Republican Dave Reichert has established a two percentage point lead over Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson in Washington State’s 2024 gubernatorial contest with a little less than a year to go before the deadline arrives to submit ballots in the upcoming presidential election, according to the Northwest Progressive Institute’s latest statewide survey of likely voters.
46% of 700 likely 2024 Washington State voters surveyed on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week by Public Policy Polling said they would vote for Reichert if the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were just Reichert and Ferguson. 44% said they would vote for Ferguson, who NPI’s previous polling has found to be the Democratic frontrunner. 9% were not sure.
Reichert is a former United States Representative and King County Sheriff who previously considered challenging Jay Inslee in 2016 and 2020, but ultimately decided not to run. Reichert won seven consecutive elections for Congress in the 8th Congressional District (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016).
Ferguson has served as Washington State’s Attorney General for over ten years. He took office in January of 2013 after defeating Reagan Dunn in a hard fought battle to choose a successor to Rob McKenna, who opted to run for Governor instead, and lost to Reichert’s colleague Jay Inslee, who at that time had also put in more than a decade of service to Washingtonians in the U.S. House.
Reichert announced several months ago that he was reentering the electoral arena as a candidate for Governor in 2024. Reichert’s decision to run prompted another candidate, fellow Republican Raul Garcia, to quickly pivot and move into the United States Senate race as Maria Cantwell’s challenger. Reichert is now campaigning for a spot on the general election ballot with Garcia’s support.
Reichert and Ferguson are each facing one rival from within their party who has raised a significant amount of money and meets the criteria that we have previously established for inclusion in our 2024 gubernatorial polling.
That criteria is as follows:
- Must be an officially declared candidate for the office who has filed a C1 with the Public Disclosure Commission (PDC)
- Must have declared an affiliation with a major party (the Democratic Party or the Republican Party)
- Must have reported raising at least $50,000 in early money for their current gubernatorial campaign or have previously raised at least $250,000 in a prior campaign for any state-level office, or both
Reichert’s Republican rival is Semi Bird, an ultra MAGA former Richland school board member who was recently ousted from office in a recall and characterizes himself as a constitutional Christian conservative.
Ferguson’s Democratic rival is Mark Mullet, a Washington State Senator who has represented the 5th Legislative District (situated in East King County) since January of 2013, the same month Ferguson became Attorney General.
We asked a separate question in our survey preceding our Reichert versus Ferguson head to head question which included Bird and Mullet, and we found that neither of them is anywhere close to the frontrunners. In that four candidate field question, Reichert and Ferguson were tied at 31% apiece, Bird had 10%, and Mullet had just 5%. 22% of respondents said they were not sure.
Visualization of the first part of NPI’s November 2023 gubernatorial poll finding, which asked respondents about a field of four candidates (Northwest Progressive Institute)
Since polls can’t and don’t predict the future, we can’t say at this juncture what’s going to happen in the August Top Two election next summer, but we see no evidence that either Mullet or Bird have a path to the November general election. Reichert and Ferguson collectively have support from over three in five voters.
Interestingly, Mullet has shed two percentage points since our last survey in June, and that is despite Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz’s recent departure from the gubernatorial race to run for Congress, which some observers speculated might benefit Mullet by leaving him as Ferguson’s sole Democratic rival.
This fresh survey data suggests Franz’s exit hasn’t helped Mullet at all. Instead of gaining traction, Mullet has been experiencing negative momentum.
Bird’s position, meanwhile, is basically unchanged — he had 10% support in our June survey and he has 10% now. Bird appears to have some devoted supporters, but not enough to give Dave Reichert much heartburn.
Here is the full text of both questions we asked and the answers we received:
QUESTION: If the election for Governor of Washington State were being held today, and the candidates were Democrat Bob Ferguson, Republican Semi Bird, Democrat Mark Mullet, and Republican Dave Reichert, who would you vote for?
Half the poll sample saw the question with the order of candidates as shown above and half the sample saw the question with the order of candidates shown below. The wording was the same, but the order was inverted to make the question as neutral as possible.
If the election for Governor of Washington State were being held today, and the candidates were Republican Dave Reichert, Democrat Mark Mullet, Republican Semi Bird, and Democrat Bob Ferguson, who would you vote for?
ANSWERS:
- Bob Ferguson: 31%
- Dave Reichert: 31%
- Semi Bird: 10%
- Mark Mullet: 5%
- Not sure: 22%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were just Democrat Bob Ferguson and Republican Dave Reichert, who would you vote for?
