Offering frequent news and analysis from the majestic Evergreen State and beyond, The Cascadia Advocate is the Northwest Progressive Institute's unconventional perspective on world, national, and local politics.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Analyzing the Oregon Democratic presidential primary (map included!)

Most of the vote from yesterday's big primary in Oregon has now been counted, and while the outcome was a nearly double digit blowout for Barack Obama, there's more to the results than one simple narrative. Not all Oregonians voted for Barack Obama, but the state isn't split into rival urban Obama versus rural Clinton camps as some might have expected. The result is actually a complex patchwork.

There is one notable trend - the rural areas where Barack Obama spent time campaigning in gave him more votes (for example, in Pendleton and Bend, Oregon). This is very encouraging news because it means that Obama can win people over if he simply ventures off the beaten path.

Adding to what Kari Chrisholm has done with the Senate race, I've created a map of the Oregon presidential primary, showing the results by county. What's cool about this map is that it shows you the degree to which the candidate won.

The higher the percentage Obama or Clinton got, the darker the county is colored. The more competitive it was, the lighter the county is colored. Take a look:

Oregon Presidential Primary Election Results Map

No county went above seventy percent for Obama, although a couple of them came close. Multnomah, Lane, Benton, Hood River, and Deschutes went big for Barack. Clinton pulled in a huge victory in only one municipality, Morrow County. Everywhere else, it was Obama or Clinton by single digits.

In Wheeler, Baker, and Harney counties (out in the east), neither Clinton nor Obama broke the fifty percent ceiling. Apparently there were quite a few write-ins.

Major cities, including Portland (and suburbs), Salem, Eugene (and Springfield), Bend, Corvallis, and Medford all went for Barack Obama.

Clinton claimed southeast Oregon, while Obama took most of the southwest. Both candidates split the coast. Amusingly, the pattern of the coastal counties, looking north to south, was Obama, Clinton, Obama, Obama, Clinton, Clinton, Obama.

The Willamette Valley was all Obama, save for one rebel outpost - Linn County.

The candidates also divided central Oregon between them. Obama racked up a big victory in Deschutes, but Clinton took Crook County (no rhyme intended). Things might have gone differently in Crook County if Obama had detoured to Prineville from Bend, but of course, a candidate can't be everywhere.

With the Oregon primary over and done with, the entire Pacific Northwest is now united behind Barack Obama...and strongly so.

Our region has spoken with a definite and consistent voice. Our preference for the nomination could not be clearer: Washingtonian, Idahoan, and Oregonian Democrats want Barack Obama for President.


Blogger Jonathan said...

I am trying to convince my Senator that it is time for her to declare for Obama. I live in Washington state and Sen. Cantwell has promised to support the candidate who won the most states and the pledged delegate count. Additionally, Obama won Washington by a delegate count of 3-1. Sen. Cantwell is very responsive to her constituents normally, but now she is benefiting from our inaction.

Please, if you are from the state of Washington or have family from the state, fax her or call her DC and state offices.

Her DC fax number is 202-228-0514.

Maybe we can do this today.

May 22, 2008 11:04 AM  

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