This afternoon, the three-week counting phase of the 2022 midterm general election in Washington came to an end when elections officials across the state’s thirty-nine counties — from King to Garfield — certified their returns.
Every county’s status on results.vote.wa.gov now shows as “Final.” Turnout is shown as 63.81% of registered voters voting — which is more than three-fifths turnout but not quite two-thirds. As it turns out, that’s average for a midterm.
64.59% of voters returned ballots, but several tens of thousands were rejected and not counted, which is why the turnout figure doesn’t match the returned figure. There were a total of 37,755 challenged ballots, a rate of 1.22%.
3,067,070 returned ballots were accepted and counted from 4,806,882 registered Washington State voters in the election.
How turnout compares to previous midterms
Not including this year’s turnout, the mean for midterms going back to 1938 (the earliest comparable cycle for which there is data available) is 63.52%.
This year’s participation rate, 63.81%, is just above that.
Not lower, not higher, but right on average.
Below is a table showing voter turnout in all midterm elections in Washington State going back to 1938. Data is courtesy of the Secretary of State.
The worst midterm turnout on record was in 1950 (rose-colored row); the best midterm turnout so far was twenty years later, in 1970 (gold-colored row).
And here’s a line chart for more perspective:
Compared to recent midterms, 2022 turnout is:
- not as good as 2018 or 2010 were (Trump / Obama eras)
- not as bad as 2014 or 2002 were (Obama / Bush eras)
- similar to what 2006 was (Bush era)
Unlike in 2010 and 2014 — the Obama-era midterms — Democrats performed spectacularly well in Washington State, showing that the party is capable of having a good midterm cycle even when it controls the presidency.
The Washington State Democratic Party built and operated a first-rate coordinated campaign effort that turned out the Democratic vote. Motivated Democratic voters turned November into “Rovember,” helping the party flip a Republican congressional seat in the 3rd District with Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and reelect Dr. Kim Schrier to to the House in the 8th Congressional District.
Schrier’s margin of victory is actually greater than it was in 2020, which shows how incredibly well Democrats were able to do in a key congressional race.
At the legislative level, instead of losing seats, Democrats gained seats.
The 42nd LD will now have an all-Democratic legislative delegation thanks to a victory by Sharon Shewmake in the hard-fought Senate race there, while Joe Timmons was able to hold onto Shewmake’s House seat.
Shewmake’s seatmate Alicia Rule also won reelection.
Every supposedly vulnerable Democratic incumbent was reelected, and Democrats also appear to have narrowly knocked out Greg Gilday in the 10th District with Clyde Shavers despite an “October surprise” courtesy of Shavers’ father. With no ballots left to count in Island, Snohomish, or Skagit counties, Shavers has a 211 vote lead over Gilday, which ought to hold up to a recount if there is one.
Flabbergasted Republicans have been asking themselves how they blew it.
One discussion thread on militant Republican State Representative Jim Walsh’s Facebook page ranged from sober reflection to (sadly) wild conspiracy theories with absolutely no basis in reality. Walsh himself opined: “There was no ‘red wave’ in WA because Republican voters didn’t vote as much as expected. In other words, 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺.” (Emphasis is his).
But not on the Democratic side. Democratic voters turned out and made 2022 — which Republicans fervently believed was going to be a “red wave” year — a blue wave year in Washington instead. Overall turnout wasn’t as high as in 2018, but since Democratic voters showed up, Democrats got good results.
Despite knowing that midterm elections consistently have lower turnout than presidential cycles, Walsh still characterized 2018 in his Facebook post as being “considered a low-turnout year.” He is totally wrong on that score. 2018 was actually one of our best turnout years. As you can see from the table, it’s our second-best all time turnout in a midterm, behind only 1970.
So it’s actually not a great cycle to compare 2022 to. A better comparison might be 1994, the first midterm of the Clinton presidency, which had some similar dynamics to this cycle. In that midterm, Washington turnout did not surpass 60%.
Republican voters turned out in droves that year, while many Democratic voters stayed home, resulting in Democrats losing a huge number of congressional and legislative seats. It took Democrats several cycles to regain that lost ground.
We could also look at the Carter presidency’s midterm in 1978: turnout then wasn’t much higher than fifty percent. Both of those midterms had below average turnout. 2018 had higher than usual turnout. 2022, meanwhile, was typical.
Walsh is right about one thing. He wrote: “Why didn’t Republican voters in WA vote as much as expected in what was supposed to be a positive ‘wave’ election? That question will take more time and more data to answer completely.”
Our team believes that Republicans hurt themselves by trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. In attempting feverishly to demotivate Democrats, they ended up demotivating their own base. Words that comes to mind when I reflect on how Republican elected officials approached this election cycle are arrogance and entitlement. They spoke and acted as though they were owed a red wave.
The voters had other ideas.
Democrats, meanwhile, did not take the electorate for granted, working instead to to compete as effectively as they could in a landscape with gerrymandered maps, big dark money, and unfavorable, unfriendly media coverage.
The victories Democrats achieved in 2022 are a testament to what can be accomplished with hard work and smart investments. A political party that is determined to create its own luck and shape events rather than being shaped by events is a party that can find electoral success even in the face of great adversity.
