Elections

Evergreen State Democrats continue to have a double-digit advantage on generic congressional ballot, NPI poll finds

A major­i­ty of Wash­ing­ton vot­ers are still plan­ning on vot­ing for Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­dates in this year’s elec­tion for the Unit­ed States House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives, the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute’s most recent sur­vey of the Ever­green State elec­torate has found.

51% of 615 like­ly vot­ers sur­veyed last week by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling (PPP) for NPI said they’d vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date if con­gres­sion­al elec­tions were being held now, while 40% said they’d vote for the Repub­li­can can­di­date. 9% were not sure. Those num­bers are sim­i­lar to what we found in Feb­ru­ary, when 52% said they’d vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date and 39% said they’d vote for the Repub­li­can candidate.

They’re also sim­i­lar to the Wash­ing­ton State results from our April 2024 tri-state poll con­duct­ed by Civiqs, which includ­ed vot­ers from Ore­gon and Ida­ho along with vot­ers from Wash­ing­ton. In that sur­vey, 54% of the Ever­green State sub­sam­ple favored Democ­rats and 39% favored Repub­li­cans, while 7% were not sure.

Wash­ing­ton has ten seats in the Unit­ed States House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives. Eight of those are cur­rent­ly held by Democ­rats and two by Repub­li­cans, reflect­ing the state’s Demo­c­ra­t­ic lean. Wash­ing­ton present­ly has one tossup dis­trict (the 3rd, rep­re­sent­ed by Marie Glue­senkamp Perez), one Demo­c­ra­t­ic lean­ing bat­tle­ground dis­trict (the 8th, rep­re­sent­ed by Dr. Kim Schri­er), six solid­ly Demo­c­ra­t­ic dis­tricts, and two solid­ly Repub­li­can districts. 

Hav­ing cap­tured the 8th in 2018 and recap­tured the 3rd in 2022, Democ­rats now rep­re­sent all the parts of Wash­ing­ton that are west of the Cas­cades in Con­gress, as well as a few chunks of Cen­tral Wash­ing­ton (the 8th is a cross-Cas­cades dis­trict). Repub­li­cans rep­re­sent the remain­der of Cen­tral Wash­ing­ton plus East­ern Washington. 

One of those Repub­li­cans, Cathy McMor­ris Rodgers, is retir­ing. But the dis­trict isn’t con­sid­ered a top pick­up oppor­tu­ni­ty for Democ­rats, owing to its polit­i­cal makeup.

The par­ty’s focus is on play­ing defense: reelect­ing its incum­bents (Suzan Del­Bene, Rick Larsen, Glue­senkamp Perez, Prami­la Jaya­pal, Schri­er, Adam Smith, and Mar­i­lyn Strick­land) plus keep­ing WA-06 blue. That’s the dis­trict cur­rent­ly rep­re­sent­ed by Derek Kilmer, who has decid­ed to retire after hav­ing served in the House for over a decade. 

Glue­senkamp Perez is being chal­lenged by sev­er­al Repub­li­cans, includ­ing the man she defeat­ed in 2022: odi­ous ultra MAGA extrem­ist Joe Kent. The odds of a rematch seem high, and the out­come is like­ly to be close, as it was two years ago. Biden may not car­ry the 3rd, and Glue­senkamp Perez will accord­ing­ly need inde­pen­dents and a few Repub­li­cans to cross over to be able to earn a sec­ond term. 

Else­where in West­ern Wash­ing­ton, the par­ty seems to be in real­ly good shape, as these per­cent­ages indi­cate. With a big field of Repub­li­can can­di­dates com­pet­ing to replace McMor­ris Rodgers in the 5th, and with Glue­senkamp Perez now the state’s most vul­ner­a­ble Demo­c­ra­t­ic incum­bent, there’s less heat on front­line Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Kim Schri­er, who is seek­ing a fourth term in the 8th. Sch beat­en three dif­fer­ent Repub­li­cans in the last six years: Dino Rossi, Jensen, and Matt Larkin. This year, she’ll prob­a­bly face Car­men Goers in the gen­er­al elec­tion. Goers was the only Repub­li­can to file against Schri­er. She has­n’t raised much mon­ey or run a very vis­i­ble cam­paign so far. 

Here is the exact text of the ques­tion we asked and the answers we received: 

QUESTION: If the elec­tion for the Unit­ed States House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives were being held today, would you vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic or Repub­li­can can­di­date from your district?

ANSWERS:

  • Would vote for the Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date: 51% (-1% since February)
  • Would vote for the Repub­li­can can­di­date: 40% (+1% since February)
  • Not sure: 9% (no change since February)

Our sur­vey of 615 like­ly 2024 Wash­ing­ton State vot­ers was in the field from Wednes­day, May 15th through Thurs­day, May 16th, 2024.

The poll uti­lizes a blend­ed method­ol­o­gy, with auto­mat­ed phone calls to land­lines (45%) and online answers from respon­dents recruit­ed by text (55%).

It was con­duct­ed by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling (PPP) for the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute, and has a mar­gin of error of +/- 4.0% at the 95% con­fi­dence interval.

NPI and PPP have worked togeth­er for a decade and have a track record of excel­lence, as detailed in this 2022 elec­toral polling recap and this 2020 one.

Interested in diving into the crosstabs with us?

If you’re inter­est­ed in the crosstabs of our con­gres­sion­al polling — past and present — we invite you to sub­scribe to The Chi­nook Bea­con, NPI’s newest pub­li­ca­tion and The Cas­ca­dia Advo­cate’s youngest sib­ling. The Bea­con, which just launched last week, is a newslet­ter avail­able exclu­sive­ly to pay­ing sub­scribers that pro­vides deep insights from our research as well as com­men­tary on elec­toral and polit­i­cal trends. Sub­scrip­tions cost $20/month or $240/year, and you can also become a Found­ing Mem­ber for $600/year.

We expect to pub­lish new edi­tions of The Bea­con every oth­er week through Novem­ber. After that, the pub­li­ca­tion sched­ule will like­ly go to twice a month.

Andrew Villeneuve

Andrew Villeneuve is the founder and executive director of the Northwest Progressive Institute, as well as the founder of NPI's sibling, the Northwest Progressive Foundation. He has worked to advance progressive causes for over two decades as a strategist, speaker, author, and organizer. Andrew is also a cybersecurity expert, a veteran facilitator, a delegate to the Washington State Democratic Central Committee, and a member of the Climate Reality Leadership Corps.

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