At least one of three Republicans who has been contemplating a challenge to Senator Maria Cantwell next year is now telling the media that he plans to officially launch his campaign. Michael Baumgartner, who defeated Democrat Chris Marr in an expensive state Senate race just last year, will hold an announcement event of some sort on Monday, according to news reports.
Baumgartner, thirty-five, has yet to complete his first year of service as an elected official; he was a newcomer last year when he campaigned for Senate. Now he is throwing his hat into the ring for U.S. Senate.
A check of Baumgartner’s voting record indicates he has not consistently participated in Washington State elections. Baumgartner registered to vote on May 1st, 2007, but he did not vote in the primary or general elections that year. He also missed the August winnowing election in 2008 and failed to vote at all in 2009.
In his campaign for state Senate last year, Baumgartner created campaign literature which depicted him in fatigues, according to the Pacific Northwest Inlander, even though he has not served as a soldier. (He has worked in Afghanistan and Iraq — for the State Department — but that doesn’t make him a combat veteran).
In an interview with KING5, Baumgartner assailed Cantwell for “environmental extremism” and “regulatory extremism”, indicating that he sympathizes with the aims of his own radical right wing base (like abolishing the EPA).
Such rhetoric will undoubtedly please tea party Republicans, but it won’t carry Baumgartner to victory. Since winning reelection in 2006, Senator Cantwell has chalked up a mostly populist, mostly progressive voting record. For instance, she wisely voted against the bank bailout in 2008 and against confirming Ben Bernanke for another term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Those votes are hardly going to be a hindrance in her campaign.
Baumgartner is mistaken if he thinks attacking Senator Cantwell’s work to strengthen environmental protection will score him points. During her first term, Cantwell led the effort to filibuster Ted Stevens’ scheme to open up the Arctic Refuge to drilling. It was a highlight of her 2006 reelection campaign.
When the polls closed on November 7th, 2006, the Associated Press waited less than a minute to proclaim Cantwell the winner. And when official results became available, it was evident that Cantwell was on her way to a landslide win over Republican Mike McGavick. Cantwell ultimately received nearly 57% of the vote. She won every county in western Washington except Lewis County, and she won the most populous counties in Eastern Washington as well (Spokane and Yakima).
Even if Baumgartner managed to sweep eastern Washington next year (which McGavick failed to do in 2006) he would still lose to Cantwell because most of the population lives on the western side of the Cascades. He can only win if he campaigns effectively on the west side. Unfortunately for Baumgartner, many voters on the west side have a strong environmental ethic, and are likely to find his attacks on Senator Cantwell’s work repulsive.
Baumgartner is not the only Republican considering a challenge to Senator Cantwell. Former Bloomberg Television anchor Philip Yin is also said to be preparing to launch a campaign later this month.
Some news outlets have suggested that Dave Reichert is considering going up against Cantwell, but we think that’s unfounded speculation. There were rumors last cycle that Reichert would be drafted as Senator Patty Murray’s Republican opponent, but nothing at all came of that. Reichert is unlikely to vacate his seat, especially since the district lines are in the process of being redrawn.
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