Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden remains on track to win Washington State by a margin not seen in a presidential race since the 1960s, a survey conducted last week for the Northwest Progressive Institute has found.
60% of likely voters surveyed said Biden was their choice for President of the United States, while 37% said they were voting for Donald Trump.
2% were not sure.
These numbers are almost identical to our previous findings from last May and from a year ago (October of 2019). This new data point just reinforces that the vast majority of Washingtonians were prepared long ago to vote either to reelect Donald Trump or vote to replace him with his Democratic challenger.
In our May 2020 survey, 59% expressed support for Biden, 37% expressed support for Trump, and 5% were not sure. In our October 2019 survey, 59% preferred Biden, 37% preferred Trump, and 3% were not sure.
(Note that figures don’t always add to one hundred percent due to rounding.)
Biden’s support has now increased slightly to 60% while Trump’s support has remain unchanged. The number of undecided voters has diminished.
The figures also mirror — exactly — our finding concerning Donald Trump’s job performance, which makes sense. The same 60% of Washingtonians who disapprove of Trump’s job performance are presumably voting for Biden, while the 37% who approve are Trump backers who want Trump to get a second term.
Here are the statewide numbers again, and the exact question we asked:
QUESTION: In the 2020 presidential election, are you voting
for Democrat Joe Biden, or Republican Donald Trump?
- Joe Biden: 60%
- Donald Trump: 37%
- Not sure: 2%
Now, here are the numbers by age, party, and gender identity:
QUESTION: If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
- 18 to 29: 71% for Biden, 29% for Trump
- 30 to 45: 65% for Biden, 31% for Trump, 4% not sure
- 46 to 65: 57% for Biden, 42% for Trump; 2% not sure
- 65 & older: 57% for Biden, 40% for Trump, 3% not sure
- Democratic: 92% for Biden, 7% for Trump, 1% not sure
- Republican: 91% for Trump, 7% for Biden, 2% not sure
- Independent: 64% for Biden, 30% for Trump, 6% not sure
- Women: 65% for Biden, 33% for Trump, 3% not sure
- Men: 57% for Biden, 41% for Trump, 2% not sure
- Nonbinary gender identity: 33% for Biden, 65% for Trump, 1% not sure (note the margin of error for the nonbinary gender subsample is extremely high because only a few respondents identified as nonbinary)
Our survey of six hundred and ten likely 2020 Washington State voters was in the field from Wednesday, October 14th through Thursday, October 15th.
It utilizes a blended methodology, with automated phone calls to landlines and text message answers from cell phone only respondents.
The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.0% at the 95% confidence level.
No presidential ticket has captured more than sixty percent in Washington State since Lyndon Baines Johnson and Hubert Humphrey in 1964. It looks like Joe Biden and Kamala Harris could be in LBJ and Humphrey territory this year.
There will be some minor party candidates listed on Washingtonians’ ballots that were not included as choices in our poll, and those candidates are sure to get some votes. The actual election results are thus guaranteed to be different than our finding this month and earlier this year. However, it will be interesting to see if the gap between Biden and Trump ends up being about twenty-three points or so, which is what we’ve been seeing consistently in our polling for years.
Unlike with state and local offices, the positions of President and Vice President of the United States are not restricted to two sets of candidates (or, to be more accurate, two elector slates, because we don’t directly elect the President and Vice President of the United States.) For all other offices, Washington State law allows only two candidates to be listed on the general election ballot.
Voting in the 2020 presidential election is currently in progress and is set to conclude on November 3rd, 2020 at 8 PM Pacific in Washington State.