Most voters in the Pacific Northwest want Democratic representation in the U.S. House, NPI tri-state poll finds

A major­i­ty of vot­ers in the Pacif­ic North­west want Demo­c­ra­t­ic rep­re­sen­ta­tion in the next Con­gress and say they’d vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date from their con­gres­sion­al elec­tion if the 2024 pres­i­den­tial elec­tion were being held today, the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute’s lat­est pub­lic opin­ion research sur­vey has found. 

52% of 1,012 Wash­ing­ton, Ore­gon, and Ida­ho vot­ers sur­veyed by Civiqs ear­li­er this month for NPI said they’d vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date in their con­gres­sion­al dis­trict if the elec­tion were being held now, while 40% said they’d vote for the Repub­li­can can­di­date. 8% were not sure. 

Respon­dents in Ore­gon were the most enthu­si­as­tic about vot­ing Demo­c­ra­t­ic — 57% of them said they’d vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date, while just 34% said they’d pick the Repub­li­can. Respon­dents in Ida­ho were the least enthu­si­as­tic, with 27% say­ing they’d vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date and 64% say­ing they’d vote for the Republican. 

Respon­dents in his­tor­i­cal­ly blue Wash­ing­ton State also not sur­pris­ing­ly expressed a pref­er­ence for Democ­rats. 54% of them said they’d vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date, while 38% said they’d vote for the Repub­li­can candidate. 

Crit­i­cal­ly, Democ­rats have an advan­tage with sub­ur­ban vot­ers. Our sur­vey found that 57% of sub­ur­ban vot­ers in the three states would vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date from their dis­trict. 38% would vote for the Repub­li­can can­di­date. A mere 5% were not sure. The par­ty’s advan­tage in the sub­urbs is, inter­est­ing­ly, greater than Repub­li­cans’ advan­tage in rur­al com­mu­ni­ties. 40% of rur­al vot­ers say they’d vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date and 53% say they’d vote for the Repub­li­can can­di­date. 8% are not sure. 

This is an intrigu­ing find­ing, because many pun­dits con­sid­er pre­dom­i­nant­ly rur­al dis­tricts to be unwinnable for Democ­rats. But the par­ty has proved it can break through with the right can­di­dates. Con­sid­er Mary Pel­to­la’s two con­sec­u­tive vic­to­ries in Alas­ka, or Marie Glue­senkamp Perez’s upset win in 2022 (which our polling sug­gest­ed was a real pos­si­bil­i­ty, even though many nation­al pun­dits were stunned).

The Pacif­ic North­west has eigh­teen con­gres­sion­al dis­tricts: ten in Wash­ing­ton, six in Ore­gon, and two in Ida­ho. Eight of the ten Wash­ing­ton dis­tricts are cur­rent­ly held by Democ­rats fol­low­ing Glue­senkamp Perez’s elec­tion to the House. In Ore­gon, four of the six seats are cur­rent­ly held by Democ­rats after Repub­li­can Lori Chavez-DeRe­mer’s vic­to­ry. Repub­li­cans have held both of Ida­ho’s seats since the 2010 midterms. 

Democ­rats would like to pick up Chavez-DeRe­mer’s seat in Ore­gon’s 5th and keep Wash­ing­ton’s 3rd, 6th, and 8th Demo­c­ra­t­ic. Repub­li­cans con­sid­er Wash­ing­ton’s 3rd their top pick­up oppor­tu­ni­ty in the region. They’d like to expand the map and go after Ore­gon’s 4th and 6th Dis­tricts as well, but that may not be fea­si­ble this cycle. 

In Wash­ing­ton’s 5th, which used to be rep­re­sent­ed by Speak­er Tom Foley, Cathy McMor­ris Rodgers is retir­ing, cre­at­ing an open seat. A large field of Repub­li­cans is run­ning, which cre­ates an open­ing for Democ­rats. Whether they can cap­i­tal­ize remains to be seen. The par­ty has­n’t yet unit­ed behind one can­di­date like it did with Glue­senkamp Perez in 2022, and the dis­trict is much more Repub­li­can than Wash­ing­ton’s 3rd. But any­one who thinks a Demo­c­ra­t­ic pick­up of WA-05 is impos­si­ble should remem­ber the mantra it’s often con­sid­ered impos­si­ble until it’s done.

Here is the exact text of the ques­tion we asked and the answers we received: 

QUESTION: If the elec­tion for the Unit­ed States House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives were being held today, would you vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic or Repub­li­can can­di­date from your district?

ANSWERS FROM THE ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SAMPLE:

• Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date: 52%
• Repub­li­can can­di­date: 40%
• Not sure: 8%

ANSWERS FROM WASHINGTON STATE RESPONDENTS:

• Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date: 54%
• Repub­li­can can­di­date: 39%
• Not sure: 7%

ANSWERS FROM OREGON RESPONDENTS:

• Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date: 57%
• Repub­li­can can­di­date: 34%
• Not sure: 9%

ANSWERS FROM IDAHO RESPONDENTS:

• Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date: 27%
• Repub­li­can can­di­date: 64%
• Not sure: 9%

Our poll of 1,012 like­ly vot­ers was in the field from April 13th-16th, 2024. 

The sur­vey was con­duct­ed entire­ly online, among select­ed mem­bers of the Civiqs research pan­el, and it has a mar­gin of error of ± 3.4% at the 95% con­fi­dence lev­el. 598 of the respon­dents inter­viewed were from Wash­ing­ton, 246 were from Ore­gon, and 168 were from Ida­ho. (Reflect­ing its larg­er pop­u­la­tion as mea­sured in the last nation­al cen­sus, Wash­ing­ton has as many elec­toral votes as Ore­gon and Ida­ho put togeth­er — twelve! — and that’s why the sam­ple has more Wash­ing­ton vot­ers in it.)

The next few weeks will bring impor­tant devel­op­ments in the PNW’s con­gres­sion­al races. Fil­ing Week in Wash­ing­ton State will be from May 6th — 10th, and after that, the ten con­gres­sion­al fields in Wash­ing­ton State will be set. 

A cou­ple weeks lat­er, vot­ers in Ore­gon and Ida­ho will pick Demo­c­ra­t­ic and Repub­li­can nom­i­nees for the U.S. House, in their May 21st pri­maries. Wash­ing­ton does­n’t have a real pri­ma­ry, so Ever­green State vot­ers don’t get the oppor­tu­ni­ty to pick nominees. 

Instead, in the Top Two elec­tion on August 6th, vot­ers in Wash­ing­ton will choose two can­di­dates to appear on the Novem­ber gen­er­al elec­tion bal­lot in every con­gres­sion­al dis­trict. Those two can­di­dates could be from dif­fer­ent par­ties, but they could also be from the same par­ty… as was the case in Wash­ing­ton’s 10th in 2020, when Democ­rats Mar­i­lyn Strick­land and Beth Doglio com­pet­ed in the gen­er­al election. 

We’ll con­tin­ue to bring you cov­er­age of this year’s con­gres­sion­al races through­out the remain­der of the cycle here on The Cas­ca­dia Advocate.