Last night at the NO on I‑1125 party, I was asked several times for a guesstimate of what the final spread on I‑1125 would be. Though I don’t much care for making predictions, I replied that I thought it was conceivable that we might reach 53% no by the time the election was certified.
Now, it’s possible that we won’t quite cross the 53% threshold. But I think we just might, based on a couple of factors: the strong no vote in King County and the weak yes vote in many eastern Washington counties.
NPI’s expectation is that the no vote is going to get stronger pretty much everywhere, even in King County, where it’s already pretty high.
A little earlier this afternoon, Adams County became the first county to switch sides and turn against I‑1125 after posting updated returns. Adams went from 50.21% yes to 50.16% no in less than twenty-four hours.
Now, that’s not a huge swing, and Adams is a small county, but if that’s evidence of a bigger trend across eastern Washington (as our team thinks it is), then that could mean we’re going to end up doing better than we thought we were.
Other counties in eastern Washington on the verge of defecting to the NO column include Lincoln, Columbia, and Spokane.
In western Washington, it’s possible that Pierce and Grays Harbor could flip to the NO side. All of those counties currently have a no vote that’s above 49%.
Many counties have yet to report fresh numbers for today. A little later on, when we’ve got more information, I’ll post another update on how we’re doing.