"Obama Takes on President Bush and John McCain"

BarackObama.com, video (09:32):

Watertown, SD
May 16, 2008

Thank you!

What an extroadinary night it has been.

Less than two hours ago, our first-ever Spring Fundraising Gala (which will become an annual tradition, by the way!) came to a close. It was a fantastic success, and speaking on behalf of every one of us at the Northwest Progressive Institute, I want to say thank you...to everyone who came, who contributed, who supported our work. This event was in the works for a long time, and to have seen it come to fruition so spectacularly is immensely gratifying.

I'm going to be remembering this very fondly for a long time.

Several people have already told me they really enjoyed the food, the live music, and the caramel corn we gave out. I'm glad the flourishes turned out well. I was even more thrilled, however, with the main program.

Chip Hanauer and Major General Eaton gave very compelling addresses, and Darcy Burner was outstanding (as usual). She's really sharpened her skill as a public speaker, and when she gets to Congress, I can't wait to witness her eloquence on C-SPAN (I'll be setting the DVR to record all her speeches).

Mike West did a sueprb job tying everything together as Master of Ceremonies, and Don Mock and band kept the live jazz coming for much of the evening.

It made for a very pleasant, enjoyable atmosphere.

The Washington netroots community was strongly represented at the gala. We were honored to be joined by writers from Group News Blog, On the Road to 2008, HorsesAss, Evergreen Politics, MajorityRules, McCranium, and Washblog.

Peter Goldmark, our Democratic candidate for Commissioner of Public Lands, was also kind enough to grace us with his presence.

Tonight, we managed to raise a substantial amount of money to take this organization to the next level. More importantly, though, we learned a lot. Next year's Spring Fundraising Gala will build on everything we learned this first go-around, and it's our hope that it will come to be known as a can't miss event.

"The Amazing Money Machine"

Joshua Green (The Atlantic):

Obama is a gifted politician by anyone’s measure, but what distinguishes him from earlier insurgents is his ability to fully harness the excitement that his candidacy has created, in votes and in dollars. Three forces had to come together for this to happen: the effect of campaign-finance laws in broadening the number and types of people who fund the political process; the emergence of Northern California as one of the biggest sources of Democratic money; and the recognition by a few Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and venture capitalists that the technology and business practices they had developed in their day jobs could have a transformative effect on national politics.

You can view the whole article here.

Spring gala just twenty four hours away

In a few minutes, we'll be exactly one day out from our first ever Spring Fundraising Gala. It's going to be a very exciting night...speakers include Chip Hanauer, Darcy Burner, Major General Paul Eaton (Ret.) and yours truly, with Mike West as Master of Ceremonies and live music by Don Mock.

There'll be a tasty buffet and no host bar; menu choices include pasta, chicken, and beef, served with salad, rolls, garlic cheese bread, and/or vegetables.

It's a wonderful opportunity to learn more about the Northwest Progressive Institute, meet our team in person, and enjoy the company of many neighbors, friends, and activists in the local netroots community.

Tickets are $60 (individual) or $90 (household). They may be purchased online to the right via Amazon Payments until tomorrow evening, or at the door. Students and low income families can get in for $20 - please contact us to request this special discount.

If you can't make it, please consider a donation. You can donate online, again using Amazon Payments to the right. Or you may send checks by U.S. Mail to:

Northwest Progressive Institute
Post Office Box 264
Redmond, WA 98073

Thanks to everyone who has supported our work so far...we hope to see you at Redmond Town Center tomorrow evening.

California Supreme Court overturns ban on marriage equality

In a 4-3 decision today, California's state Supreme Court ruled that current state marriage laws are unconstitutional, setting the stage for marriage equality to become a reality in the Golden State.

The decision by the Court, however, will not be the final word on the issue as right-wing groups have circulated petitions for a ballot measure that would amend the state Constitution to ban same-sex marriage.

It's interesting to note that the Court is dominated by Republicans. Even more so, Governor Schwarzenegger had this to say:

"I respect the court's decision and as governor, I will uphold its ruling," he said in a statement. "Also, as I have said in the past, I will not support an amendment to the constitution that would overturn this state Supreme Court ruling."[emphasis mine]

A copy of the full opinion can be found here.

"New Math for November"

Timothy Egan (NY Times, "Outpost" blog):

PORTLAND, Ore. — This state is known for many things — good wine, the imperial branding of the Nike swoosh, a political culture that produces contrarians of both parties — but ethnic diversity is not one of them. This state has an African-American population of less than 2 percent.

