Adams County joins the NO on I‑1125 column

Last night at the NO on I‑1125 par­ty, I was asked sev­er­al times for a guessti­mate of what the final spread on I‑1125 would be. Though I don’t much care for mak­ing pre­dic­tions, I replied that I thought it was con­ceiv­able that we might reach 53% no by the time the elec­tion was certified.

Now, it’s pos­si­ble that we won’t quite cross the 53% thresh­old. But I think we just might, based on a cou­ple of fac­tors: the strong no vote in King Coun­ty and the weak yes vote in many east­ern Wash­ing­ton counties.

NPI’s expec­ta­tion is that the no vote is going to get stronger pret­ty much every­where, even in King Coun­ty, where it’s already pret­ty high.

A lit­tle ear­li­er this after­noon, Adams Coun­ty became the first coun­ty to switch sides and turn against I‑1125 after post­ing updat­ed returns. Adams went from 50.21% yes to 50.16% no in less than twen­ty-four hours.

Now, that’s not a huge swing, and Adams is a small coun­ty, but if that’s evi­dence of a big­ger trend across east­ern Wash­ing­ton (as our team thinks it is), then that could mean we’re going to end up doing bet­ter than we thought we were.

Oth­er coun­ties in east­ern Wash­ing­ton on the verge of defect­ing to the NO col­umn include Lin­coln, Colum­bia, and Spokane.

In west­ern Wash­ing­ton, it’s pos­si­ble that Pierce and Grays Har­bor could flip to the NO side. All of those coun­ties cur­rent­ly have a no vote that’s above 49%.

Many coun­ties have yet to report fresh num­bers for today. A lit­tle lat­er on, when we’ve got more infor­ma­tion, I’ll post anoth­er update on how we’re doing.