Hurricane Irma heading for the United States; Florida will take direct, devastating hit

Sun­shine will soon be but a mem­o­ry in the Sun­shine State, with the most pow­er­ful Atlantic hur­ri­cane ever record­ed set to roar ashore in a mat­ter of hours.

“If” is no longer a ques­tion. Irma is com­ing and it’s going to be bad.

Manda­to­ry evac­u­a­tions have been ordered for most of Flori­da’s coastal com­mu­ni­ties and offi­cials are brac­ing for what could be the state’s costli­est dis­as­ter ever. Class­es and sport­ing events have been can­celed, build­ings are being board­ed up, and hos­pi­tals are mov­ing patients. There’s also been a run on basic sup­plies. In some loca­tions, gas, bot­tled, water, and gro­ceries have become scarce.

North­bound traf­fic on the state’s major inter­state high­ways is heavy as res­i­dents make their way out of the hur­ri­cane’s expect­ed path. Flights out of Flori­da, mean­while, are hard to find as all the tick­ets have been snapped up.

Amtrak is sus­pend­ing all ser­vice in, to, and from Flori­da plus the Geor­gia coast begin­ning tomor­row. No alter­na­tive trans­porta­tion will be provided.

Offi­cials now fear Irma could cause unprece­dent­ed dam­age to Flori­da — and only weeks after Hur­ri­cane Har­vey did the same to Texas and Louisiana.

Just how cat­a­stroph­ic South Flori­da lead­ers fear Hur­ri­cane Irma could be became evi­dent Thurs­day when Mia­mi-Dade Coun­ty ordered an evac­u­a­tion the may­or called “unprece­dent­ed,” as hope dimin­ished that the Cat­e­go­ry 5 beast would some­how avoid us.

“We have to pre­pare for the worst,” May­or Car­los Gimenez said moments after instruct­ing more than 650,000 peo­ple to get out.

His deci­sion, announced after a lengthy inter­nal analy­sis of flood maps and pro­jec­tions of poten­tial­ly dead­ly storm surge, made the Nation­al Hur­ri­cane Center’s Thurs­day fore­casts final­ly sink in: Irma is set to hit the Flori­da penin­su­la direct­ly, though exact­ly where con­tin­ues to be uncertain.

Increas­ing­ly grim-faced emer­gency man­agers across the state did not hes­i­tate. Evac­u­a­tions extend­ed from the Flori­da Keys to Palm Beach and beyond, as coun­ties along Florida’s east coast eyed the storm’s pro­ject­ed path north.

Even Geor­gia required its coastal res­i­dents to leave.

Speak­ing of Geor­gia, here’s an update from Savan­nah:

The mes­sage from emer­gency offi­cials to Savan­nah area res­i­dents is sim­ple: Go west and go soon.

“We are pret­ty much assured that we are going to get some­thing from this storm,” said Den­nis Jones, direc­tor of the Chatham Coun­ty Emer­gency Man­age­ment Agency. “It all depends how that storm comes up the coast of Flori­da as to how bad of an impact it will be to us. But we’re pret­ty con­fi­dent we’re going to get some­thing from this storm.”

With Irma impacts look­ing more inevitable here with each update from the Nation­al Hur­ri­cane Cen­ter, Gov. Nathan Deal on Thurs­day announced a manda­to­ry evac­u­a­tion order for Chatham Coun­ty that will begin 8 AM Saturday.

At that time all lanes on Inter­state 16 will be flow­ing west.

Jones said even ear­li­er depar­tures could help fam­i­lies avoid clogged roads. His own fam­i­ly is head­ed to Dublin on Fri­day, he said.

A manda­to­ry evac­u­a­tion order requires all res­i­dents, busi­ness­es and vis­i­tors and oth­ers in the tar­get area to evacuate.

Refus­ing to com­ply is a mis­de­meanor under the coun­ty code pun­ish­able by up to 60 days in jail and up to a $1,000 fine. While res­i­dents are unlike­ly to be charged, peo­ple who vio­late the order are putting their lives and fam­i­lies in jeopardy.

