Initiative 522 gets another boost as Snohomish and Clallam join the Yes column

If you’re a sup­port­er of Ini­tia­tive 522 like we are, you’ll be glad to know that Yes on I‑522’s share of the vote is still head­ed upwards on the eve of the fifth day of bal­lot count­ing, and now stands at 47.85%. That’s an improve­ment of more than two full per­cent­age points since Elec­tion Night, which is cool to see.

In addi­tion, two more coun­ties have joined the Yes camp: Clal­lam and Sno­homish. Clal­lam is now back­ing the ini­tia­tive, 50.09% to 49.91%. On Elec­tion Night, it was reject­ing I‑522, 52.5% to 47.5%. The sto­ry in Sno­homish is sim­i­lar. Just three days ago it was against I‑522, but now it’s in the Yes column.

50.7% vot­ers in Sno­homish are for I‑522 as of the lat­est tal­ly. 49.3% are opposed. On Elec­tion Night, 51.7% were opposed and 48.3% were for.

Two more coun­ties may poten­tial­ly flip before the elec­tion is cer­ti­fied: Kit­sap and Island. In Kit­sap Coun­ty, I‑522 is down by only one hun­dred and twen­ty-two votes; in Island Coun­ty, the ini­tia­tive is behind by only two hun­dred and five votes.

Despite these gains, we still antic­i­pate that I‑522 will be defeat­ed, because it start­ed out too far behind on Elec­tion Night. The num­ber of out­stand­ing bal­lots is drop­ping, which means there will be few­er and few­er bal­lots tab­u­lat­ed and added to the tal­ly in the days ahead. There are 147,688 bal­lots wait­ing to be processed as of tonight, accord­ing to the Sec­re­tary of State. Most of those are in King, Sno­homish, and Pierce coun­ties (the three most populous).

I‑522 present­ly trails by 68,135 votes. To make up that gap, Yes on I‑522 would need to cap­ture more than 73% of the remain­ing 147,688 bal­lots. We think that is unlike­ly to occur. The mar­gin will con­tin­ue to tight­en, but when the elec­tion is cer­ti­fied, I‑522 will be defeat­ed, unfor­tu­nate­ly. It prob­a­bly would have passed hand­i­ly had it been on the bal­lot last year.