Randy Pepple’s gut was wrong again: 45th LD’s Andy Hill won’t run for governor in 2016

This just in: Repub­li­can State Sen­a­tor Andy Hill (R‑45th Dis­trict: Unin­cor­po­rat­ed King Coun­ty, Kirk­land, Red­mond, Wood­inville, Sam­mamish, Duvall) will not be a can­di­date for Gov­er­nor of Wash­ing­ton State in next year’s pres­i­den­tial elections.

In a mes­sage sent out to his email list, Hill announced that, after some con­sid­er­a­tion, he has ruled out a chal­lenge to Demo­c­ra­t­ic Gov­er­nor Jay Inslee.

He writes:

Many of you have spo­ken with me over the past sev­er­al months and have encour­aged me to con­sid­er becom­ing a can­di­date for gov­er­nor in 2016. I am hum­bled so many of you would think that I could make a dif­fer­ence and I’m hon­ored by the tremen­dous out­pour­ing of sup­port on my behalf. I believe strong­ly that this state lacks lead­er­ship and that we des­per­ate­ly need a new voice and a new direc­tion. And, while I also believe it is a great time polit­i­cal­ly to under­take this effort, I’ve decid­ed it would not be best for the Hill fam­i­ly at this time. While Mol­ly and the kids have always sup­port­ed my efforts and worked along-side many of you on my cam­paigns, the fact remains that I have two kids in high school this year– a senior con­sid­er­ing col­leges and a fresh­man new to the high school expe­ri­ence. I want to be there for them.

The past year and a half has been excit­ing with a high-pro­file re-elec­tion cam­paign, fol­lowed quick­ly by a long leg­isla­tive ses­sion. Many of you may remem­ber me on the cam­paign trail jok­ing about how there was a card­board cut-out of me at home while I ran for re-elec­tion. This leg­isla­tive ses­sion meant even more time away from my fam­i­ly and I know a statewide cam­paign would con­tin­ue that absence far too long. Despite the kids’ assur­ances, Dad knows best on this one.

2016 is an impor­tant year. I plan to work hard on the issues and for the can­di­dates who can make a dif­fer­ence for Wash­ing­ton fam­i­lies. There’s so much at stake and much to do. I hope you’ll com­mit your­self to help­ing advance our goals and once again, thank you so much for your con­tin­ued sup­port. I hope you had a great sum­mer vaca­tion and are enjoy­ing the return to school. I know I’m going to enjoy being there for this excit­ing part of my kids’ lives.

Hill had been seen by a num­ber of Repub­li­cans as an ide­al can­di­date for gov­er­nor. Notably, for­mer Sec­re­tary of State Sam Reed met with him ear­li­er this year and encour­aged him to be a can­di­date.

In a recent sto­ry about Wash­ing­ton’s 2016 guber­na­to­r­i­al race, Rob McKen­na con­fi­dante and Repub­li­can strate­gist Randy Pep­ple pre­dict­ed to KING5 Tele­vi­sion that Hill would get into the race. From KING5’s report­ing (empha­sis mine):

The oth­er rumored Repub­li­can hope­ful pos­si­bly con­sid­er­ing a run is State Sen­a­tor Andy Hill (R‑Redmond). He’s avoid answer­ing ques­tions on the sub­ject, so far, but Repub­li­can strate­gist Randy Pep­ple says don’t count him out.

“My gut tells me that Andy Hill, Sen­a­tor Hill, is going to get into the race,” Pep­ple said.

Looks like Randy Pep­ple’s gut was wrong… again.

Pep­ple had been pre­vi­ous­ly bull­ish about the prospect of a Rob McKen­na vic­to­ry in 2012. When it did­n’t hap­pen, Pep­ple began to grouse about the exis­tence of Seat­tle (and par­tic­u­lar­ly the heav­i­ly Demo­c­ra­t­ic 36th and 43rd Dis­tricts), which helped pro­pel Jay Inslee to vic­to­ry. And he has hard­ly stopped since.

The way Pep­ple talks, you’d think he actu­al­ly believes Seat­tle vot­ers robbed McKen­na of the gov­er­nor­ship…  as if that most impor­tant of offices were a hered­i­tary posi­tion passed down from one attor­ney gen­er­al to the next.

But Wash­ing­ton’s gov­er­nor­ship is not a throne. Jay Inslee won it fair and square. And Inslee seems well-posi­tioned to do well in 2016.

Though the state’s Repub­li­can estab­lish­ment claims Inslee is vul­ner­a­ble, polls indi­cate he would beat any­one who Repub­li­cans might put up against him.

And as of yet, the Repub­li­can estab­lish­ment has­n’t been able to find a can­di­date it likes. Seat­tle Port Com­mis­sion­er Bill Bryant is run­ning, but his cam­paign got off to some­what of a rocky start, and has since been most­ly invisible.

State Par­ty Chair Susan Hutchi­son seems to be pin­ning her hopes on recruit­ing Dave Reichert into the race, but it’s not clear that Reichert will run, or that even if he does, he would be a com­pelling chal­lenger to Inslee. Reichert once famous­ly told a gath­er­ing of Repub­li­cans that he votes the way his cau­cus tells him to.

It’s an open secret that Reichert’s staff do a lot of his heavy lift­ing. That’s helped keep Reichert going in Con­gress, but it won’t work in a guber­na­to­r­i­al campaign.