Secretary of State contest very close: Democrat Kathleen Drew trails, but could reclaim lead by end of the week

Over the last few days, I’ve heard sev­er­al peo­ple pre­dict that Wash­ing­ton’s 2012 guber­na­to­r­i­al race would like­ly be as tight as the 2004 con­test between Chris Gre­goire and Dino Rossi, which dragged on for weeks as bal­lots were count­ed and recount­ed. It does­n’t look like that will be the case; Jay Inslee has a lead of 50,209 votes as of this morn­ing, and we think his lead is only going to grow larger.

But there is anoth­er statewide race that’s very close.

Demo­c­rat Kath­leen Drew and Repub­li­can Kim Wyman are each vying to suc­ceed Sam Reed as Sec­re­tary of State (the state’s chief elec­tions offi­cer) and they each have rough­ly half of the vote as of this morn­ing. Wyman took the lead mid­way through the evening last night and has­n’t relin­quished it, but she does­n’t have much of an edge: Drew is only 14,243 votes behind her.

If you look at the coun­ty-by-coun­ty break­down, you can see that Drew is win­ning in some cru­cial swing coun­ties, espe­cial­ly Sno­homish and What­com — but also Jef­fer­son, Grays Har­bor, and Pacif­ic. She’s not win­ning by much in any of those places, but she is ahead, and that mat­ters a great deal… because in vote-rich King Coun­ty, she’s crush­ing Wyman.

As reg­u­lar read­ers of The Cas­ca­dia Advo­cate know, I often say that statewide races are not won or lost in King Coun­ty. They are decid­ed in the all-impor­tant swing coun­ties, where much of the state’s pop­u­la­tion resides.

Some­times, the swing coun­ties are uni­form­ly aligned against King Coun­ty, and when that hap­pens, King Coun­ty gets out­vot­ed. But when the swing coun­ties are divid­ed, as is the case in this race, King Coun­ty often gets to decide who wins.

We saw this dynam­ic at work four years ago in the race for Com­mis­sion­er of Pub­lic Lands. Demo­c­rat Peter Gold­mark eked out a vic­to­ry over Repub­li­can Doug Suther­land pri­mar­i­ly by win­ning Sno­homish, Jef­fer­son, and Whatcom.

Gold­mark lost many of the same swing coun­ties Drew is cur­rent­ly los­ing to Wyman. But it did­n’t mat­ter. He did well enough in north Puget Sound to allow King Coun­ty vot­ers to decide the race. Suther­land was kicked out of office and Gold­mark took over.

Gold­mark’s per­cent­age of the vote in 2008 in King Coun­ty close­ly cor­re­lates with Drew’s per­cent­age of the vote in King this year (61.88% vs. 61.71%).

If Drew can pro­tect her lead in the five swing coun­ties she’s cur­rent­ly got, King Coun­ty can put her over the top.

Wyman, of course, can’t be count­ed out. She is doing well in her home coun­ty of Thurston, and she has decent-sized leads in impor­tant swing coun­ties like Pierce and Spokane. She also has com­mand­ing leads through­out east­ern Wash­ing­ton. But in oth­er swing coun­ties, her lead is not so impressive.

In Kit­sap, she’s only sev­en hun­dred and sev­en­ty-nine votes ahead of Drew. In Cowlitz, she is only ahead by five hun­dred and fifty-sev­en votes.

Drew has com­pet­ed well enough out­side of King Coun­ty to win this race, Gold­mark-style. And we think she can do it.

If she pulls it off, she will become the first Demo­c­ra­t­ic Sec­re­tary of State in more than fifty years. And Democ­rats would hold all ten statewide posi­tions for which par­ty affil­i­a­tion is list­ed on the bal­lot: gov­er­nor, lieu­tenant gov­er­nor, sec­re­tary of state, trea­sur­er, audi­tor, lands com­mis­sion­er, insur­ance com­mis­sion­er, attor­ney gen­er­al, and the state’s ten U.S. Sen­ate seats.