Prepa­ra­tions are under­way in Savan­nah to pro­tect build­ings from the storm. Savan­nah has twen­ty-two his­toric squares in down­town that are at least par­tial­ly shel­tered by sur­round­ing build­ings, but may still take dam­age from Irma.

Pub­lic employ­ees will stay in town as the hur­ri­cane pass­es through to ensure the pumps con­tin­ue to oper­ate. They’ll ride out the storm from places of safety.

Near­by Tybee Island is already emp­ty­ing out, as its only road link to the main­land is expect­ed to be sub­merged by flood­ing in short order.

Any­one think­ing of stay­ing behind in Irma’s path needs to know that they will be on their own if they do. Calls for help will go unan­swered; first respon­ders will not be ven­tur­ing out to pro­vide assis­tance when the storm hits.

“We will not go out. We will pro­tect our employ­ees and hun­ker down,” said Mia­mi Beach police chief Dan Oates, in com­ments report­ed by the Mia­mi Her­ald.

The winds will prob­a­bly be fierce, but the risk of flood­ing is what coastal res­i­dents real­ly need to be wor­ried out. That’s why it’s a good idea to get out — NOW.

The most recent hur­ri­cane warn­ing from the Nation­al Weath­er Ser­vice is grim.

WIND

• LATEST LOCAL FORECAST 
  • Equiv­a­lent Strong Trop­i­cal Storm force wind
  • Peak Wind Fore­cast: 45–60 mph with gusts to 80 mph
  • Win­dow for Trop­i­cal Storm force winds: Sat­ur­day evening until Mon­day afternoon
• CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme 
  • The wind threat has remained near­ly steady from the pre­vi­ous assessment.
  • Emer­gency plans should include a rea­son­able threat for major hur­ri­cane force wind greater than 110 mph of equiv­a­lent Cat­e­go­ry 3 inten­si­ty or higher.
  • To be safe, aggres­sive­ly pre­pare for the poten­tial of dev­as­tat­ing to cat­a­stroph­ic wind impacts. Remain­ing efforts to secure prop­er­ties should now be brought to completion.
  • Extreme­ly dan­ger­ous and life-threat­en­ing wind is pos­si­ble. Fail­ure to ade­quate­ly shel­ter may result in seri­ous injury, loss of life, or immense human suf­fer­ing. Move to safe shel­ter before the wind becomes hazardous.
• POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Dev­as­tat­ing to Catastrophic 
  • Struc­tur­al dam­age to stur­dy build­ings, some with com­plete roof and wall fail­ures. Com­plete destruc­tion of mobile homes. Dam­age great­ly accen­tu­at­ed by large air­borne pro­jec­tiles. Loca­tions may be unin­hab­it­able for weeks or months.
  • Numer­ous large trees snapped or uproot­ed along with fences and road­way signs blown over.
  • Many roads impass­able from large debris, and more with­in urban or heav­i­ly wood­ed places. Many bridges, cause­ways, and access routes impassable.
  • Wide­spread pow­er and com­mu­ni­ca­tions outages.

