Socialist icon Kshama Sawant came from behind to win in not one, but two out of her three successful bids for Seattle City Council in the 2010s.
Now, following a second favorable drop published this afternoon, it appears that she’s done it again. Sawant is on the verge of defeating a right wing backed campaign to recall her from office, which means she will remain the Seattle City Council’s most senior member and win a fourth consecutive election in Seattle.
With 40,629 ballots now counted, Sawant’s position (Recall No) has a slim two hundred and thirty-two vote lead, not unlike the small two hundred and forty-six vote lead that the pro-recall camp had yesterday.
However, unlike that lead, Sawant’s is likely to stick.
King County Elections doesn’t list any ballots as awaiting tabulation, which means that we’re down to a trickle of incoming ballots.
That just leaves the challenged ballots (as of this evening, there were 591 ballots with signature challenges that still needed to be resolved) and Sawant is backed by the best ballot curing operation around these parts.
Sawant won an impressive 67.3% of the ballots in today’s ballot drop. That is even better than Sawant’s performance in yesterday’s drop. And those challenged ballots aren’t going to swing the outcome. “Even if they were all cured, Yes would have to win 70% of them to take the lead, when in fact they’re likely more than 60%-40% No,” Civic Ventures’ David Goldstein pointed out this afternoon.
While we can’t say with total certainty that Sawant has won yet, we do feel comfortable projecting that a Sawant victory is the most likely outcome.
If Sawant prevails when the recall is certified, it will be her fourth straight victory in a city-level election… and her narrowest yet. Here’s how the recall compares to the other times Sawant has been on the ballot:
Yesterday, as the pro-recall camp was losing ground, The Seattle Times reported some of recall organizer Henry Bridger II’s comments from Election Night:
Recall Sawant campaign manager and chair Henry Bridger II, who also wasn’t available for comment Wednesday, said Tuesday night he was not worried about the ballot-counting results skewing toward Sawant as the count goes on because he believed the initial results are the sentiment of the district.
The implication of this statement is that some people’s votes matter while other people’s votes don’t. Wrong.
This is not that far off from the nonsense we hear from the Trump camp about how we should stop counting ballots on Election Night (so long as they’re ahead, of course!)
Every vote counts, and this recall is once again demonstrating that. The initial results were partial and incomplete.
And not even the official, certified results will tell us how all the voters collectively feel because we won’t get to 100% turnout.
Anyone can engage in this kind of cherry-picking.
Henry Bridger logic: Today’s results captured the “sentiment of the district.” They demonstrate that Sawant is massively beloved by her constituents. Look at all of the D3 voters who turned out to support her in the final hours!
Bridger did not have any comment on today’s lead flip either; Sarah Grace Taylor reported that no reaction was offered when she reached out for a statement. That’s just as well: we’d probably have gotten another variation of yesterday’s nonsensical declaration that the “initial results are the sentiment of the district.”
NPI does not endorse candidates or engage in electioneering for or against any candidate. Accordingly, we had no position on the Sawant recall and were not involved in either the Recall Yes or the Recall No campaigns.