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Monday, October 11, 2010

Poll Watch: Third survey shows Suzan DelBene closing in on Dave Reichert

As longtime readers know, we're not fond of polls here at NPI, because we strongly believe that the only real poll happens on Election Day — or, in our case, throughout Election Month. Consequently, unlike other local media, we refrain from breathlessly posting about every new poll as if it were authoritative political gospel.

Occasionally, however, when multiple polls indicate a trend, we'll look at the contest from a "horse race" perspective. Such is the case today: A third poll in as many weeks has found that Suzan DelBene is within striking distance of Dave Reichert just a few days before ballots are due to drop.

Here are the three polls, side by side, with findings and metadata:

SurveyUSA FMMM&A Public Policy Polling
(for KING-TV) (for Suzan DelBene) (for Daily Kos)
Dave Reichert: 52% Dave Reichert: 48% Dave Reichert: 49%
Suzan DelBene: 45% Suzan DelBene: 44% Suzan DelBene: 46%
579 likely voters 400 likely voters 1,036 likely voters
Margin of error: 4.2% Margin of error: 4.9% Margin of error: 3%
Conducted September 27th-29th Conducted October 4th-5th Conducted October 9th-10th

If these polls are to be believed, the race is tightening.

I knew when I met Suzan back in early 2009 that she would make this race competitive. She may not be a career politician with the name familiarity that Reichert has, but that doesn't mean she is inexperienced.

She has an incredibly strong business background and a quiet, patient demeanor that I believe will serve her well if she is elected to Congress.

It's become pretty obvious to anyone who's been paying attention that Reichert is simply ineffective. He has no meaningful accomplishments to his name. He doesn't even have excuses for his indefensible voting record. He just votes the way John Boehner and Eric Cantor tell him to. That must be why he won't commit to any debates with Suzan DelBene. (Both candidates are, however, scheduled to face off today in front of The Seattle Times' editorial board. The Times endorsed DelBene back in August, calling Reichert "unstudied").

DelBene will need every last vote she can find in south King County to win; that is the key battleground of the district. Reichert has traditionally prevailed by taking Pierce and doing well enough in the southeast of King County to squeak on past his previous Democratic opponents. By competing aggressively there, DelBene has a chance to turn the tables and knock Reichert out of Congress.


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