democratic districts, and two solidly Republican districts.
Having captured the 8th in 2018 and recaptured the 3rd in 2022, Democrats now represent all the parts of Washington that are west of the Cascades in Congress, as well as a few chunks of Central Washington (the 8th is a cross-Cascades district). Republicans represent the remainder of Central Washington plus Eastern Washington.
One of those Republicans, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, is retiring. But the district isn’t considered a top pickup opportunity for Democrats, owing to its political makeup.
The party’s focus is on playing defense: reelecting its incumbents (Suzan DelBene, Rick Larsen, Gluesenkamp Perez, Pramila Jayapal, Schrier, Adam Smith, and Marilyn Strickland) plus keeping WA-06 blue. That’s the district currently represented by Derek Kilmer, who has decided to retire after having served in the House for over a decade.
Gluesenkamp Perez is being challenged by several Republicans, including the man she defeated in 2022: odious ultra MAGA extremist Joe Kent. The odds of a rematch seem high, and the outcome is likely to be close, as it was two years ago. Biden may not carry the 3rd, and Gluesenkamp Perez will accordingly need independents and a few Republicans to cross over to be able to earn a second term.
Elsewhere in Western Washington, the party seems to be in really good shape, as these percentages indicate. With a big field of Republican candidates competing to replace McMorris Rodgers in the 5th, and with Gluesenkamp Perez now the state’s most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, there’s less heat on frontline Representative Kim Schrier, who is seeking a fourth term in the 8th. Sch beaten three different Republicans in the last six years: Dino Rossi, Jensen, and Matt Larkin. This year, she’ll probably face Carmen Goers in the general election. Goers was the only Republican to file against Schrier. She hasn’t raised much money or run a very visible campaign so far.
Here is the exact text of the question we asked and the answers we received:
QUESTION: If the election for the United States House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?
ANSWERS:
- Would vote for the Democratic candidate: 51% (-1% since February)
- Would vote for the Republican candidate: 40% (+1% since February)
- Not sure: 9% (no change since February)
Our survey of 615 likely 2024 Washington State voters was in the field from Wednesday, May 15th through Thursday, May 16th, 2024.
The poll utilizes a blended methodology, with automated phone calls to landlines (45%) and online answers from respondents recruited by text (55%).
It was conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.0% at the 95% confidence interval.
NPI and PPP have worked together for a decade and have a track record of excellence, as detailed in this 2022 electoral polling recap and this 2020 one.
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