Filing Week has come and gone without bringing any increase in the number of candidates running to be Washington State’s next Attorney General, but even so, the race remains wide open, at least on the Democratic side. That’s the takeaway from our latest survey of likely voters, which fielded last week and found a plurality of respondents not sure about their choices in the contest for the state’s top law enforcement job.
Asked who they’d support for Attorney General if the election were being held today, 45% said they were not sure. 36% said they would vote for Republican Pete Serrano, the only Republican who filed. 10% said they would vote for Democrat Manka Dhingra, a state senator from the 45th Legislative District and a Northwest Progressive Foundation boardmember. 9% said they would vote for Democrat Nick Brown, a former U.S. Attorney for Western Washington who is now a litigation partner at Pacifica Law Group.
This isn’t the first time we’ve found Brown and Dhingra tied: our November survey had them right next to each other as well, with Dhingra at 14% and Brown at 13%. Serrano wasn’t a declared candidate then, so that poll asked about a hypothetical Republican candidate, Paul Graves, who received 38%. 34% said they were not sure.
But it’s a different dynamic than what we saw in our February survey. In that poll, Brown jumped out ahead of Dhingra, opening up a seven-point advantage. That lead is completely gone, and what’s more, the number of voters who say they’re undecided has increased and is higher than what we saw either in February or November.
It’s a good reminder that this is a lower salience downballot race. And that Democratic voters have an important choice to make this summer. Unlike Republican voters, they have more than one candidate who aligns with their values and desired policy directions. They can’t simply go with the Democrat because there’s more than one Democrat. So, it’s not surprising that 60% of Democratic voters told us they were not sure.
Independent voters are largely in the same boat: 50% of them aren’t sure, either.
With fewer people having picked a candidate for Attorney General, the percentages that the Democratic candidates are receiving are more susceptible to noise in our polling. Recall that the February finding had Dhingra and Brown in the teens. Contrast that with the governor’s race, where there’s been a big gulf between Democrats Bob Ferguson and Mark Mullet for an entire year (June, November, February, and now May).
It’s also useful to remember that all polls are snapshots in time. They don’t and can’t predict the future. At best, they suggest what could be happening.
No other organization publicly polls downballot races such as Attorney General like NPI does — at least not this far before the election. We ask mainly because we like having data to compare our homestretch findings to. Having polled seasonally over the course of an entire cycle gives us a better understanding of how a contest unfolded.
Pete Serrano has no Republican competition, so he’s got the Republican vote nailed down. He’ll get to the November general election. But the other spot appears to be up for grabs. At this juncture, we can’t say that either Democrat is the frontrunner.
Here’s the exact question that we asked and the answers we received:
QUESTION: If the election for Attorney General of Washington State were being held today, would you vote for Republican Pete Serrano, Democrat Nick Brown, or Democrat Manka Dhingra?
ANSWERS:
- Republican Pete Serrano: 36% (+1% since February)
- Democrat Manka Dhingra: 10% (-2% since February)
- Democrat Nick Brown: 9% (-10% since February)
- Not sure: 45% (+11% since February)
Our survey of 615 likely 2024 Washington State voters was in the field from Wednesday, May 15th until Thursday, May 16th, 2024.
The poll utilizes a blended methodology, with automated phone calls to landlines (45%) and online answers from respondents recruited by text (55%).
It was conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for the Northwest Progressive Institute and has a margin of error of +/- 4.0% at the 95% confidence interval.
NPI and PPP have worked together for a decade and have a track record of excellence, as detailed in this 2022 electoral polling recap and this 2020 one.
These survey results aren’t the only available evidence that this is a closely contested race that’s giving Democratic voters and progressive constituencies lots to think about. A couple days after this poll finished fielding, the Washington State Labor Council held its annual Committee on Political Education (COPE) Convention in Seattle. At COPE 2024, delegates decided to endorse both Nick Brown and Manka Dhingra for this position. It’s the only statewide race for which they resolved to make a dual endorsement.
On the fundraising front, Brown’s campaign points out that he has raised more money than Dhingra: $1,004,038.43 as of when this post was written, compared to Dhingra’s $691,778.76. It should be noted that Dhingra couldn’t raise money during a three-month period that began in December, a month before the legislative session, and ended after the House and Senate adjourned Sine Die. She was legally prohibited from doing so by the state’s elections code. Brown doesn’t hold a state-level office, so that prohibition did not apply to him. He was able to raise money all winter long.
And while receipts are important, they’re not the only fiscal metric. How a candidate spends their money is of paramount importance, and also when they spend it. A campaign at an overall financial disadvantage can get excellent results by spending their resources more efficiently and effectively than their competition.
So far, Brown has reported $367,246.09 in expenditures. Dhingra has reported $428,697.32 in expenditures. Despite having raised less than Brown, she’s spent more.
Interested in diving into the crosstabs with us?
If you’re interested in the crosstabs of our AG polling — past and present — we invite you to subscribe to The Chinook Beacon, NPI’s newest publication and The Cascadia Advocate’s youngest sibling. The Beacon, which just launched this week, is a newsletter available exclusively to paying subscribers that provides deep insights from our research as well as commentary on electoral and political trends. Subscriptions cost $20/month or $240/year, and you can also become a Founding Member for $600/year.
We expect to publish new editions of The Beacon every other week through November. After that, the publication schedule will likely go to twice a month.
Two months until voting begins and our next statewide poll fields
In the next few weeks, we’ll see how Brown and Dhingra invest the remaining funds they’ve raised. Their choices will be pivotal in determining the fates of their campaigns. Only one of them will get to move on to the general election and face Pete Serrano and they both know it. The sprint to the August Top Two election is on.