Half the poll sample saw the question with the order of candidates as shown above and half the sample saw the question with the order of candidates shown below. The wording was the same, but the order was inverted to make the question as neutral as possible.
If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were just Republican Dave Reichert and Democrat Bob Ferguson, who would you vote for?
ANSWERS:
- Dave Reichert: 46%
- Bob Ferguson: 44%
- Not sure: 9%
Our survey of 700 likely 2024 Washington State voters was in the field from Tuesday, November 14th through Wednesday, November 15th, 2023.
The poll utilizes a blended methodology, with automated phone calls to landlines (42%) and online answers from respondents recruited by text (58%).
It was conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence interval.
Follow this link for additional methodology details, including demographic data.
NPI and PPP have worked together for a decade and have a track record of excellence, as detailed in this 2022 electoral polling recap and this 2020 one.
Why Reichert is ahead in the head-to-head
To understand why Dave Reichert has a slim lead in the head to head matchup with Bob Ferguson, let’s dive into the crosstabs.
Here are the responses by party for that question:
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were just Democrat Bob Ferguson and Republican Dave Reichert, who would you vote for?
ANSWERS BY PARTY:
- Democrats
- Dave Reichert: 17%
- Bob Ferguson: 76%
- Not sure: 8%
- Republicans
- Dave Reichert: 90%
- Bob Ferguson: 7%
- Not sure: 3%
- Independents
- Dave Reichert: 47%
- Bob Ferguson: 38%
- Not sure: 15%
From looking at the answers by party, we can see that Republican voters are very united behind Dave Reichert, whereas Democratic voters are less committed to Bob Ferguson. A plurality of independent voters, meanwhile, favor Reichert.
Put those dynamics together and the result is a competitive race one year out.
Analysis and takeaways
Our team imagines that many Cascadia Advocate readers may be surprised by this data. Because Washington has a strong Democratic tilt, we don’t often find a Republican ahead of a Democrat in a statewide race in Washington, particularly when that race is for a top of the ticket office like Governor. That makes this finding one of the most notable and striking that we’ve ever published.
Here are some things to keep in mind while pondering these numbers.
This is an open seat. Current Governor Jay Inslee decided last spring not to seek an unprecedented fourth term as the state’s chief executive. With Democrats not fielding an incumbent in this contest as they were in the last two presidential cycles, Republicans have better chances of winning. It’s usually much easier for the party out of power to pick up a key position like a governorship when the seat is open. The Washington State Republican Party has a track record of pursuing such opportunities. The last two times that a Democratic governor in Washington didn’t seek reelection (2004 and 2012), Republicans fielded candidates who were competitive. Dino Rossi and Rob McKenna didn’t win, but they contended well.
Even in this highly polarized era, states that are usually bastions for one party are capable of occasionally electing candidates from the other. As we just saw in Kentucky, it is possible for a candidate belonging to a party that usually struggles to win statewide elections to be competitive and subsequently win. It’s no exaggeration to say Kentucky is a Republican bastion: this is the state that has repeatedly sent Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell to the United States Senate. Yet Andy Beshear, a likable Democrat, was able to win two successive elections as governor — one four years ago and another this month.
Reichert is well known and has a track record of electoral success. Dave Reichert doesn’t have the work ethic of Bob Ferguson, but he does have plenty of name ID and a history of winning in a large swath of the state usually classified as a swing district, even in Democratic wave years like 2006 and 2008 against a well-funded challenger. I mentioned above that Reichert had won seven consecutive elections for Congress. That’s a lot. With the exception of Rob McKenna, all other recent Republican gubernatorial hopefuls ran without the benefit of that sort of extensive electoral experience on their resumes.
Reichert is currently running without much baggage. Several election cycles ago, Dave Reichert wisely decided to quit while he was undefeated and get out of Congress. He made his exit from the House of Representatives at the midway point of Donald Trump’s time in the Oval Office and was spared from subsequently having to vote on matters such as Trump’s impeachment, which could have jeopardized his standing with the Trump-worshiping Republican base. Reichert was also out of office and out of the electoral arena when the horrific Dobbs decision was handed down, so many Democratic and independent voters likely aren’t aware of his strident opposition to reproductive rights.
The Democratic Party has controlled the governor’s mansion for nearly half a century. Washington voters have not chosen a Republican to be the state’s chief executive since 1980, when John Spellman was elected. Democrats have been running the state’s executive branch for the entirety of all young Washingtonians’ lives and the majority of most everyone else’s. It’s understandable that some voters, including voters who lean Democratic, may be entertaining the idea of giving a Republican a chance to govern for a change. That doesn’t mean they will actually end up voting for Dave Reichert, however.
