Early 2020 Democratic primary results from Texas and Oklahoma are in, and Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders look to have split the states thus far.
Oklahoma
The Associated Press has called the primary in the Sooner State in favor of Joe Biden. At the time this post was written, with 50% of precincts reporting, Biden was taking home 36% of the vote.
Bernie Sanders is twelve points behind at 24%. Biden is leading in every county except Cleveland County, home to the University of Oklahoma in Norman.
CNN’s exit poll indicated that Biden would secure around 40% of the vote.
Commentators were painting Biden’s performance in Oklahoma as an extension of his commanding Super Tuesday performance in the South. Biden has carried Alabama, North Carolina, and Virginia by decisive margins.
Out of Oklahoma’s forty-two delegates, twenty-four will be allocated based on results from each of the five congressional districts, while thirteen will be allocated based on statewide results.
The remaining question is whether Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren will reach viability — and where they will do it. At the time of writing, Michael Bloomberg was just above the 15% viability threshold in Oklahoma at 15.19%. Warren was lagging behind at 13.3% in her birth state (she grew up in Norman).
Texas
Sanders leads in the Lone Star State, but it’s early.
Early results in Texas show Bernie Sanders in the driver’s seat.
With 4% of precincts reporting, Sanders is at 29%.
Biden is at 22.5%, and Bloomberg is at 19%.
It is noteworthy that 8% of the vote in Texas has been cast for Pete Buttigieg and 4% has gone to Amy Klobuchar… candidates who exited the race within the past seventy-two hours and threw their support to the former Vice President.
Their percentages will likely decrease as more ballots are counted from today.
While both fail to hit the 15% viability threshold, Buttigieg and Klobuchar have had an impact in Texas: 22% of voters surveyed in the CNN exit poll in Texas stated they decided within the last few days, and 49% of them broke for Biden.
Voters who made their decision earlier (36%) favored Sanders.
The CNN live blog offered this hypothesis on why the race is so close:
As in other states, exit polls show black Democratic primary voters in Texas heavily favored Joe Biden, with roughly six in ten supporting the former vice president — but blacks make up only about a fifth of the Texas electorate.
Senator Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, drew more than four in ten Hispanics, who account for just under a third of the Texas primary electorate.
Voters in the Lone Star State also split by age group, giving Biden a way to make up the difference. He was heavily favored by voters over forty-five, who made up about two-thirds of the Democratic electorate, while those under forty-five went for Sanders.
149 delegates are to be allocated based on proportional results in the thirty-one senatorial districts, while seventy-nine delegates will be allocated based on the statewide result (unlike most states, the Texas Democratic Party allocates state delegates based on senatorial districts).
228 of 261 delegates from Texas will be pledged based on today’s voting.
That is the second-largest delegate haul available both tonight and in the entire nominee selection process; California is the only larger state.
With so many delegates at stake, clearing the 15% threshold statewide and in certain senatorial districts in Texas is critical for all candidates.
Bloomberg looks like he will do so as he sits at 19% with a quarter of precincts in.
Just like in Oklahoma, however, Warren looks like she will finish under the threshold at around 13%, marking another disappointing night for the senior United States Senator from Massachusetts.