Republicans ready to vote for Pete Serrano for Attorney General, Nick Brown opens up a lead over fellow Democrat Manka Dhingra

With sev­er­al months still to go until Fil­ing Week, the 2024 con­test for Attor­ney Gen­er­al of Wash­ing­ton State is start­ing to come into sharp­er focus. The Wash­ing­ton State Repub­li­can Par­ty has final­ly found a can­di­date to put up for the office — Pete Ser­ra­no. Mean­while, Democ­rats have been coa­lesc­ing behind Nick Brown and Man­ka Dhin­gra, sat­is­fied with hav­ing two high­ly qual­i­fied can­di­dates to choose from. 

NPI’s lat­est statewide sur­vey, which field­ed last week, found that Repub­li­can vot­ers are ready to vote for Ser­ra­no, while Brown has opened up a sev­en-point advan­tage over Dhin­gra since Novem­ber, when our autumn sur­vey found them almost tied.

35% of 789 like­ly Novem­ber 2024 vot­ers inter­viewed last week by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling for the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute said they’d vote for Ser­ra­no if the elec­tion were being held now, while 19% said they’d vote for Brown. 12% said they’d vote for Dhin­gra. Just over a third were not sure. That’s not sur­pris­ing, con­sid­er­ing this is an open seat and the can­di­dates don’t have the statewide name recog­ni­tion that folks like incum­bent AG Bob Fer­gu­son or for­mer AG Rob McKen­na do. Fer­gu­son is cur­rent­ly a can­di­date for gov­er­nor. So was McKen­na in 2012, though he lost to Jay Inslee. 

Ser­ra­no will effec­tive­ly be a lock for the gen­er­al elec­tion if no oth­er Repub­li­can files, because he’ll be able to con­sol­i­date the Repub­li­can vote behind his candidacy. 

That leaves one spot for one of the Democ­rats. Who’ll it be?

Brown is a for­mer Unit­ed States Attor­ney for West­ern Wash­ing­ton. He was nom­i­nat­ed by Pres­i­dent Joe Biden and con­firmed by the Unit­ed States Sen­ate in 2021. He resigned last year in prepa­ra­tion for his run for Attor­ney Gen­er­al. He returned to Paci­fi­ca Law Group, which has rep­re­sent­ed NPI in sev­er­al mat­ters, and is a lit­i­ga­tion part­ner there.

From 2013–2017, Nick­’s Paci­fi­ca biog­ra­phy notes that he Gov­er­nor Inslee’s gen­er­al coun­sel “advis­ing on an array of legal issues, includ­ing high-pri­or­i­ty lit­i­ga­tion, crim­i­nal jus­tice pol­i­cy, trib­al gam­ing and Indi­an law, and clemen­cy peti­tions. He also man­aged the Governor’s judi­cial appoint­ments, includ­ing the appoint­ment of fifty-two judges.”

“Pri­or to that, Nick served as Assis­tant U.S. Attor­ney in the U.S. Attorney’s Office, West­ern Dis­trict of Wash­ing­ton, where he was respon­si­ble for the man­age­ment of a vari­ety of fed­er­al crim­i­nal cas­es, from ini­tial inves­ti­ga­tion to tri­al and sen­tenc­ing, and through the appel­late process. In that role, Nick appeared before every fed­er­al judge in the West­ern Dis­trict of Wash­ing­ton and pros­e­cut­ed over one hun­dred indi­vid­ual cases.”

Dhin­gra is a Wash­ing­ton State Sen­a­tor from the 45th Leg­isla­tive Dis­trict who serves as Deputy Sen­ate Major­i­ty Leader. Her vic­to­ry in a 2017 spe­cial elec­tion flipped con­trol of the Sen­ate to the Demo­c­ra­t­ic Par­ty. Dhin­gra has served on the board of NPI’s sib­ling orga­ni­za­tion, the North­west Pro­gres­sive Foun­da­tion (NPF), since its 2018 inception. 

