Two weeks ago, our team at NPI released the first findings from our July 2021 Top Two survey of the Seattle electorate, indicating that majorities of voters weren’t sure who they were voting for in most of this year’s citywide races.
With Final GOTV (get out the vote) weekend beginning today, and Election Night now a hundred hours away, it seems like a good time to circle back and take one final look at the electoral landscape before the last sprint to the finish.
Here’s a recap of our findings:
Our poll finds Bruce Harrell and Lorena González leading in the race for mayor, with Colleen Echohawk right behind González. Though a plurality of voters are undecided, Harrell appears to have a strong enough base of support to clinch one of the top two spots. The second spot will most likely go to either González or Echohawk. Jessyn Farrell and Andrew Grant Houston were the two other candidates who stood apart from the others in the fifteen strong field in our polling, but they’re not as close to González as Echohawk is.
Poll finding: The top contenders
32% are not sure/undecided.
Read this post to see the exact questions we asked and the complete findings.
Our poll finds a three way race for City Attorney, with incumbent Pete Holmes in danger of being eliminated in the Top Two election. Holmes received 16% in our survey, while challengers Ann Davison and Nicole Thomas-Kennedy each received 14%. The general election could be a matchup between any two of these candidates. Since the release of our poll finding, Holmes has begun to campaign more aggressively, touting his endorsements and vocally criticizing his opponents, particularly Davison, who joined the Republican Party last year.
Poll finding
53% are not sure/undecided.
Read this post to see the exact questions we asked and the complete findings.
Our poll finds that Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda, the sponsor of Seattle’s JumpStart revenue recovery plan, is on track for reelection. Although only 28% of voters backed Mosqueda in the survey and 55% said they were undecided, none of Mosqueda’s ten opponents appears to be getting any traction with voters. Mosqueda’s most likely opponent as of when our survey returned from the field was Kate Martin, best known for the unsuccessful “Park My Viaduct” campaign that sought to turn the remnants of the Alaskan Way Viaduct into a park.
Poll finding: The top contenders
55% are not sure/undecided.
Read this post to see the exact questions we asked and the complete findings.
Our poll finds that the leading candidate for the open seat being vacated by Lorena González (who is a mayoral hopeful) is Nikkita Oliver. Oliver has built an impressive campaign that has resonated among many segments of the electorate, and was the best performing candidate in our survey except for Mosqueda, who is an incumbent. Oliver’s most likely opponent is Sara Nelson, the cofounder of Fremont Brewing, but Brianna Thomas, Gonzalez’s chief of staff, remains in contention. All three have unsuccessfully run for office in Seattle before: Oliver for mayor, and Nelson and Thomas for council. One of them will win.
Poll finding: The top contenders
50% are not sure/undecided.
Read this post to see the exact questions we asked and the complete findings.
Our poll finds that homelessness is the top issue that voters most want the next Mayor of Seattle to address. A related concern, attainable housing, was also cited by many voters as a top issue. Aside from tackling homelessness and housing, voters want public safety and police reform to be a priority for the next mayor. Smaller numbers of respondents cited other issues, like expanding transit, taking action to address climate damage, and improving education.
Poll finding: The top issues
Read this post to see the exact questions we asked and the complete findings.
A coalition that is hoping to alter Seattle’s city charter to add new directives regarding homelessness successfully qualified their measure to the general election ballot this week. Another coalition that has formed in opposition says that the measure, Charter Amendment 29, will simply make housing attainability even worse. However, at least right now, most voters we surveyed are inclined to vote for the amendment, including voters of color and young voters.
Poll finding: Charter Amendment 29
Read this post to see the exact questions we asked and the complete findings.
And read this post for additional crosstabs and analysis.
Our survey was in the field through Monday, July 12th, through Thursday, July 15th. 617 likely August 2021 Seattle voters took the survey, with all participating online. The poll was conducted by Change Research for NPI, and has a modeled margin of error of 4.3% at the 95% confidence interval.
We’d be honored to have you stop by the Cascadia Advocate anytime on Election Night. We’ll be analyzing the early returns beginning a little after 8 PM.
A week from today at this juncture, we should have four days’ worth of numbers from elections officials (Tuesday night, Wednesday afternoon, Thursday afternoon, Friday afternoon) and it should be pretty apparent in all but the tightest races who will be moving on to the general election.
If you haven’t voted yet, it’s time to sit down and get it done — it’s extremely important that you vote! Ballot drop boxes will be open until 8 PM on Tuesday, August 3rd, and you can also return your ballot through the United States Postal Service, no stamp required. Don’t delay; vote today! The sooner you vote, the sooner you can start checking on family and friends to see if they have voted.
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