WA-08 just not hurting enough?
As Andrew blogged earlier today, the DCCC's latest polling on Darcy Burner's bid to oust Dave Reichert from congress puts her a few points ahead. But we can't really get too excited, yet. Much as I wish we could, we can't ignore that a) it's just one poll, and not necessarily the least biased one either, and b) this race is the race is still a statisical dead-heat with Burner's reported lead being just barely outside the poll's margin of error. The smallish sample size (400 people) makes me wary too.
While I certainly welcome a friendly poll, this race isn't over yet. Consider:
Matt Stoller at Open Left brings up a very good question, though: in this of all election cycles, when the electorate is mad as hell at the Republican "brand" across the board, why is WA-08 not leaning decisively in Burner's favor?
Ironically, it may be because our Governor has done a good job over the past four years of protecting Washington from the broader economic forces which are causing so much pain elsewhere. In short: voters opt for change when they are personally feeling the pain, and folks in WA-08 may simply not be hurting enough.
And then there's this tidbit from Politico, reporting that the Republican party is spinning into damage control mode and concentrating their meager funds on defending their most challenged seats. They're hanging their brave challengers out to dry (let's be fair here: anyone who would willingly run as a Republican this year against a Democratic incumbent can, I believe, be honestly said to have some bravery in them) in an attempt to save the seats of those Republican incumbents who have arguably done the lousiest jobs for their constituents over the past term.
I'm just saying, if they had done a GOOD job representing their constituents, their seats wouldn't be so vulnerable to Democratic challengers, would they? Irony aside--and there surely has to be more of that to go around this year than RNC/RCCC dollars--it means that we can expect Dangerous Dave Reichert to receive more national Republican money to cover for his own anemic fundraising efforts and a commensurate late-cycle TV and direct-mail blitz.
So whether this latest poll is dead-accurate or way off base, Darcy still has a tough road to travel these last few weeks of the campaign. She knows it (her campaign is looking for canvassers all the time). The DNC, DCCC, and the state party know it (and I hope they step up to help).
And if you didn't before, now you know it.
Please, folks. This race really does matter, and you can help. Obviously, you can contribute to the campaign. But unless you have a spare five million dollars lying around, contributing is probably not the most effective thing you can do. The best thing you can do is volunteer to be a canvasser. Here's why:
A poll taken early last week, before the two Burner/Reichert debates, showed something pretty interesting. When people don't know much about either candidate, they prefer Reichert to Burner by 48 to 45 percent. Like I said before, we're just not feeling enough pain around here to vote for change as a default position. But after learning more about both candidates--their backgrounds and positions on issues--the numbers switch to a 9% LEAD for Darcy Burner (with her winning by 50 to 41 percent).
That's totally credible to me because I know her personally. It makes perfect sense to me that the more people get to know Darcy Burner, the more they like her. I've had that experience myself. There is, after all, a lot there to like.
That is where you, me, and everybody else with two feet or four wheels to get around on can make a difference. Volunteer with the campaign and go knock on some doors. Help voters in this district get to know Darcy, and you'll help her win.
The time is now. Personal voter contact really does matter. Indeed, it's just about the only thing that does.
I don't think anyone reading this wants to wake up disappointed on November 5th. If we come to feel the economic pain later, it'll be too late to undo those lazy votes for Lazy Dave. Reichert will be safe for another two years in his cozy DC office where he doesn't have to do anything but vote like his party leaders tell him. We will have lost the opportunity to send the amazing, talented, brilliant leader that is Darcy Burner to Congress where I know she will not rest until this country is again the world's leading example of freedom, justice, and prosperity.
Personally, I want to live in the free, fair, and prosperous America that I know Darcy Burner will help create, if only we give her the chance.
While I certainly welcome a friendly poll, this race isn't over yet. Consider:
Matt Stoller at Open Left brings up a very good question, though: in this of all election cycles, when the electorate is mad as hell at the Republican "brand" across the board, why is WA-08 not leaning decisively in Burner's favor?
Ironically, it may be because our Governor has done a good job over the past four years of protecting Washington from the broader economic forces which are causing so much pain elsewhere. In short: voters opt for change when they are personally feeling the pain, and folks in WA-08 may simply not be hurting enough.
And then there's this tidbit from Politico, reporting that the Republican party is spinning into damage control mode and concentrating their meager funds on defending their most challenged seats. They're hanging their brave challengers out to dry (let's be fair here: anyone who would willingly run as a Republican this year against a Democratic incumbent can, I believe, be honestly said to have some bravery in them) in an attempt to save the seats of those Republican incumbents who have arguably done the lousiest jobs for their constituents over the past term.
I'm just saying, if they had done a GOOD job representing their constituents, their seats wouldn't be so vulnerable to Democratic challengers, would they? Irony aside--and there surely has to be more of that to go around this year than RNC/RCCC dollars--it means that we can expect Dangerous Dave Reichert to receive more national Republican money to cover for his own anemic fundraising efforts and a commensurate late-cycle TV and direct-mail blitz.
So whether this latest poll is dead-accurate or way off base, Darcy still has a tough road to travel these last few weeks of the campaign. She knows it (her campaign is looking for canvassers all the time). The DNC, DCCC, and the state party know it (and I hope they step up to help).
And if you didn't before, now you know it.
Please, folks. This race really does matter, and you can help. Obviously, you can contribute to the campaign. But unless you have a spare five million dollars lying around, contributing is probably not the most effective thing you can do. The best thing you can do is volunteer to be a canvasser. Here's why:
A poll taken early last week, before the two Burner/Reichert debates, showed something pretty interesting. When people don't know much about either candidate, they prefer Reichert to Burner by 48 to 45 percent. Like I said before, we're just not feeling enough pain around here to vote for change as a default position. But after learning more about both candidates--their backgrounds and positions on issues--the numbers switch to a 9% LEAD for Darcy Burner (with her winning by 50 to 41 percent).
That's totally credible to me because I know her personally. It makes perfect sense to me that the more people get to know Darcy Burner, the more they like her. I've had that experience myself. There is, after all, a lot there to like.
That is where you, me, and everybody else with two feet or four wheels to get around on can make a difference. Volunteer with the campaign and go knock on some doors. Help voters in this district get to know Darcy, and you'll help her win.
The time is now. Personal voter contact really does matter. Indeed, it's just about the only thing that does.
I don't think anyone reading this wants to wake up disappointed on November 5th. If we come to feel the economic pain later, it'll be too late to undo those lazy votes for Lazy Dave. Reichert will be safe for another two years in his cozy DC office where he doesn't have to do anything but vote like his party leaders tell him. We will have lost the opportunity to send the amazing, talented, brilliant leader that is Darcy Burner to Congress where I know she will not rest until this country is again the world's leading example of freedom, justice, and prosperity.
Personally, I want to live in the free, fair, and prosperous America that I know Darcy Burner will help create, if only we give her the chance.
# Posted by Jason Black : 3:17 PM
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