Bob Ferguson’s support has been growing over the course of the year. This is the third time we’ve polled the 2024 gubernatorial contest. In our first survey, which fielded in March, before Jay Inslee announced his retirement, we found Bob Ferguson with 21% support in a hypothetical field that also included fellow Democrats Hilary Franz and Dow Constantine plus Republican Bruce Dammeier. Dammeier had a plurality lead in that survey of 35%. In June, we found Ferguson at 25% against Franz, Mullet, and Republicans Semi Bird and Raul Garcia. Now, against Reichert, Mullet, and Bird, Ferguson has reached 31% support. That’s a trajectory of progress and momentum. Can he keep it going?
The Top Two election is many months away. While 2024 might be right around the corner, voters will not be casting ballots in the August Top Two election until next summer. We have many seasons of campaigning ahead of us, and that campaigning is likely to alter the dynamics in this race. Importantly, Bob Ferguson has already raised a pretty large war chest and will have the resources to share his campaign’s message with Washington voters.
Reichert’s position looks a lot like McKenna’s, circa 2011
Young readers, out of state readers, or those who are new to Washington politics may not realize that the state has seen an electoral environment like this before.
In 2011 and for months into 2012, most polls showed Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna ahead of future Democratic Governor Jay Inslee, including surveys done by Public Policy Polling, one of NPI’s pollsters, which fielded this project for us. McKenna led in five out of six polls conducted in 2011 and another eight out of eleven conducted in the first half of 2012, according to Wikipedia contributors, who’ve compiled a lot of public opinion research from that cycle.
“The most likely match up for Governor of Washington next year looks like it would be a barn burner, with Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna starting out with just a 40–38 lead over Democratic Congressman Jay Inslee,” Public Policy Polling noted in a May 18th (2011) press release. “The main reason McKenna is ahead of Inslee at this point is slightly higher name recognition. 60% of voters know McKenna well enough to have formed an opinion about him, while that is true for only 51% when it comes to Inslee. The two have similar net favorability ratings with Inslee at +9 (30/21) and McKenna at +8 (34/26).”
The consensus among many journalists and observers in the 2012 cycle was that McKenna was the frontrunner and Inslee the underdog. And the body of public opinion research certainly provided evidence for that view, at least up until the point when Inslee’s campaign began airing ads created by Frank Greer and GMMB that introduced (or reintroduced) him and his family to Washington voters.
After those ads began airing, most polls began finding leads for Inslee rather than McKenna. You can see the shift in the table below, starting in July of 2012.
Table from Wikipedia showing 2011–2012 gubernatorial polling
| Poll source | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | MoE | Jay
Inslee (D) | Rob
McKenna (R) | Not sure |
|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 1–3, 2012 | 932 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| KING5/SurveyUSA | October 28–31, 2012 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| KCTS 9/Washington Poll | October 18–31, 2012 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 49% | 46% | 6% |
| Elway Poll | October 18–21, 2012 | 451 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 47% | 10% |
| Strategies360 | October 17–20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling/WCV | October 15–16, 2012 | 574 | ± n/a% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| KCTS 9/Washington Poll | October 1–16, 2012 | 782 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 14, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 45% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA | October 12–14, 2012 | 543 | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA | September 28–30, 2012 | 540 | ± 4.3% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 26, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Public Elway Poll | September 9–12, 2012 | 405 | ± 5% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 7–9, 2012 | 563 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Survey USA | September 7–9, 2012 | 524 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Survey USA | August 2–3, 2012 | 524 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Elway Poll | July 18–22, 2012 | 405 | ± 5.0% | 43% | 36% | 21% |
| Survey USA | July 16–17, 2012 | 630 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 14–17, 2012 | 1,073 | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Elway Poll | June 13–16, 2012 | 408 | ± 5.0% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Strategies360 | May 22–24, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 43% | 18% |
| Survey USA | May 8–9, 2012 | 557 | ± 4.2% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| Grove Insights | March 26–28, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 34% | 28% |
| Grove Insights | February 21–23, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 16–19, 2012 | 1,264 | ± 2.8% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Survey USA | February 13–15, 2012 | 572 | ± 4.2% | 39% | 49% | 12% |
| Elway Poll | February 7–9, 2012 | 405 | ± 5.0% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
| Survey USA | January 12–16, 2012 | 617 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Survey USA | November 21–23, 2011 | 549 | ± 4.3% | 38% | 44% | 17% |
| Washington Poll | October 10–30, 2011 | 938 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 44% | 18% |
| Survey USA | September 21–22, 2011 | 529 | ± 4.3% | 38% | 44% | 18% |
| Survey USA | June 24–26, 2011 | 600 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ± 3.0% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| Survey USA | April 27–28, 2011 | 610 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 48% | 11% |
Interestingly, one of the questions PPP asked in its May 2011 survey was whether voters would prefer Dave Reichert to Jay Inslee in a hypothetical matchup.
