We finally have some election returns of our own to pore over and analyze now. So let’s turn our attention to what’s happening here in the real Washington.
As of a few minutes ago, both of the statewide initiatives on this year’s ballot were losing (Tim Eyman’s initiative on initiatives, I‑517, and I‑522, to label genetically modified foods). The vote against I‑517 is huge — more than sixty percent. It’s more than we were hoping for. We’re absolutely delighted.
It’s pretty clear that I‑517 is doomed. It’s a huge victory over Tim Eyman and his initiative factory. No Eyman initiative has been so far behind on Election Night since I‑892 in 2004. (I‑892 was Eyman’s attempt to allow casinos to blanket the state with electronic slot machines. Then, as now, a cross-ideological coalition of progressives and conservatives succeeded in defeating it).
I‑522 is closer. Although some major counties like Snohomish have yet to report in, I‑522 is losing by around nine points (56% to 44%). I‑522 is ahead in King, Whatcom, Jefferson, and San Juan, but other influential swing counties are turning the measure down, chiefly Pierce and Spokane.
Over the years, we have made the repeated observation here on The Advocate that the key to winning a statewide campaign is to be victorious in the most populous swing counties. King can be outvoted, and it has been many times in the past, such as in 1999, when Eyman’s I‑695 passed, in 2000, when I‑722 passed, and in 2001 when I‑747 passed. It looks like that is happening again tonight with I‑522.
UPDATE, 9 PM: Snohomish is now in, and they’re turning I‑522 down, 51.7% to 48.3%. That is a very bad sign for the Yes campaign. It pretty much closes the door on the possibility of a come-from-behind victory.
The Yes campaign needed a strong showing of support from Snohomish in order to offset bad margins in Spokane, Pierce, and Clark. They’re not getting that.
Counties like Pierce and Spokane are home to a substantial number of voters. When the big swing counties are united against King, they can outvote it, as I explained above. The classic path to victory for a Republican or a conservative group running a statewide campaign is thus to get the swing counties lined up against King.
For progressives, it’s the opposite: Get key counties like Snohomish and Spokane to vote with King so that the progressive vote prevails.
The I‑522 campaign had a presence in the swing counties, but it’s evident that the No side did a good job of framing the debate in a way that resonated with voters in the swing counties. That’s why they are winning tonight.
The debate over I‑517, in contrast, was very one-sided. The coalition NPI helped put together to fight the measure worked hard to educate voters, send people to forums, secure endorsements, and earn media coverage.
The Yes side, on the other hand, hardly campaigned at all.
Tim Eyman chose not to promote I‑517, refusing to appear in public to argue for the measure, and letting Mark Baerwaldt handle media inquiries.
The Yes side ended up being invisible. About all they did was supply op-eds to newspapers and make it to a few editorial board meetings. Otherwise, they did not campaign. Perhaps Eyman figured his presence on the campaign trail would only hurt the initiative… or maybe he just lost interest in it.
Whatever his reasons were for keeping his distance, it made for an unprecedented autumn. We’ve never worked against a Tim Eyman initiative that Tim Eyman wouldn’t campaign for. But there’s always a first time for everything, I suppose.
If Eyman and his cohorts Eddie Agazarm and Paul Jacob were hoping I‑517’s ballot title would carry the initiative to victory, they were sorely mistaken. I‑517 is losing big, and if I had to guess, the margin of victory for us will get wider as more ballots are counted. For the time being, we have a very commanding lead.
I am a progressive voter, but one with a scientific bent. I take my lead on GMOs from publications like Scientific American and other detailed nonpolitical sources. It’s not accurate to assume that all people voting against I‑522 were duped by a misleading industry campaign.
As a DVR owner who skips all ads I never viewed a single one of the I‑522 ads, but I didn’t hesitate to vote against this initiative. Stigmatizing GMOs is one of the worst anti-science trends backed by “liberals” since the exemption of dietary supplements from FDA approval.