King County’s 5th Legislative District appears ready for more progressive representation

Last night’s ear­ly elec­tion results in the 5th Leg­isla­tive Dis­trict, if they hold, should put an end to the end­less pon­tif­i­cat­ing that despite elect­ing three Demo­c­ra­t­ic leg­is­la­tors in 2018, the 5th is a pur­ple dis­trict… and that the only way Democ­rats can win there is by run­ning can­di­dates who oppose pro­gres­sive ideas.

The ear­ly gen­er­al elec­tion results, which are total­ly con­sis­tent with the August Top Two elec­tion results, tell a dif­fer­ent sto­ry. The dis­trict is now 60%-68% blue, com­pa­ra­ble with safe Demo­c­ra­t­ic dis­tricts to the west.

Con­sid­er the race for State House, Posi­tion #1. In this race pit­ting a Demo­c­rat against a Repub­li­can, Bill Ramos leads 63% to 37%.

That’s a mas­sive mar­gin, espe­cial­ly con­sid­er­ing that only four years ago, Repub­li­cans won both of the dis­tric­t’s State House races.

In the race for State House, Posi­tion #2, Lisa Callan is unop­posed and get­ting 90% of the vote against 10% write-ins, which are pre­sump­tive­ly com­ing from Repub­li­can vot­ers who found Lisa unpalat­able. A more real­is­tic analy­sis includes blank bal­lots. Tak­ing those into account, Lisa gets 68%.

The Sen­ate race is more dif­fi­cult to ana­lyze. In this all-Demo­c­ra­t­ic race, Ingrid Ander­son leads Mark Mul­let 50% to 48%. As in Lisa Callan’s one-sided race, we need to con­sid­er the blank bal­lots. That analy­sis shows Ingrid lead­ing 44% to 43% with 13% of the vot­ers sit­ting this race out. Obvi­ous­ly, many Repub­li­cans chose to vote in this race, since the dis­trict is at least 32% — 35% Republican.

What’s inter­est­ing in the Sen­ate race is that Ander­son ran as an unapolo­getic pro­gres­sive Demo­c­rat, while Mul­let active­ly court­ed Repub­li­can voters.

Mark is def­i­nite­ly still in this, and with many votes still yet to be count­ed, he may ulti­mate­ly win (though Ander­son is in the bet­ter position).

But if he does win, it will be a dif­fi­cult strat­e­gy to repeat.

As a two term incum­bent, his name recog­ni­tion should have car­ried him to an easy vic­to­ry. But hav­ing already vio­lat­ed the num­ber one rule in pol­i­tics (don’t alien­ate your base), he swung hard in the oth­er direction.

Mul­let ran on his oppo­si­tion to pro­gres­sive tax reform, includ­ing a cap­i­tal gains tax on the wealthy, his record of chan­nel­ing dol­lars into the dis­trict, espe­cial­ly for high­way projects, and his enthu­si­asm for work­ing close­ly with Republicans.

He clear­ly mis­read his district.

By my cal­cu­la­tions, Ander­son received well over two-thirds of the Demo­c­ra­t­ic votes. While Mul­let did suc­ceed in woo­ing a sig­nif­i­cant num­ber of Repub­li­cans, it wasn’t quite enough to secure first place in the ini­tial returns.

The 5th is a solid­ly blue slice of King Coun­ty now, with a rapid­ly increas­ing num­ber of vot­ers who desire strong pro­gres­sive representation.

If Ander­son wins, the dis­trict will get a sen­a­tor who will fit in nice­ly with the East­side’s diver­si­fy­ing leg­isla­tive del­e­ga­tion. There is cur­rent­ly no nurse in the Sen­ate Demo­c­ra­t­ic cau­cus; Ander­son would offer a valu­able per­spec­tive as the Leg­is­la­ture works to con­front the coro­n­avirus pandemic.

A vic­to­ry for Ander­son would also cement the trans­for­ma­tion of the East­side’s Sen­ate del­e­ga­tion. As of the end of 2014, it was all men with views rang­ing from pret­ty con­ser­v­a­tive to par­tial­ly pro­gres­sive: Andy Hill, Steve Lit­zow, Rod­ney Tom, and Mul­let. Now, it could be all women: Man­ka Dhin­gra, Lisa Well­man, Pat­ty Kud­er­er, and Ander­son. That’s quite the change in just six years.