Super Tuesday: How the states will fall
Super Tuesday is now just a few days away, and though I have never cared for polling and the science of political forecasting, I do enjoy making predictions simply based on instinct, drawing from my observations, feelings, and inferences about what might happen. It's fun, I don't have to worry about my guesses being taken seriously, and talking about the possibilities is informative, because there's an opportunity to learn more about how the process works.
I'm only going to make predictions for the Democratic competition, because I really don't care who the Republican nominee is. They would all be equally awful from my perspective. Many Democrats have a secret preference, but I do not.
So with that out of the way...here we go!
If you're someone who prefers a visual, here is a map showing my predictions. Note that the figure paired with each state is the total number of pledged delegates at stake (Democratic delegates only). Clinton and Obama will divide the total number of delegates in each state between them depending on how much support they receive in the primaries or caucuses.
I think Clinton and Obama will run roughly even on Super Tuesday in the delegate score. Clinton may emerge somewhat ahead, and Barack Obama will try to close the gap by making a big showing in...yes...wait for it...Washington State!
A few wise political observers here, including the Seattle Post-Intelligencer's Joel Connelly, have pondered the possibility of Washington being relevant. Cynics laughed, but now it looks like the joke is on the cynics.
Unless Super Tuesday is a giant rout for either Obama or Clinton...and that doesn't seem likely at this point given the diverse group of Democrats voting or caucusing on February 5th...the spotlight will swing to the Evergreen State. We're next. And so, for a few short days, we'll be the center of attention.
Have predictions to share? Please leave a comment and tell me what you think.
I'm only going to make predictions for the Democratic competition, because I really don't care who the Republican nominee is. They would all be equally awful from my perspective. Many Democrats have a secret preference, but I do not.
So with that out of the way...here we go!
- Primary states that Hillary Clinton will win: California (but Barack won't be far behind!), New York, Arkansas, Tennessee, New Jersey, Delaware
- Primary states that Barack Obama will win: Massachusetts, Illinois, Utah, Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma
- Caucus states that Hillary Clinton will win: Minnesota, New Mexico, Alaska
- Caucus states that Barack Obama will win: Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, Kansas
- Primary state that could go either way: Arizona
If you're someone who prefers a visual, here is a map showing my predictions. Note that the figure paired with each state is the total number of pledged delegates at stake (Democratic delegates only). Clinton and Obama will divide the total number of delegates in each state between them depending on how much support they receive in the primaries or caucuses.
I think Clinton and Obama will run roughly even on Super Tuesday in the delegate score. Clinton may emerge somewhat ahead, and Barack Obama will try to close the gap by making a big showing in...yes...wait for it...Washington State!
A few wise political observers here, including the Seattle Post-Intelligencer's Joel Connelly, have pondered the possibility of Washington being relevant. Cynics laughed, but now it looks like the joke is on the cynics.
Unless Super Tuesday is a giant rout for either Obama or Clinton...and that doesn't seem likely at this point given the diverse group of Democrats voting or caucusing on February 5th...the spotlight will swing to the Evergreen State. We're next. And so, for a few short days, we'll be the center of attention.
Have predictions to share? Please leave a comment and tell me what you think.
# Posted by Jonathan : 2:37 PM
Comments:
I completely agree with you that guesses are a good way to stay informed, learn, and figure out how the process works. I haven't gotten that in depth as far as predicting which states will take who, but now you've got me thinking. I also took a more formal approach into mapping out my predictions by going in with some friends at http://www.fantazsports.com in a competition. I think it will force all of us to keep up on our political research, and stay fresh for the upcoming elections. Now I should figure out who my picks are :)
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