Tuesday, November 29th, 2022
Counties certify 2022 midterm election in Washington State; turnout about average
This afternoon, the three-week counting phase of the 2022 midterm general election in Washington came to an end when elections officials across the state’s thirty-nine counties — from King to Garfield — certified their returns.
Every county’s status on results.vote.wa.gov now shows as “Final.” Turnout is shown as 63.81% of registered voters voting — which is more than three-fifths turnout but not quite two-thirds. As it turns out, that’s average for a midterm.
64.59% of voters returned ballots, but several tens of thousands were rejected and not counted, which is why the turnout figure doesn’t match the returned figure. There were a total of 37,755 challenged ballots, a rate of 1.22%.
3,067,070 returned ballots were accepted and counted from 4,806,882 registered Washington State voters in the election.
How turnout compares to previous midterms
Not including this year’s turnout, the mean for midterms going back to 1938 (the earliest comparable cycle for which there is data available) is 63.52%.
This year’s participation rate, 63.81%, is just above that.
Not lower, not higher, but right on average.
Below is a table showing voter turnout in all midterm elections in Washington State going back to 1938. Data is courtesy of the Secretary of State.
The worst midterm turnout on record was in 1950 (rose-colored row); the best midterm turnout so far was twenty years later, in 1970 (gold-colored row).
And here’s a line chart for more perspective:
Compared to recent midterms, 2022 turnout is:
Unlike in 2010 and 2014 — the Obama-era midterms — Democrats performed spectacularly well in Washington State, showing that the party is capable of having a good midterm cycle even when it controls the presidency.
The Washington State Democratic Party built and operated a first-rate coordinated campaign effort that turned out the Democratic vote. Motivated Democratic voters turned November into “Rovember,” helping the party flip a Republican congressional seat in the 3rd District with Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and reelect Dr. Kim Schrier to to the House in the 8th Congressional District.
Schrier’s margin of victory is actually greater than it was in 2020, which shows how incredibly well Democrats were able to do in a key congressional race.
At the legislative level, instead of losing seats, Democrats gained seats.
The 42nd LD will now have an all-Democratic legislative delegation thanks to a victory by Sharon Shewmake in the hard-fought Senate race there, while Joe Timmons was able to hold onto Shewmake’s House seat.
Shewmake’s seatmate Alicia Rule also won reelection.
Every supposedly vulnerable Democratic incumbent was reelected, and Democrats also appear to have narrowly knocked out Greg Gilday in the 10th District with Clyde Shavers despite an “October surprise” courtesy of Shavers’ father. With no ballots left to count in Island, Snohomish, or Skagit counties, Shavers has a 211 vote lead over Gilday, which ought to hold up to a recount if there is one.
Flabbergasted Republicans have been asking themselves how they blew it.
One discussion thread on militant Republican State Representative Jim Walsh’s Facebook page ranged from sober reflection to (sadly) wild conspiracy theories with absolutely no basis in reality. Walsh himself opined: “There was no ‘red wave’ in WA because Republican voters didn’t vote as much as expected. In other words, 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺.” (Emphasis is his).
But not on the Democratic side. Democratic voters turned out and made 2022 — which Republicans fervently believed was going to be a “red wave” year — a blue wave year in Washington instead. Overall turnout wasn’t as high as in 2018, but since Democratic voters showed up, Democrats got good results.
Despite knowing that midterm elections consistently have lower turnout than presidential cycles, Walsh still characterized 2018 in his Facebook post as being “considered a low-turnout year.” He is totally wrong on that score. 2018 was actually one of our best turnout years. As you can see from the table, it’s our second-best all time turnout in a midterm, behind only 1970.
So it’s actually not a great cycle to compare 2022 to. A better comparison might be 1994, the first midterm of the Clinton presidency, which had some similar dynamics to this cycle. In that midterm, Washington turnout did not surpass 60%.
Republican voters turned out in droves that year, while many Democratic voters stayed home, resulting in Democrats losing a huge number of congressional and legislative seats. It took Democrats several cycles to regain that lost ground.
We could also look at the Carter presidency’s midterm in 1978: turnout then wasn’t much higher than fifty percent. Both of those midterms had below average turnout. 2018 had higher than usual turnout. 2022, meanwhile, was typical.
Walsh is right about one thing. He wrote: “Why didn’t Republican voters in WA vote as much as expected in what was supposed to be a positive ‘wave’ election? That question will take more time and more data to answer completely.”
Our team believes that Republicans hurt themselves by trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. In attempting feverishly to demotivate Democrats, they ended up demotivating their own base. Words that comes to mind when I reflect on how Republican elected officials approached this election cycle are arrogance and entitlement. They spoke and acted as though they were owed a red wave.
The voters had other ideas.
Democrats, meanwhile, did not take the electorate for granted, working instead to to compete as effectively as they could in a landscape with gerrymandered maps, big dark money, and unfavorable, unfriendly media coverage.
The victories Democrats achieved in 2022 are a testament to what can be accomplished with hard work and smart investments. A political party that is determined to create its own luck and shape events rather than being shaped by events is a party that can find electoral success even in the face of great adversity.
# Written by Andrew Villeneuve :: 6:25 PM
Categories: Elections
Tags: Voter Turnout
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