Washington and Oregon will remain in the Democratic column in this year’s pivotally important presidential election, while Idaho will stay solidly Republican, a new tri-state survey that was recently conducted for the Northwest Progressive Institute indicates.
From April 13th to 16th, Civiqs interviewed 1,012 voters across the Pacific Northwest for NPI. Our poll finds that President Joe Biden holds a double digit lead over his predecessor Donald Trump in both Washington and Oregon, while Trump is ahead by an even larger margin in Idaho. In the Pacific Northwest as a whole, a majority of voters support Biden, and he is on track to win the popular vote across the three states that are home to the Cascade Range and the Columbia River watershed.
The key numbers:
Trump has a more than two-to-one lead in Idaho, while Biden’s lead in Oregon is a stout twenty points. In Washington, Biden’s lead in this survey is fifteen points. His standing here dovetails neatly with the numbers from our last statewide poll of Washington in February, conducted by another one of our pollsters, Public Policy Polling.
None of these findings are at all surprising, especially considering that Washington/Oregon and Idaho have been on opposite sides of presidential politics for decades.
Still, it is useful to have this data.
This is NPI’s very first tri-state poll, a project we’re thrilled to have brought to fruition, and it’s great to have numbers from each of the states within our area of focus.
Washington and Oregon last voted for a Republican for President in 1984 when Ronald Reagan was seeking a second term; Idaho last voted for a Democrat for President in 1964 when Lyndon Baines Johnson was seeking to be retained by voters for a full term. Washington and Oregon have voted together in every presidential election since 1968, when Washington voters gave the state’s nine Electoral College votes to Hubert Humphrey and Oregon voters gave their six Electoral College votes to Richard Nixon. (Washington showed better judgment than its neighbors in that important election!)
Washington and Oregon’s Democratic strength comes primarily from the Interstate 5 corridor. Beginning with the Canadian border to the north and concluding at the southern edge of the Willamette Valley, most of the population centers I‑5 passes through are very Democratic, including the cities of Bellingham, Everett, Seattle, Tacoma, Olympia, Vancouver, Portland, Salem, and Eugene (and their suburbs).
Idaho has blue urban areas too — its capital and largest city of Boise is a blue oasis in a very red state — but Boise’s suburbs aren’t as progressive, and the Boise area doesn’t have the electoral muscle that the I‑5 corridor has in Washington and Oregon.
In 2020, the Biden/Harris ticket received 57.97% of the vote in Washington, 56.45% in Oregon, and 33.09% in Idaho. The Trump/Pence ticket received 38.77% of the vote in Washington, 40.37% in Oregon, and 63.89% in Idaho. Our survey suggests that the 2024 results may not be very different. No part of our region has been a presidential battleground for a very long time, and that will almost surely remain the case in 2024.
Here is the exact text of the question we asked and the answers we received:
QUESTION: If the November general election were being held today, who would you vote for to be President of the United States?
ANSWERS FROM THE ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SAMPLE:
- Joe Biden: 51%
- Donald Trump: 40%
- Not sure: 9%
ANSWERS FROM WASHINGTON STATE RESPONDENTS:
- Joe Biden: 54%
- Donald Trump: 39%
- Not sure: 7%
ANSWERS FROM OREGON RESPONDENTS:
- Joe Biden: 54%
- Donald Trump: 34%
- Not sure: 11%
ANSWERS FROM IDAHO RESPONDENTS:
- Joe Biden: 28%
- Donald Trump: 63%
- Not sure: 9%
Our poll of 1,012 likely voters was in the field from April 13th-16th, 2024.
The survey was conducted entirely online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel, and it has a margin of error of ± 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. 598 of the respondents interviewed were from Washington, 246 were from Oregon, and 168 were from Idaho. (Reflecting its larger population as measured in the last national census, Washington has as many electoral votes as Oregon and Idaho put together — twelve! — and that’s why the sample has more Washington voters in it.)
Tomorrow, we’ll share the findings from our generic congressional ballot question.
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