Super Tuesday: How the states did fall

Last week, just for fun, I boldly predicted the outcome of the Democratic contest in each Super Tuesday state, relying not on polling or any other "scientific" data, but instinct. I drew on my observations, feelings, and inferences about what might happen. As it turned out, I came pretty close with my guesses.

Let's take a look at how I did:

I correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win California (with Barack not too far behind), New York, Arkansas, Tennessee, New Jersey, and American Samoa.

I also correctly predicted that Barack Obama would win Illinois, Utah, Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia, Missouri, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, and Kansas.

Finally, I correctly predicted Arizona would be a tossup - it went for Clinton, but it wasn't called immediately after the polls closed.

So which states did I get wrong?

• Minnesota. It went for Obama, not Clinton.
• Oklahoma. It went for Clinton, not Obama.
• Alaska. It went for Obama, not Clinton.
• Massachusetts. It went for Clinton, not Obama.
• Delaware. It went for Obama, not Clinton.

(Lastly, I should point out that we don't know what the outcome will be in New Mexico yet. I predicted the state would go for Clinton, and she has a slim lead there, but Obama could easily overtake her. There are 16,000 caucus ballots left to be counted and Clinton's lead is a mere 210 votes).

Here's the map I created showing my predictions.

Note that the figure paired with each state is the total number of pledged delegates at stake (Democratic delegates only). Clinton and Obama will divide the total number of delegates in each state between them depending on how much support they receive in the primaries or caucuses.



Now, here's the map showing the results from the Democratic contests:



Finally, I was correct in predicting that Obama and Clinton would run roughly even on Super Tuesday in the delegate score. They did.

So, without paying attention to any scientific data, I was able to accurately guess the results of at least sixteen of the twenty two states holding nominating events on Super Tuesday (plus American Samoa, which makes seventeen. We can't forget about American Samoa!) Nearly three fourths, or 75%, of my predictions turned out to be true. Maybe I should have placed bets in Las Vegas...