For the second time in as many weeks, a new poll has been released that correlates NPI’s recent statewide poll findings demonstrating that it’s the Democratic Party that is heading into the midterms in Washington State with momentum and vote enthusiasm. Last week, it was SurveyUSA, in partnership with KING5, The Seattle Times, and our state’s two biggest public universities. Today, it’s Elway Research, in partnership with Cascade Public Media’s Crosscut.
Crosscut/Elway found Patty Murray with a twenty-point advantage over Tiffany Smiley — her biggest lead of the entire cycle! — and a similar twenty-point advantage for Democrats in state legislative races. Crosscut/Elway also found that Democrats have a double digit lead on the congressional generic ballot.
Here are the key horserace questions and the findings:
QUESTION: As you probably know, there be an election this year for U.S. Senator. As things stand today, are you inclined to vote for…
- Patty Murray: 53%
- Tiffany Smiley: 33%
- Undecided: 15%
Congressional generic ballot
QUESTION: In the race for Congress in your district, are you inclined to vote for…
- The Democratic candidate: 51%
- The Republican candidate: 32%
- Other: 3%
- Undecided: 13%
State legislative control
QUESTION: You will be asked to vote on two state representatives and perhaps a state senator, depending on your district. As things stand today, in these races for the state legislature, are you more likely to vote for … ?
- Democrats: 54%
- All Democrats: 31%
- Mostly Democrats: 23%
- Republicans: 34%
- Mostly Republicans: 12%
- All Republicans: 22%
- Undecided: 12%
And here’s the methodology:
The Poll was conducted July 7–11, 2022 with 400 registered voters in Washington. Almost 12% of respondents participated in live calls by landline; nearly 33% by live cell phone calls; and just over 55% participated online after text message invitation. It has a margin of error of ± 4.5% at a 95% confidence level. This means that had this same survey been conducted 100 times, the results would be within 4.5 percentage points of the result reported here at least 95 times.
Note that the poll was of registered voters; NPI’s June 2022 poll with Public Policy Polling and SurveyUSA’s poll with its partners were of likely voters. SurveyUSA interviewed over six hundred voters; our survey interviewed over a thousand.
The poll did not ask about the contest for Secretary of State. There’s a special election for that office this year due to Kim Wyman’s resignation to take a job with CISA in the Biden administration. In NPI’s polling, Democratic incumbent Steve Hobbs leads a crowded field, with no challenger polling above 6%.
“There’s a lot to unpack here. This is going to be an interesting election. The Poll gives us a lot of hints about how interesting it will be, especially with party loyalties starting to shift in Washington, but not, apparently, toward a red wave,” said Crosscut News Editor Donna Gordon Blankinship in a press release.
“Republicans appeared to have momentum in January, but The January 6th Hearings and the Supreme Court decisions have shifted the political tide,” said pollster Stuart Elway, who conducted the survey. “Overall, Washington voters are anxious about the current state of affairs and dissatisfied with current leaders, but they are disinclined to give the reins to the Republicans.”
(Props to Stuart Elway for saying “reins” instead of “reigns” in his statement!)
Elway’s findings largely mirror those of SurveyUSA’s from earlier this month, which in turn largely mirror our findings from last month.
We now have three statewide polls conducted within sixty days which are all in general agreement that Patty Murray has a double digit lead over Tiffany Smiley and momentum is on the Democrats’ side, with majorities supportive of continued Democratic control of the Washington State Legislature and intending to support Democratic candidates for the United States House of Representative.
Elway/Crosscut and KING5/SurveyUSA also found majority support for banning assault weapons. After we unveiled our finding on that issue last month, right wingers like Dori Monson tried to heap scorn on our research, arguing it wasn’t credible. But it has now been correlated twice over, showing once again that we succeeded in getting a good sense of what public opinion in Washington is.
Washington’s August 2nd Top Two election is currently in progress and will end on Tuesday, August 2nd at 8 PM, when ballots are due back. Voters will winnow large fields of candidates for several federal offices (and Secretary of State) down to just two apiece, regardless of party. Those top two candidates will then square off with each other in the November general election.