STORM SURGE

• LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threat­en­ing storm surge possible 
  • Peak Storm Surge Inun­da­tion: The poten­tial for 5–8 feet
    above ground some­where with­in surge prone areas
  • Win­dow of con­cern: Begins ear­ly Sat­ur­day evening
• CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High 
  • The storm surge threat has remained near­ly steady from the pre­vi­ous assessment.
  • Emer­gency plans should include a rea­son­able threat for major storm surge flood­ing of greater than 6 feet above ground.
  • To be safe, aggres­sive­ly pre­pare for the poten­tial of exten­sive storm surge flood­ing impacts. Evac­u­a­tion efforts should now be brought to com­ple­tion. Evac­u­a­tions must be com­plete before dri­ving con­di­tions become unsafe.
  • Life-threat­en­ing inun­da­tion is pos­si­ble. Fail­ure to heed evac­u­a­tion orders may result in seri­ous injury, sig­nif­i­cant loss of life, or human suf­fer­ing. Leave if evac­u­a­tion orders are giv­en for your area. Con­sid­er vol­un­tary evac­u­a­tion if rec­om­mend­ed. Poor deci­sions may result in being cut off or need­less­ly risk lives.
• POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive 
  • Large areas of deep inun­da­tion with storm surge flood­ing accen­tu­at­ed by bat­ter­ing waves. Struc­tur­al dam­age to build­ings, with sev­er­al wash­ing away. Dam­age com­pound­ed by float­ing debris. Loca­tions may be unin­hab­it­able for an extend­ed period.
  • Large sec­tions of near-shore escape routes and sec­ondary roads washed out or severe­ly flood­ed. Flood con­trol sys­tems and bar­ri­ers may become stressed.
  • Severe beach ero­sion with sig­nif­i­cant dune loss.
  • Major dam­age to mari­nas, docks, board­walks, and piers. Many small craft bro­ken away from moor­ings, espe­cial­ly in unpro­tect­ed anchor­ages with some lift­ed onshore and stranded.

FLOODING RAIN

• LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Peak Rain­fall Amounts: Addi­tion­al 8–12 inch­es, with local­ly high­er amounts
• CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate 
  • The flood­ing rain threat has remained near­ly steady from the pre­vi­ous assessment.
  • Emer­gency plans should include a rea­son­able threat for mod­er­ate flood­ing where peak rain­fall totals notably exceed amounts con­ducive for flash flood­ing and rapid inun­da­tion. Res­cues and emer­gency evac­u­a­tions are possible.
  • To be safe, earnest­ly pre­pare for the poten­tial of sig­nif­i­cant flood­ing rain impacts.
  • Dan­ger­ous flood­ing is pos­si­ble. Fail­ure to take action may result in seri­ous injury or loss of life. If flood relat­ed watch­es and warn­ings are issued, heed rec­om­mend­ed actions.
• POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant 
  • Mod­er­ate rain­fall flood­ing may prompt sev­er­al evac­u­a­tions and rescues.
  • Ditch­es and canals may quick­ly become swollen with swift cur­rents and over­spill their banks in a few places, espe­cial­ly in usu­al­ly vul­ner­a­ble spots.
  • Flood waters can enter some struc­tures or weak­en foun­da­tions. Sev­er­al places may expe­ri­ence expand­ed areas of rapid inun­da­tion at under­pass­es, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and park­ing lots take on mov­ing water as storm drains and reten­tion ponds over­flow. Dri­ving con­di­tions become haz­ardous. Some road and bridge closures.

TORNADO

• LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Sit­u­a­tion is some­what favor­able for tornadoes
• CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated 
  • The tor­na­do threat has remained near­ly steady from the pre­vi­ous assessment.
  • When imple­ment­ing emer­gency plans, include a rea­son­able threat for iso­lat­ed tornadoes.
  • To be safe, pre­pare for the poten­tial of lim­it­ed tor­na­do impacts.
  • Lis­ten for tor­na­do watch­es and warn­ings. Be ready to shel­ter quick­ly if a tor­na­do approaches.
• POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited 
  • The occur­rence of iso­lat­ed tor­na­does can hin­der the exe­cu­tion of emer­gency plans dur­ing trop­i­cal events.
  • A few places may expe­ri­ence tor­na­do dam­age, along with pow­er and com­mu­ni­ca­tions disruptions.
  • Loca­tions could real­ize roofs peeled off build­ings, mobile homes pushed off foun­da­tions or over­turned, large tree tops and branch­es snapped off, shal­low-root­ed trees knocked over, mov­ing vehi­cles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

If you have any rel­a­tives or friends in Flori­da or coastal Geor­gia, now would be a good time to check on them and ask if they’ve evac­u­at­ed or are about to.

Mean­while, Hur­ri­cane Jose is on its way into the Car­ribbean, fol­low­ing Hur­ri­cane Irma, and is like­ly to deal a sec­ond punch to islands that already felt Irma’s wrath.