And yet on May 20, when voters here could finally end the Democratic presidential marathon by giving Senator Barack Obama an outright majority of pledged delegates, don’t expect to hear much about how a black man has broadened the playing field for his party by winning a heavily white state. Apparently, white people in Gore-Tex country don’t count as much as white people in Appalachia. Nor, if you look at Colorado, a Bush state that Obama won this year, do white people who sing “Rocky Mountain High” matter as much as white people who sing, “Almost heaven, West Virginia.”

It’s absurd, of course, to tout the implied superiority of “hard-working Americans, white Americans,” as Hillary Clinton said last week of her core supporters. And those other white Americans, in Iowa, Wisconsin, or here in Oregon — all heavy Obama supporters — are slackers? Not to mention black supporters.

In Oregon, in recent days, we’ve seen fresh themes for the general election presented by Obama and Senator John McCain — and they have very little to do with dated, tribal politics. The fruit trees in the Willamette Valley may be in full blossom, but in Oregon it’s November in May.

The map of counties that Hillary Clinton won big this year shows a broad swath of Appalachia and rural America, places where a Democrat is unlikely to prevail in the general election. The scab of racial animus can be thick in those counties, judging by exit polls of Clinton supporters who say they would never vote for a black man, and by anecdotal reporting.

The political math of the future lies with the new America — fast-growing communities in Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon and elsewhere, where people are trying to step out of the cement shoes of race. Yes, race is still a factor there — it’s coded and complex — but not as raw as in other states. The transient nature of these places, where nearly everybody is from somewhere else, makes it difficult for old biases to harden.

McCain surely knows this, even if his party has yet to get the message. The speech that he gave here on climate change marked a big break with President Bush and the troglodyte wing of his party. Look for similar divorce announcements in coming months, even on race. In that speech, McCain envisioned a nightmare of runaway forest fires, heat waves stifling the cities, storms swamping the coasts, unless something is done. “The United States will lead,” he said, “and will lead with a different approach.” In every way, the speech was a slap at know-nothings like Rush Limbaugh, who tells his 20 million listeners almost every day that global warming is a massive hoax.

It is buried deep in the Republican family tree, but the environment used to be an issue that the party owned. And here in Oregon, the stunning ocean beaches are accessible to all, cities are livable and open space is plenty because of a sainted, long-ago Republican governor, Tom McCall.

Meanwhile, McCain’s party tried to hold onto a Republican Congressional seat in Mississippi this week by using racial scare-mongering from the Jim Crow era. There, a Democrat, Travis Childers, won a district that President Bush carried by 25 percentage points in 2004, the third red seat lost this year in special elections for the House. Republicans aimed for the deepest fears of white southerners by tying Childers to Obama’s nutty former preacher, Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.

The preacher may be good ratings for Fox News. But as it happens, he’s not as much ballot box poison as is Bush. The president with the lowest approval ratings in 70 years is more damaging to McCain than Rev. Wright is to Obama, according to a recent Gallup poll. “By November,” said David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, “every voter will know McCain is offering a third Bush term.” That’s the election fight, in a nutshell.

Obama’s themes in Oregon were future-directed — new energy policy, new foreign policy, new thinking on race. It goes without saying that he needs to carry blue collar whites, as Democrats have usually done. But Obama can lose Ohio and West Virginia — both fell to Republicans in 2004 — and make up for it with Colorado and Virginia, a combined 22 electoral votes from Bush states now trending Democratic.

When Obama spoke in the central Oregon city of Bend, the crowd at Summit High School was nearly all-white, and as enthusiastic as any gathering of Beavers and Ducks on a Saturday afternoon. In the sea of white faces, there was one person who stood out — the woman who introduced Obama, Myrlie Evers-Williams, widow of Medgar Evers, the civil rights leader who was shot in the back in Mississippi in 1963.

It turns out she lives in Bend, one of the tomorrow communities that will decide this year’s election. The county that includes Bend has grown by 30 percent since 2000. It is full of independents, an Oregonian trait, and people like Mrs. Evers-Williams, who see something here they never saw in the place they left behind.

Thanks and praise to Mr. Egan who helps to counter the chatter about "white voters" and Obama from some political gossip columnists.

