Initiative to lower class sizes in Washington now passing by a slim margin

Some hap­py news to report tonight: Ini­tia­tive 1351, which man­dates low­er class sizes in Wash­ing­ton’s pri­ma­ry and sec­ondary schools, is final­ly pass­ing after hav­ing trailed on Elec­tion Night and in yes­ter­day’s count.

After King Coun­ty fin­ished tab­u­lat­ing and report­ing a fresh batch of bal­lots (its sec­ond count of the day), I‑1351 went from los­ing to win­ning. What for­tu­itous tim­ing! Just a few hours ago, Tim Eyman had sent out an email to the media crow­ing about the ini­tia­tive being down. But now it’s prevailing!

Here’s where things stand now:

Yes on I‑1351: 810,243 votes (50.14%)
No on I‑1351: 805,583 votes (49.86%)

This means the Yes side has a fair­ly slim 4,660 vote lead.

Spokane Coun­ty has flipped into the Yes col­umn, a day after Sno­homish Coun­ty flipped to No. Sno­homish is still No, but not by much.

What accounts for the change? In a few words, late bal­lots from more pop­u­lous coun­ties. The more sparse­ly pop­u­lat­ed rur­al coun­ties are vot­ing I‑1351 down by sig­nif­i­cant mar­gins. For the most part, those coun­ties have few bal­lots left on hand to process, so their influ­ence on the result is waning.

The pop­u­lous coun­ties, on the oth­er hand, still have plen­ty of bal­lots to tab­u­late. King Coun­ty alone has 132,042 bal­lots still to work through. Pierce Coun­ty has 21,000; Sno­homish has 78,000, and Spokane has 26,000.

If the trends hold, we project a win for the Yes on I‑1351 coali­tion. It won’t be a land­slide vic­to­ry, but it will be a vic­to­ry nonetheless.

Coun­ties where I‑1351 is win­ning include King and San Juan (reli­able Demo­c­ra­t­ic strong­holds), along with Jef­fer­son, Kit­sap, Pierce, Spokane, What­com, Grays Har­bor, and.… wait for it… Asotin! It’s very unusu­al to see King and Pierce in an alliance that does not include Sno­homish Coun­ty, but, there you have it.

Sno­homish and Mason are bare­ly in the No col­umn, and Sno­homish might just flip back before the elec­tion is cer­ti­fied. We’ll have to see.

Oth­er coun­ties that are some­what close but still No are Skag­it and Thurston.