Offering frequent news and analysis from the majestic Evergreen State and beyond, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Darcy Burner edges closer to Reichert

King and Pierce Counties earlier this evening released the results of thousands of ballots tallied during the day. King County released about 28,500, while Pierce released about 2,750. The new numbers have tightened the race ever so slightly, and Darcy Burner now trails Reichert more closely than before.

The difference between the two candidates is currently 2,736 votes.

Despite the new influx of ballots and an amended total, the race remains too close to call, with no clear outcome in sight.

Around 152,500 ballots have been counted so far in the 8th District. King County has at least 31,500 known ballots left to count, but tens of thousands more are expected to arrive in the mail within the next couple of days or so.

The number of votes left to count in Pierce County is substantially less than that. In fact, Pierce doesn't even normally comprise a fifth of the district's total vote (it's about 19%). Most of the people of the 8th District live in King County.

If Darcy continues trending upwards, slowly but surely she will eat away at Reichert's lead until it is virtually nonexistent or she surpasses the Republican.

A few traditional news outlets had curious headlines on their websites earlier today, such as "Reichert appears headed for victory" or "Almost in the bag" or "Reichert win likely." That's jumping to conclusions - foolishly.

In two nationally watched U.S. Senate races, the Democratic candidates trailed the Republican incumbents by slim margins but then came from behind to seize the lead. Those candidates? Claire McCaskill and James Webb.

Earlier in the evening last night, at Election Night parties, many Democrats I met expressed skepticism that either was going win. I was asked by a fellow progressive what I thought about the chances of getting the U.S. Senate and I confidently replied that I thought we would take it.

I got an incredulous look, but I explained that I was holding out hope for McCaskill, Webb, and Tester - all of whom seem to have prevailed. (Allen and Burns have not yet conceded - Talent has).

McCaskill and Webb surged ahead late because a lot of the votes from their urban strongholds were not tallied and reported until late into the night.

What's happening in Washington's 8th is similar to what happened in those other races. Here everything is being drawn out because the outcome hinges on the mail-in ballots, and Washington law sets the cutoff date for postmarked ballots as Election Day itself. So in tight races, it takes a while to learn the end result. In the last few elections, on average, somewhere between seventy to eighty percent of the county's voters have cast their votes by absentee.

The point is that Darcy may end up taking the lead away from Dave Reichert in the coming days, just as McCaskill and Webb emerged out in front after trailing early. And if the final result is close, we may have to endure another recount or two.

Then again, that scenario may not happen. We just have to wait and see - and until then, not jump to conclusions.

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