In Brief - May 15, 2008

Around the Northwest

• Lawyers for Sonics owner Clay Bennett have taken the scumbag approach to the lawsuit with the City of Seattle.
• Exclusive business summit comes to Microsoft.
• Contrary to the Discovery Channel, the deadliest catch is off the coast of Oregon, Washington and Northern California.
  

Around the Nation

• As prices go higher, here are some resources to save on the cost of gas.
• The City of Los Angeles is preparing to launch an aggressive water conservation plan.
• President Bush invoked the Nazis, while in Israel, launching into a tirade on Barack Obama's foreign policy.
• The wingnut morality police have taken issue with Starbucks' logo.
  

Around the World

• A trial for CIA operatives and Italian intelligence officials regarding the kidnap and torture of an Egyptian cleric has begun in Italy.
• A marble bust of Julius Caesar, dating to between 49 and 46 B.C., has been found by French archaeologists in the Rhône river.
• NATO agreement to establish a cyber defense center.
  

This Day in History

• 1618 - Johannes Kepler confirms his third law of planetary motion.
• 1905 - Las Vegas, Nevada is founded.
• 1988 - The Soviet Red Army begins its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Fifty State Strategy Pays Off

It was only just a short few years ago when Governor Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy was being laughed at by veteran Clinton insiders James Carville and Paul Begala, among others. Maybe it's because Dean wasn't Clinton insider Terry McAuliffe.

Here's Carville on November 15, 2006, after Democrats took control of the House and Senate:

He added, “I think he should be held accountable.” He added, “I would describe his leadership as Rumsfeldian in its competence.”

And here's Paul Begala (h/t to Markos) bloviating on what he hoped was Howard Dean's imminent demise.

BLITZER: Very quickly, is Howard Dean in trouble?

BEGALA: No. I think Candy's report was spot on.

He -- yes, he's in trouble, in that campaign managers, candidates, are really angry with him. He has raised $74 million and spent $64 million. He says it's a long-term strategy. But what he has spent it on, apparently, is just hiring a bunch of staff people to wander around Utah and Mississippi and pick their nose. That's not how you build a party. You win elections. That's how you build a party. [emphasis mine]

Let's look at the scoreboard. Since Howard Dean became chair of the DNC, Democrats have won majorities in the House and Senate, expanded on those majorities by winning special elections in districts they weren't expected (by conventional wisdom) to win, are poised to expand those majorities even more in 2008, and have a good shot at making history by electing an African-American man as President of the United States.

McAuliffe was a great fundraiser as chairman, but he's no Howard Dean. People-powered Howard has changed the political landscape, restored the power to the people, and showed us all that Democrats can win anywhere and everywhere.

Democrat Travis Childers winning Mississippi's 1st Congressional District last night shows that the 50 state strategy works. President Obama the Democratic Party would do well to keep Howard Dean as chair (NPI's position is that the decision is not Obama's to make).

BREAKING: Edwards to endorse Obama

Traditional news outlets are reporting that likely Democratic nominee Barack Obama will receive the endorsement of former rival John Edwards in just under an hour at a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

All we can say is....it's about time. We've waited months to hear this:

Officials announced the news shortly after Mr. Obama landed here late this afternoon. The campaign has timed the announcement to coincide with the start of the major evening newscasts, which would have otherwise focused on Senator Hillary Clinton’s landslide victory in West Virginia, which raised new questions about Mr. Obama’s strength with white working class voters.

Mr. Obama’s campaign is hoping it will be taken as the start of a partywide coalescence around Mr. Obama as the Democratic nominee.

The endorsement ended months of speculation over Mr. Edwards’s preference in the Democratic nominating contest, during which he mostly stayed silent and close to home in Chapel Hill with his wife, Elizabeth.

But in recent days, Mr. Edwards had made his choice all but obvious, giving a series of television interviews hinting that he was close to endorsing Mr. Obama, who last week he called “clearly the nominee at this point.”

And it was little surprise to close observers of Mr. Edwards on the campaign trail in the past year, when he regularly attacked so-called establishment politicians like Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and teamed with Mr. Obama against her in debates.

Earlier today, Barack Obama's campaign received the endorsement or NARAL Pro-Choice America, which came as a bitter disappointment to the Clinton campaign. Clinton allies are expressing great displeasure at the endorsement, such as Ellen Malcom of Emily's List, who has condemned NARAL's move:

I think it is tremendously disrespectful to Sen. Clinton . . . to not give her the courtesy to finish the final three weeks of the primary process...It certainly must be disconcerting for elected leaders who stand up for reproductive rights and expect the choice community will stand with them.