Her cam­paign biog­ra­phy notes that she has been a Senior Deputy Pros­e­cut­ing Attor­ney with King Coun­ty since Jan­u­ary 2000 (work­ing for a suc­ces­sion of pros­e­cu­tors, from Norm Maleng to Dan Sat­ter­berg and Leesa Man­ion) and has pre­vi­ous­ly chaired the coun­ty’s Ther­a­peu­tic Alter­na­tive Unit. “As Chair, she super­vised the Region­al Men­tal Health court, Vet­er­ans Court and the Com­mu­ni­ty Assess­ment and Refer­ral for Diver­sion pro­gram. She helped cre­ate the forty-hour cri­sis inter­ven­tion train­ing for law enforce­ment and was a train­er at the Crim­i­nal Jus­tice Train­ing Commission.” 

“In her pro­fes­sion­al capac­i­ty, she has also served as a mem­ber of Shore­line Police Department’s Advi­so­ry Group for Response Aware­ness De-esca­la­tion and Refer­ral (RADAR) and par­tic­i­pat­ed in the Seat­tle Police Department’s Mus­lim, Sikh, and Arab Advi­so­ry Coun­cil. She led the Coor­di­nat­ed Cri­sis Inter­ven­tion Response meet­ings where she col­lab­o­rat­ed with all King Coun­ty law enforce­ment offi­cers to find cre­ative solu­tions and coor­di­nate respons­es to help indi­vid­u­als with men­tal illness.”

Both Brown and Dhin­gra are peo­ple of col­or and would bring diver­si­ty to the exec­u­tive depart­ment if elect­ed. Democ­rats have held the post of Attor­ney Gen­er­al for most of the last half-cen­tu­ry, with the excep­tion of Rob McKen­na’s eight-year stint from 2005 until 2013. It has been twelve years since the posi­tion was open. 

For Demo­c­ra­t­ic vot­ers, hav­ing mul­ti­ple options to choose from makes it hard­er to reach a deci­sion. It is not sur­pris­ing that we have found 34% not sure in each of our last two sur­veys. Whichev­er Demo­c­rat wins in the Top Two ought to be able to con­sol­i­date the Demo­c­ra­t­ic vote for the Novem­ber gen­er­al elec­tion, however. 

Here’s the exact ques­tion that we asked and the answers we received:

QUESTION: If the elec­tion for Attor­ney Gen­er­al of Wash­ing­ton State were being held today and the can­di­dates were Demo­c­rat Man­ka Dhin­gra, Repub­li­can Pete Ser­ra­no, and Demo­c­rat Nick Brown, who would you vote for?

ANSWERS:

• Repub­li­can Pete Ser­ra­no: 35% (was­n’t a can­di­date in November)
• Demo­c­rat Nick Brown: 19% (+6% since November) 
• Demo­c­rat Man­ka Dhin­gra: 12% (-2% since November)
• Not sure: 34% (unchanged since November)

Our sur­vey of 789 like­ly 2024 Wash­ing­ton State vot­ers was in the field from Tues­day, Feb­ru­ary 13th through Wednes­day, Feb­ru­ary 14th, 2023.

The poll uti­lizes a blend­ed method­ol­o­gy, with auto­mat­ed phone calls to land­lines (42%) and online answers from respon­dents recruit­ed by text (58%).

It was con­duct­ed by Pub­lic Pol­i­cy Polling (PPP) for the North­west Pro­gres­sive Insti­tute, and has a mar­gin of error of +/- 3.5% at the 95% con­fi­dence interval.

NPI and PPP have worked togeth­er for a decade and have a track record of excel­lence, as detailed in this 2022 elec­toral polling recap and this 2020 one.

This is by far one of this cycle’s most inter­est­ing down­bal­lot races. We’ll con­tin­ue to take a look at it as the year goes on. With so many vot­ers not sure who they’re vot­ing for, it’s hard to draw con­clu­sions about the elec­toral dynam­ics at this ear­ly junc­ture. How effec­tive­ly Brown and Dhin­gra intro­duce them­selves to vot­ers this sum­mer dur­ing the days lead­ing up to the Top Two elec­tion is going to mat­ter a great deal. I expect a vig­or­ous com­pe­ti­tion for endorse­ments and donors between now and August.