Electoral map looking good for Obama

With John McCain already folding up his tent in Michigan, now word comes that he's on the verge of losing Virginia, a reliably GOP state in presidential elections since 1964, too.

The two best indicators of which states the campaigns are serious about – time and money – tell the story.

Since wrapping up the Democratic nomination in June, Obama, his wife, Michelle, and his running mate Joe Biden have visited the commonwealth a combined 12 times. The candidate himself was in the Tidewater city of Newport News Saturday.

Obama is also plowing millions into Virginia, blanketing the airwaves with TV and radio ads, filling up mailboxes with leaflets and, along with the state party, operating 49 campaign offices.

Together, McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, have held just one campaign event in Virginia. And the campaign has taken its ads off the pricey Washington, D.C. network affiliates that reach into the entire swath of the Northern Virginia, the commonwealth’s most populous region. [emphasis mine]

Virginia has 13 votes in the Electoral College. It's been a reliable Republican stronghold in the past, but that certainly isn't an indicator of future performance, especially given the recent elections of Mark Warner and, subsequently, Tim Kaine as governor. That Virginia is in play is a testament to the Obama ground game and the resources the campaign has available to put traditional red states into play. Obama's gains in Virginia are also a function of John McCain blowing the state off. You can't expect voters to vote for you if you don't put in the effort. But John McCain thinks he can mail it in, because he's still taking weekends off.

McCain also seems to be doing his level best to lose the senior vote in Florida, by proposing tax credits that would be paid for by cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.

John McCain would pay for his health plan with major reductions to Medicare and Medicaid, a top aide said, in a move that independent analysts estimate could result in cuts of $1.3 trillion over 10 years to the government programs.

This comes after McCain called Social Security a disgrace.

And it never helps when your own campaign shoots itself in the foot., by admitting that it is muddying the waters by throwing out smears instead of talking about the issues that matter to most Americans.

"It's a dangerous road, but we have no choice," a top McCain strategist told the Daily News. "If we keep talking about the economic crisis, we're going to lose."

One of the greatest allies a candidate can have in the final month of a campaign is known as the Big Mo. That's momentum. Having the appearance of the Big Mo can help a campaign ride the crest of a big wave to victory. Of course, the opposite is true too. If your opponent has the Big Mo, your campaign is likely to crash and burn in the final weeks of the campaign.

While it certainly appears that Barack Obama has the Big Mo on his side, this is no time for progressives/liberals/Democrats to get complacent. Republicans are already playing their dirty tricks trying to steal the election. We still have much work to do, and we can't quit until November 5, but on this day things are looking better than ever for Barack Obama.