Kyrsten Sinema triumphs over Martha McSally: Democrats pick up a U.S. Senate seat

Big news out of Ari­zona tonight: The Asso­ci­at­ed Press has called the Grand Canyon State’s U.S. Sen­ate race for Demo­c­ra­t­ic con­tender Kyrsten Sine­ma, and Repub­li­can Martha McSal­ly has con­ced­ed the race in a con­grat­u­la­to­ry tweet.

Sine­ma’s vic­to­ry is a big deal for Democ­rats, because it dou­bles the num­ber of Sen­ate pick­ups for the par­ty from one to two, and off­sets major loss­es elsewhere.

It also rep­re­sents a break­through for the par­ty in the moun­tain­ous south­west. Democ­rats have swung Neva­da, Col­orado, and New Mex­i­co into their col­umn in recent cycles, but Ari­zona has con­tin­ued to vote Repub­li­can in statewide races.

Until now, that is.

Sine­ma will become Ari­zon­a’s first female sen­a­tor and its first Demo­c­ra­t­ic sen­a­tor in decades. The last Demo­c­rat to rep­re­sent Ari­zona in the U.S. Sen­ate, Den­nis DeConci­ni, retired in 1994. DeConci­ni was replaced by Repub­li­can Jon Kyl.

Democ­rats’ hopes of cap­tur­ing a Sen­ate major­i­ty in the midterms depend­ed on sav­ing all of its endan­gered incum­bents plus pick­ing up seats.

The par­ty was­n’t able to accom­plish the for­mer, but with Jacky Rosen’s vic­to­ry in Neva­da and Sine­ma’s vic­to­ry in Ari­zona, it is accom­plish­ing the former.

To recap, the Sen­ate Democ­rats lost three mem­bers in last week’s midterms: Claire McCaskill, Hei­di Heitkamp, and Joe Don­nel­ly. All of them rep­re­sent Mid­west­ern states that vot­ed for Trump by large num­bers in 2016. The Repub­li­cans tar­get­ed each for defeat, and Trump made their ouster his top pri­or­i­ty in the 2018 midterms.

Trump also tried to top­ple Mon­tana’s Jon Tester, but Tester — ini­tial­ly elect­ed to the Sen­ate in 2006 in the first blue wave of the cen­tu­ry — was able to sur­vive despite vot­ing against Brett Kavanaugh. So was West Vir­gini­a’s Joe Manchin, the only Demo­c­ra­t­ic sen­a­tor to vote in favor of Kavanaugh­’s confirmation.

The out­come of Flori­da’s U.S. Sen­ate race, mean­while, remains unknown. Demo­c­ra­t­ic incum­bent Bill Nel­son trails Rick Scott by a very small mar­gin and a recount is under­way. Scott is suing to halt the recount from proceeding.

Should Nel­son lose, Repub­li­cans will have gained four seats while los­ing two. Should Nel­son win, Repub­li­cans will have gained three seats while los­ing two.

As much as it hurts for Democ­rats to lose any U.S. Sen­ate seats, these midterms could have been so much worse for the party.

Tester and Manch­in’s vic­to­ries, cou­pled with Rosen and Sine­ma’s vic­to­ries, make the 2020 U.S. Sen­ate map much, much bet­ter for Democ­rats. With­out those four wins, Democ­rats would have been left in a ter­ri­ble posi­tion going into the next cycle.

Democ­rats were defend­ing a pletho­ra of seats in deep red states this cycle, while Repub­li­cans were defend­ing just one Sen­ate seat in a state that vot­ed for Hillary Clin­ton. Because Sen­ate terms are for six years and because there are only one hun­dred Sen­ate posi­tions, the impli­ca­tions of every win or loss are magnified.