So what you're saying is that it is disrespectful for NARAL to make an endorsement at this point in the process. Come on! Any individual or organization is free to endorse a candidate whenever they want. You're one of Senator Clinton's earliest backers, so you clearly don't think it's disrespectful to take sides, especially early in the process. How can you complain about the NARAL endorsement?

Unlike you, they gave serious consideration to both candidates, and came to a decision through a vote.

What's done is done. Senator Clinton has fought hard for the nomination, but she has lost. She can be as determined as she wants - the math is just not in her favor.

"Hillary Has a Choice"

E.J. Dionne:

Hillary Clinton still has a lot to win this year, but not the presidency and not the vice presidency.

With Barack Obama having effectively secured the Democratic presidential nomination, it is hard for the Clinton camp to focus on her successes in this contest. But Clinton now possesses strengths she did not enjoy when the campaign began.

She is, more than ever before, her own person, having emerged decisively from the shadow of her husband. Indeed, she did far better when Bill Clinton played a supporting role than when he was out front, notably during the disastrous South Carolina primary. There is now a Hillary Clinton constituency in the Democratic Party distinct from the one the former president built.

Cartoonists and satirists mocked Hillary Clinton’s incarnation as a fighter for blue-collar voters. Yet those who know her well think the fighting Hillary is closer to her self-image—as someone who has had to overcome many blows in life—than the inevitable nominee who wove a web of entitlement around herself and ran on experience, much of which was derivative of her husband’s.

The Hillary Clinton of the late primaries dispelled this portrait, campaigning more on empathy than résumé, and more on the problems of today’s economy than on her husband’s economic achievements.

And Clinton did her party and Obama a favor by focusing on the Democrats’ potential weaknesses among blue-collar whites. This problem is not unique to Obama. Both Al Gore and John Kerry underperformed with these voters, particularly among males. That Obama has been pushed off his oratorical pedestal and encouraged to connect with disaffected whites will save him trouble in the fall. Clinton, widely seen as the champion of older, well-educated feminist women, could be remembered as the politician who brought the party back to its working-class roots.

Yet these achievements have come at a high cost for Clinton, and a $20-million debt may be the least of her troubles. To consolidate her gains while repairing the damage to her standing from a bitter contest, she will have to abandon efforts to block Obama’s nomination. She can keep fighting, or she can become a powerful figure in the Democratic Party. She cannot do both.

In particular, where Clinton was once a largely unifying force within her party (that, after all, was why her nomination had been seen as inevitable), she is now far more divisive. Polling by the Pew Research Center, for example, found that while Clinton enjoyed a 67-32 favorable-to-unfavorable ratio among Obama supporters in January, she is now viewed favorably by only 51 percent of Obama supporters and unfavorably by 46 percent.

Especially striking is the ground Clinton has lost among African-Americans, whom she once saw as a bulwark of her candidacy. In August 2007, Pew found that Clinton was viewed favorably by 86 percent of African-Americans, including 44 percent who viewed her very favorably. In its most recent survey, her favorability rating among African-Americans was down to 56 percent, including only 22 percent who viewed her very favorably.

For both Clintons, one of the most painful aspects of this campaign has been their alienation from so many black voters. Any moves that risk further divisions in the Democratic Party—Hillary Clinton’s comment last week about Obama’s weakness among voters who are “hardworking” and “white” didn’t help—will aggravate a problem she wants to go away.

So would an orchestrated campaign by Clinton supporters to push Obama hard to make her the vice presidential nominee. An aggressive “Clinton for vice president” campaign would simply reopen fights that are just ending and offer Obama two bad choices: either to look weak by capitulating to pressure from the defeated wing of the party or to look spiteful by refusing to take Clinton on.

On the other hand, choosing a Clinton supporter as a running mate—the obvious possibilities are Govs. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania and Ted Strickland of Ohio or Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana—could serve Obama’s interest while assuaging a certain sourness that lingers in the Clinton camp.

But the best antidote to this melancholy is for her supporters to see that the Hillary Clinton who has emerged from these primaries is a stronger and more independent figure than the candidate who once hoped she could parlay the past into the White House.