36% said they’d prefer Reichert if the 2012 candidates for governor were Inslee and Reichert, while 42% said Inslee. As I noted above, Reichert later contemplated running against Inslee in 2016 and 2020, but passed both times.
However, now that Inslee is retiring, Reichert is running. And like McKenna in May of 2011, he has a two-point lead over his probable Democratic opponent.
But, if history is any guide, that fragile lead — which is smaller than our poll’s margin of error — could disappear by next summer, or even sooner.
A few thoughts on each candidate’s path to victory
Dave Reichert is slightly ahead now according to our polling, but his path to victory is tougher due to Washington’s Democratic lean. Reichert needs to keep his Republican base behind him, keep independents dialed in, and ensure some Democratic voters feel comfortable enough crossing over to back him. Reichert has signaled that public safety will be a key theme of his campaign along with tax cuts and deregulation — two longtime right wing campaign staples.
Bob Ferguson can win by reeling in most of the Democratic voters who are considering splitting their tickets and improving his standing with independents. If his campaign makes a concerted effort to propose plans which address the anxieties that voters have about Washington’s future, like looming school closures and staff layoffs in districts across the state, that could help him connect with voters. Ferguson has an opportunity in this next phase of the campaign to demonstrate that he’ll be an education-focused governor. It’s an issue Reichert hasn’t focused on much but it’s really, really important to Washingtonians.
Closing thoughts
At NPI, we believe that polling can be an incredibly useful tool for understanding public opinion. But polling has its limitations and it’s important to be aware of them. As I mentioned above, polls can’t and don’t predict future election results. They are snapshots in time, as the saying goes. Our team tries to point this out as often as possible because it unfortunately just doesn’t get said enough.
In 2024, we will be back with more gubernatorial polling at key junctures during the year, and we look forward to bringing you more data.
When sharing this poll finding with others, please encourage people to read the accompanying analysis provided here in this post. Our team believes that poll findings really benefit from context, which is why we always provide analysis along with the text of our questions and the responses.
And lastly, if you appreciate NPI’s research and find it helpful, we hope you’ll consider supporting us by donating or becoming a member.
Friday, November 17th, 2023
Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican challenger Raul Garcia by thirteen points
Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell holds a double digit lead over Republican challenger Raul Garcia in Washington State’s 2024 U.S. Senate race and appears to be on a smooth trajectory to winning reelection next November, the Northwest Progressive Institute’s latest statewide survey has found.
51% of 700 likely Washington State general election voters said they would support Cantwell if the election for U.S. Senate were being held now. 38% said they would support Garcia, the same percentage who said they’d support Donald Trump in a rematch with Joe Biden. 11% were not sure.
Cantwell was first elected to the Senate in 2000 and has been Washington State’s junior senator ever since, serving alongside Patty Murray, who is now the most senior member of the entire Senate Democratic caucus. Cantwell narrowly defeated Republican Slade Gorton and joined a chamber evenly divided between the two major parties. She has won reelection with ease three times since then — in 2006, 2012, and 2018, all of which were Democratic wave years.
Prior to defeating Gorton, Cantwell was a vice president at RealNetworks. She joined the company after losing her U.S. House seat in the “Republican Revolution” of 1994. A fun bit of electoral history: Future Governor Jay Inslee won Cantwell’s old seat back for the Democrats in 1998 and held it for over a decade. Voters chose Suzan DelBene to replace Inslee in 2012 and have continued to reelect her; DelBene now chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of the House Democratic caucus.
Raul Garcia is a doctor with extensive experience in emergency medicine. He was born in Cuba and emigrated to Spain at the age of eleven with his family to escape the Communist regime of Fidel Castro. They moved to Florida after successfully applying for asylum from the United States. Garcia is a graduate of both the University of Miami and the New York College of Osteopathic Medicine. He ran for governor in 2020 against Jay Inslee, but was eliminated in the Top Two election, which Inslee and former Republic police chief Loren Culp won.
