Read a Pacific Northwest, liberal perspective on world, national, and local politics. From majestic Redmond, Washington - the Northwest Progressive Institute Advocate.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Burner/Reichert race remains tight

Why, King and Pierce county elections offices, oh why do you torture us so?

Results continue to trickle in from both counties at a pace I expect some snails would consider leisurely.

Today's results swung the race over to Reichert's side when a batch of Pierce county results were reported to the Secretary of State's office, putting Reichert in the lead by a bit over a thousand votes.

King County retorted at 2:30 with results of its own, narrowing Reichert's lead to just over 600 votes.

Now Pierce county is back again with an evening result, pushing Reichert back to a lead of (at the moment) 1867 votes.

So far, King County has managed to count 40% of its ballots with an estimated 357,000 ballots left to count, while Pierce is hanging in at 36% reporting and an unknown number of ballots remaining (source: this page). If I had to guess, though, I'd say Pierce county has about 137,000 ballots left to go--see bottom of this post if you care about the math.

Generally speaking, Darcy's results will be better in King County, and Reichert's results will be better in Pierce. So, with each county's reporting times interleaved as they are, we can expect this yo-yo game to continue till the end--when King County gives new numbers, the result will swing towards Darcy, and vice versa.

The best news for Burner supporters in all this is almost certainly that King County has considerably more ballots left to process than Pierce. Not all of them are from the 8th district but a proportionate share of them ought to be (anyway, I am unaware of any reason why the outstanding ballots would necessarily be clustered from any particular area), so we can expect that as both counties work towards 100% reporting, that Darcy's numbers should improve overall.

Whether it will be enough to swing the result to Burner's favor remains to be seen. King County will have its next turn at the game this evening at 11:30. Stay tuned...

[Math, for those who care:

King County's 40.27% reporting figure means 59.73% left to count. That number, multiplied by its roughly 30% share of the total Washington electorate (about 1.98 million voters), equals 357,000 ballots remaining. Or so the Secretary of State's website says. Pierce County isn't telling how many they have left to count, but we know they've got 63.29% of theirs left to count. Pierce county is about 11% of the electorate. So, 63% times 11% times 1.98 million gets us to a rough guess of 137,000 ballots left.]


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