Her future depends on discovering a new role, even if it is not the one she had originally hoped to play.

Democratic Wave Begins to Form

In an ominous development for endangered Northwest Republican incumbents like Dave Reichert and Gordon Smith, a Democrat has won Mississippi's 1st Congressional District, a district that broke heavily Republican in 2004 for George W. Bush.

With 94% of the precincts reporting, Democrat Travis Childers is defeating Republican Greg Davis, 53%-47%, or 54029 votes for Childers to 47,361 votes for Davis.

Greg Davis even tarred and feathered Travis Childers, in this ad, with the dreaded "liberal" label for his endorsement by Barack Obama. It's the kind of ad that has worked in the past in a Republican district against a Democratic candidate. Not this time. Hope and change overcame business as usual.

This is the biggest news of the night. The pundits are falling all over themselves and can't say enough about how big this is for Democrats and how much trouble Republicans are in.

With a previous win for Democrats in Louisiana, the Democratic wave is forming and threatens to sweep Bush lackeys like Reichert and Smith out of office.

Update: Jonathan Singer at MyDD sums it up well.

1. I don't want to go so far as to say that this is the end of the Republican Party, because it's not. But this is as bad news as the GOP could possibly get at this point. They lost a district that leans 6 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in Illinois in March. They lost a district that leans 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole earlier this month in Louisiana. Now they lost a district that leans 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in Mississippi. If they can't win in Mississippi's first congressional district, where can they win

2. The Republicans tried to make this election about two people: Barack Obama and Reverend Jeremiah Wright. And despite running this type of campaign, they lost. While it is true that Childers distanced himself from his party (and implicitly from Obama), the fact is that the Obama/Wright smears simply DID NOT WORK. The Republicans are going to have to get a new game plan, and the establishment media are going to have to get a new meme. Sorry folks.

Hillary: "It ain't over until the lady in the pants suit says it's over"

Jonathan Alter (Newsweek):

Yogi Berra, meet the Clintons. "It ain't over till it's over" neatly defines their current philosophy on the presidential race. Forget the brilliant Berra ambiguity of the word "over." How about "it"? What is the game they're now playing?

The math is clear: Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president unless he's caught on tape taking cash from Tony Rezko or vacationing in Hawaii with Louis Farrakhan. But the only thing dependable about the Clintons is that they never quit. Hillary has more than enough delegates to hassle Obama with the threat that she'll go all the way to the Denver convention or otherwise jeopardize party unity if he doesn't seat Florida and Michigan exactly as she wants. And she may rally her millions of supporters to demand that Obama offer her the No. 2 slot. Don't put it past her.

Before getting to Hillary's game, let me introduce a new ace in the hole for Obama. For all the talk of numbers, there's one that will be most important for superdelegates: 1.5 million. That reflects the 1.5 million names of donors that the Obama campaign has on file. Because no contribution below $200 is publicly reported, the vast majority of those names are in Obama's exclusive possession, to be shared as he wishes. As Graham Richard, the longtime mayor of Fort Wayne, Ind., explained it to me last week, it's all about the Benjamins. Local officials (that's who most superdelegates are) need the tens of thousands of Democratic donors on that list who come from their states. Their re-election depends on successful fund-raising. No Obama at the top of the ticket, no list. No list, and you may be back selling insurance after November.

Another hidden factor pushing superdelegates away from Hillary is "Florigan" or "Michida"—or whatever we should call these scofflaw states that moved up their primaries in defiance of party rules. Out of desperation, Hillary is putting all her chips on the injustice done to Floridians and Michiganders, even though she said early in the process that their votes "shouldn't count." Never mind the hypocrisy here. Never mind that Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe was the one who first insisted the rules be enforced. (When Michigan Sen. Carl Levin wanted to move up that state's primary in 2004, McAuliffe, then party chairman, screamed at him: "If I allow you to do that, the whole system collapses! The rules are the rules." This is from McAuliffe's own memoirs.) The problem for Hillary is that party officials in the other 48 states don't give a rat's patootie about seating Florida and Michigan. In fact, they're angry at those states for jumping the line, then whining about it. The whole imbroglio, says Simon Rosenberg of the New Democrat Network, has been "instrumental" in driving superdelegates to Obama.