Garcia was a gubernatorial candidate for several weeks earlier this year, but dropped out in favor of Dave Reichert when Reichert decided to run. Garcia promptly endorsed Reichert and jumped into the U.S. Senate race as Cantwell’s opponent, solving a problem for the Washington State Republican Party, which had not at that point found a credible challenger to oppose Cantwell.
Garcia is endorsed by Reichert, former Governor Dan Evans (who is still a Republican despite what has happened to his party), former Attorney General Rob McKenna, former State Senator Dino Rossi, Pierce County Executive Bruce Dammeier, former Secretaries of State Ralph Munro and Sam Reed, and an impressively long list of Republican state legislators.
According to the latest data available from the FEC, Garcia has raised $204,437.42 since he began campaigning in July. Cantwell, meanwhile, has reported total receipts of $7,177,955.29 and contributions of $6,521,143.09. Senator Cantwell’s reelection campaign is among the many financial sponsors of NPI’s research, but was not involved in the design or the fielding of this survey.
Here is the full text of both questions we asked and the answers we received:
Our survey of 700 likely 2024 Washington State voters was in the field from Tuesday, November 14th through Wednesday, November 15th, 2023.
The poll utilizes a blended methodology, with automated phone calls to landlines (42%) and online answers from respondents recruited by text (58%).
It was conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence interval.
Follow this link for additional methodology details, including demographic data.
NPI and PPP have worked together for a decade and have a track record of excellence, as detailed in this 2022 electoral polling recap and this 2020 one.
Corroborating data
This is the second time this week that a publicly-released poll finding has found Senator Cantwell comfortably ahead in the 2024 U.S. Senate race.
The first was on Wednesday, when Crosscut published Elway Research’s latest statewide poll. That survey found Cantwell ahead of Garcia by twenty points, with a significant number of respondents undecided. Here’s the breakdown:
Elway’s survey consists of 403 registered voters. 82 were interviewed on landlines, 179 were interviewed on mobiles, and 133 were recruited by text to take the survey online. The margin of error of the survey is +/- 5%. The survey fielded from October 30th — November 3rd. Data is available here.
Unlike in our poll, which was a very simple head-to-head, Elway respondents were given the additional answer choices of “a different Democrat” or “a different Republican.” That’s not a design choice we would make in our questionnaires, but as the saying goes, to each their own. Elway Research has a mostly solid track record and we’re always happy to have their data available to scrutinize.
We can see from the answers above that twice as many respondents picked “a different Republican” than “a different Democrat,” so the inclusion of those additional options seems to have impacted Garcia more than Cantwell.
In our survey, Garcia benefits from being the only option for Republican voters, and Cantwell likewise benefits from being the only option for Democratic voters.
Senator Cantwell is above fifty, which to us is the key indicator — an incumbent at or above fifty in an early poll is considered to be in good shape for reelection.
And Garcia is right about where we’d anticipate a Republican opponent of Cantwell to be. The percentage Garcia has in our survey (which mirrors Trump’s as mentioned earlier) is probably much closer to the percentage Garcia could conceivably be expected to get in next year’s general election. It’s important to remember that neither polls or pundits can predict elections, but we can discuss possible outcomes using available electoral and public opinion research data.
Last cycle (2021–2022) versus this cycle (2023–2024)
In the 2021–2022 cycle, our polling consistently found Democratic Senator Patty Murray at or above fifty percent, with Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley usually behind by a double-digit margin. Our final preelection survey put Murray at 52% and Smiley at 42%, with 6% undecided. Murray subsequently picked up most of the not sure voters and received 57.15% of the vote. Smiley got 42.63%.
Here in the 2023–2024 cycle, we’ve now found Senator Cantwell above fifty percent three times: in March of this year, in June of this year, and now this month. Our March and June surveys pitted Cantwell against a hypothetical candidate, former United States Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler.
Herrera Beutler took a pass on running for Senate, but she is running statewide in 2024, just for a different office: Commissioner of Public Lands.
Now that Cantwell has a declared opponent in Raul Garcia, we can finally start doing head-to-head polling between the candidates Washingtonians are likely to see on the general election ballot next year for this office. As in 2022, we plan to continue taking the pulse of the Washington electorate. We’ll continue to bring you findings in this marquee U.S. senate contest at key intervals in 2024.
# Written by Andrew Villeneuve :: 9:45 AM
Categories: Elections
Tags: Research Poll Findings, US-Sen
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