Poll Watch: Jay Inslee holds sizable lead over Andy Hill and Bill Bryant, PPP finds

Respect­ed pub­lic opin­ion research firm Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling has just pub­lished the results of a poll it recent­ly con­duct­ed in Wash­ing­ton on 2016 races and vot­er atti­tudes towards back­ground checks on gun sales, mar­i­jua­na, and mar­riage free­dom. It finds that both Gov­er­nor Jay Inslee and Sen­a­tor Pat­ty Mur­ray are in excel­lent shape for reelec­tion, lead­ing all poten­tial Repub­li­can opponents.

The poll (PDF) sur­veyed eight hun­dred and sev­en­ty-nine reg­is­tered vot­ers from May 14th to May 17th, yield­ing a mar­gin of error of plus or minus 3.3%. 80% of inter­views were con­duct­ed over the phone and 20% were inter­viewed over the Inter­net to reach respon­dents with­out land­line phones.

PPP found that both Bill Bryant and Andy Hill have very low statewide recog­ni­tion. Most vot­ers sur­veyed did­n’t know enough about either to give an opin­ion. Vot­ers are split about equal­ly on Inslee’s job per­for­mance, with 41% say­ing they approve and 42% say­ing they dis­ap­prove (a sta­tis­ti­cal tie).

Asked to choose between Inslee and Bryant, 46% said they would pick Inslee and 34% said they would pick Bryant.

Inter­est­ing­ly, Hill fared even worse. 45% said they would pick Inslee in an Inslee-Hill race, while only 31% said they would pick Hill.

Con­gress­man Dave Reichert has bet­ter name recog­ni­tion than Bryant or Hill, but does only as well as Bryant against Inslee, gar­ner­ing 34% to Inslee’s 45%.

PPP also test­ed a McKenna/Inslee matchup for 2016. McKen­na does bet­ter than Hill or Bryant in a hypo­thet­i­cal rematch, but still trails Inslee by five points (43% to 38%), which PPP points out is more than he lost by in 2012.

Pat­ty Mur­ray, mean­while, is in good shape too, with 47% approv­ing of her job per­for­mance to 39% who don’t approve. Mur­ray beats out Dave Reichert, Jaime Her­rera-Beut­ler, and Cathy McMor­ris Rodgers by more than ten points each. Per­haps not sur­pris­ing­ly, she does the best against McMor­ris Rodgers.

In a hypo­thet­i­cal matchup with Rob McKen­na for U.S. Sen­ate, Mur­ray pre­vails by five points (46% to 41%) over the for­mer Attor­ney Gen­er­al, just like Inslee.

While this polling sug­gests that McKen­na would be the strongest can­di­date the Repub­li­cans could field in 2016 for either gov­er­nor or U.S. sen­a­tor, it does­n’t appear that he is inter­est­ed in either race. Repub­li­cans might want him to step up to the plate again, but he may have no desire to end up as the next Dino Rossi, which is under­stand­able. Bryant is already run­ning against Inslee, with Hill soon to join him, but Repub­li­cans still need to find a can­di­date to chal­lenge Murray.

It’ll be hard to find some­one who can beat Michael Baum­gart­ner’s ane­mic num­bers from 2012 against Maria Cantwell, con­sid­er­ing how thin the par­ty’s bench is.

PPP also found that Wash­ing­ton vot­ers feel very good about their recent deci­sions to legal­ize mar­i­jua­na, require uni­ver­sal back­ground checks on gun sales, and allow all cou­ples to mar­ry regard­less of sex­u­al orientation.

56% of respon­dents sup­port mar­riage equal­i­ty and mar­i­jua­na legal­iza­tion, while 68% of vot­ers sup­port uni­ver­sal back­ground checks on gun sales.