To keep that trickle of superdelegate commitments from turning into a flood, Hillary will likely continue the delightful and uplifting argument that she made to USA Today that she has a large and expanding base among "hardworking Americans, white Americans." This is code for "America isn't ready for a black man," but it's also unsubstantiated. Her share of white, working-class voters actually diminished considerably from Ohio and Pennsylvania to North Carolina and Indiana, largely because the more recent primary states are younger. It's "the granny gap," stupid. For all her claims of a broad coalition, Hillary's only reliable base is older white women with no college education. She obviously doesn't crush Obama among white voters more generally or she would already be the nominee.

With big wins in West Virginia and Kentucky, Hillary will likely hang on for at least a month. She can keep campaigning with a bare-bones, McCain '07-style operation and, despite some legal impediments, pay off debts with huge fund-raisers after the election. One key moment will come at the May 31 meeting of the rules committee of the Democratic Party, which is packed with Clintonites. She could likely manipulate the committee to push the Florigan question to the floor of the Denver convention in late August. That doesn't guarantee a floor fight, but the threat of one gives Hillary a weapon to use both in private and in public.

In private, negotiations will open between the Clinton and Obama forces. Even if Obama has reached the magic number of 2,025 delegates needed to nominate (Clinton is now claiming the real number is higher), the Clintonites will have plenty to talk about that relates to the management of the convention. And Hillary has the wily and heedless Harold Ickes on her side. In the past, Ickes has caused big problems for the eventual nominee, and in those days he held fewer cards than he does this year. In 1980, Jimmy Carter led Ted Kennedy by more than 700 delegates at the end of the primaries—but Ickes, representing Kennedy, created a series of procedural obstacles that turned that year's convention into a sour mess and helped doom Carter in the fall. In 1988, Michael Dukakis had sewn up the nomination but needed to deal with the complex question of what Jesse Jackson wanted. Ickes, representing Jackson, made Dukakis look weak, which softened him up for George H.W. Bush in the fall. Obama has said he would negotiate with Ahmadinejad, but he'd be smart not to extend the same courtesy to Ickes.

Publicly, Hillary may hint that she is interested in the vice presidency. This is what I've picked up from some of her friends in recent days. Even if she decides against it, keeping the option alive gives her political leverage through the spring and summer. Her legions of backers will clamor for Obama to name her, and he'll look bad if he excludes her from his shortlist. This could force him to name a running mate sooner than he would like. He could even get caught in a jam like John F. Kennedy's in 1960.

That year, JFK offered the vice presidency to Lyndon Johnson, who was the powerful Senate majority leader. Bobby Kennedy thought LBJ would say no, but he didn't. JFK and LBJ were forced into a shotgun marriage that left neither of them happy. Is something similar in store for 2008? It all depends, as Bill Clinton once testified, "on what the meaning of the word 'is' is."

New Poll Shows Merkley Leading Democrats in Oregon Senate Race

A new Survey USA poll conducted for KATU in Portland shows that, one week before the Oregon primary, Jeff Merkley is leading his fellow Democrats in the race for the nomination to take on incumbent Senator Gordon Smith.

Merkley leads with 31%, followed by Steve Novick with 27% and Candy Neville with 11%. Though within the margin of error (+/- 4%), compared to and identical poll done by Survey USA 11 days ago, Merkley has risen 3 points and Novick is down 3 points. In essence, the race is a statistical tie going into the home stretch.

However, Survey USA notes that the Big Mo is with Merkley.

That said, momentum is with Merkley among a number of key groups: Among men, Novick had led by 10, today trails by 2. Among voters age 18 to 49, Novick had led by 5, today trails by 2. Among voters 50+, Novick and Merkley had tied; today, Merkley leads by 7. Merkley and Novick are effectively even in the greater Portland area. Merkley leads by 13 in the rest of the state. Among the 43% of voters who have already mailed their ballot, Merkley leads by 6; among those who are likely to return a ballot, Merkley leads by 3.

After spending last weekend in Portland and watching the TV ads for this race, one thing is for sure: Gordon Smith has his hands full.

Join Governor Gregoire for a BBQ

On May 29, join supporters of Governor Chris Gregoire for a barbecue in support of her re-election campaign.

The barbecue will be at 5:30 p.m. at the Women's Club of Olympia, 1002 Washington St. SE in Olympia.

This is a great opportunity to show your support for our Governor and to get an opportunity to talk with her in an informal setting.

To RSVP, please email Dayna Lurie at dlurie at chrisgregoire dot com or phone: (206) 382-2008.