A proposed change to Seattle’s plan of government that would add new directives regarding the city’s obligations for addressing homelessness has qualified for the November ballot, King County Elections announced today.
The county began checking the validity of 66,340 signatures on petitions submitted by the campaign in favor of Charter Amendment 29 (which calls itself Compassion Seattle) on Thursday, July 15th, at 9 AM.
The county says 65,393 signatures were reviewed.
34,714 were accepted and 30,679 were challenged.
The minimum number of signatures required to qualify was 33,060.
With the qualification threshold cleared, Charter Amendment 29 is now officially on the ballot. Seattle voters will decide its fate this November.
The amendment — which many people already have strong feelings about — is enthusiastically supported by organizations like the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and the Downtown Seattle Association. It is staunchly opposed by organizations like Real Change and the American Civil Liberties Union.
In our recent survey of Seattle’s Top Two electorate, we asked voters how they would vote on Charter Amendment 29 if the geneal election were happening now. 61% said they would support the measure, 23% said they would oppose it, and 16% were not sure. (Read this post for reaction to the finding from Compassion Seattle and the opposition campaign, which calls itself House Our Neighbors.)
With the measure officially on the ballot, let’s dive a little deeper into the numbers to understand where the measure’s support is coming from.
First, let’s take a look at the base numbers again.
QUESTION: This November, voters in Seattle may be asked to vote on a city charter amendment concerning actions to address homelessness and keep areas clear of encampments. The official description of the charter amendment is as follows: This measure would require the City to provide 2,000 housing units within one year; and, until 2028: waive land use regulations for units during declared emergencies; adopt homelessness policies; fund behavioral health and addiction treatment; dedicate minimum 12% of annual general fund revenue to homelessness and human services without affecting certain parks funding; implement diversion programs for law violations connected to poverty or behavioral health; and balance keeping public spaces clear of encampments with avoiding harm to individuals. If the autumn general election were being held now, would you vote yes to pass this charter amendment, or no to reject it?
ANSWERS:
- Would vote yes to pass the charter amendment: 61%
- Would vote no to reject the charter amendment: 23%
- Not sure: 16%
Now, let’s look at how the numbers break down by age:
- Would vote yes to pass the charter amendment: 61%
- Ages eighteen to thirty-four: 64%
- Ages thirty-five to forty-nine: 55%
- Ages fifty to sixty-four: 63%
- Ages sixty-five and older: 61%
- Would vote no to reject the charter amendment: 23%
- Ages eighteen to thirty-four: 26%
- Ages thirty-five to forty-nine: 23%
- Ages fifty to sixty-four: 28%
- Ages sixty-five and older: 17%
- Not sure: 16%
- Ages eighteen to thirty-four: 9%
- Ages thirty-five to forty-nine: 22%
- Ages fifty to sixty-four: 9%
- Ages sixty-five and older: 22%
Unlike in the mayoral race, where we saw a generational divide with respect to voters’ preferences in the crowded fifteen candidate field, initial support for Charter Amendment 29 is reasonably strong across age groups.
In fact, younger voters are the most enthusiastic age group. That helps explain why the measure is at 61% support overall out of the gate.
Voters of color, meanwhile, are more supportive than just about any other group. 70% of respondents identifying as Black, Native American, Latino, Hispanic, Pacific Islander, and Asian said they would vote yes to pass the charter amendment. 20% said they’d vote to reject and 9% were not sure. (White voters are a little less enthusiastic: 59% are supportive, 24% are opposed, 17% are not sure.)
Geographically, support for CA 29 seems to be strongest in neighborhoods like Ballard, Greenwood, Bitter Lake, Northgate, Capitol Hill, the Central District, Madison Park, and Madrona. Here is the breakdown on the amendment’s polling by “likely” city council district (data is based on respondents’ zip codes):
- Would vote yes to pass the charter amendment: 61%
- Likely district one: 58%
- Likely district two: 56%
- Likely district three: 62%
- Likely district four: 57%
- Likely district five: 64%
- Likely district six: 68%
- Likely district seven: 55%
- Would vote no to reject the charter amendment: 23%
- Likely district one: 28%
- Likely district two: 31%
- Likely district three: 24%
- Likely district four: 24%
- Likely district five: 16%
- Likely district six: 14%
- Likely district seven: 28%
- Not sure: 16%
- Likely district one: 14%
- Likely district two: 13%
- Likely district three: 15%
- Likely district four: 20%
- Likely district five: 19%
- Likely district six: 19%
- Likely district seven: 17%
Our poll of 617 likely August 2021 Seattle voters was in the field through Monday, July 12th, through Thursday, July 15th. All respondents participated online. The poll was conducted by Change Research for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a modeled margin of error of 4.3% at the 95% confidence interval.
NPI does not yet have a position on Seattle Charter Amendment 29 and was not involved in qualifying the measure to the ballot. While NPI does not take sides in candidate elections, we usually do take positions on ballot measures. We anticipate taking a position on Charter Amendment 29 this autumn.
It isn’t uncommon for ballot measures to start out with decent-sized leads. Proponents of a ballot measure, whether it be an initiative or a charter amendment like this, usually only invest in campaigns when polling shows that the ballot title does well with voters. It’s logical: Why risk money on a campaign that doesn’t have very good odds? Compassion Seattle’s objective this fall will be to hang on to its lead. The coalition can afford to lose some support and still win.
House Our Neighbors, meanwhile, will be working to get the percentage of voters who support Charter Amendment 29 below fifty. The key to victory for the opposition coalition will be mounting credible arguments against the amendment that resonate with voters. As the old political adage goes, when in doubt, vote no. Seattle voters have a history of being discerning and doing their research. This is an electorate that listens for the response when they hear a charge or claim.
With Charter Amendment 29 now officially on the ballot and homelessness far and away the top issue on Emerald City voters’ minds, the stage seems set for a general election more focused on housing than any other in recent memory.
One Ping
[…] this month, King County Elections certified that a charter amendment proposed by a coalition hop…, though barely. Within days of that announcement, the Seattle City Council placed the […]